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怎麼理解風險

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padding-bottom: 100%;">怎麼理解風險

What exactly is meant by the word "risk"? The word is certainly used frequently in everyday conversation and seems to be well understood by those using it.

To most people, risk implies some form of uncertainty about an outcome in a given situation. An event might occur and, if it does, the outcome is not favourable to us; it is not an outcome we look forward to. The word "risk" implies both doubt about the future, and the fact that the outcome could leave us in a worse position than we are in at the moment.

Writers, particularly in America, have produced a number of definitions of "risk".

Risk is the possibility of an unfortunate occurrence.

Risk is a combination of hazards.

Risk is unpredictability -- the tendency that actual results may differ from predicted results.

Risk is uncertainty of loss.

Risk is the possibility of loss.

Looking at the definitions there does seem to emerge some kind of common-thread running through each of them. Firstly, there is an underlying idea of uncertainty, what we have referred to as doubt about the future. Secondly, there is the implication that there are different levels or degrees of risk. Thirdly, there is the idea of a result having been brought about by one cause or causes.

If a child is playing in the middle of a busy road; if a workman is using a machine while he is unaware, that it is faulty and dangerous; if the pedestrians are unaware that a wall running alongside a pavement is a dangerous condition and about to collapse, what will happen to them? There is an element of risk and uncertainty in each of these situations. The child may escape free of injury, the machine may hold out until the workman has finished using it and the wall may not collapse and injure passersby. Alternatively, there could be serious injury in each case. Uncertainty can exist in the abstract, it is not dependent on being recognized as existing by those who may be most directly involved. Uncertainty is linked more to the event itself, rather than to any personal perception of the existence of uncertainty.

“風險”這個詞的真正含義是什麼?這個詞在我們的日常會話中經常出現,它似乎被人們所理解。

對大多數人來說,風險指的是,在特定情況下某種結果的不確定性形式。某種事件可能會發生,如果發生,其結果對我們不利。它不是我們期望的結果。“風險”既包含着對未來的疑慮,又包含着發生的結果將使我們處於比現在更糟的境地。

許多學者,特別是美國的學者,他們對風險的概念下了一些定義:

風險是不幸事故發生的可能性。

風險是——切危險的綜合體。

風險是一種無法預測的,其趨勢是,實際後果可能不同於預測後果。

風險是損失的不確定性。

風險是損失的可能性。

綜合以上定義,有一種共同的思路貫穿於每個定義之中,那就是我們已經提到過的對未來的疑慮。第二,定義意味着風險存在不同的水準和不同級別。第三,定義包含這樣—個思想,即風險是由於某個原因或某些原因帶來的一種結果。

如果一個小孩在繁華的道路中玩耍;如果一個工人正在使用機器而不知道機器有毛病或有危險;如果過往的行人不知道人行道旁的圍牆處於危險狀態並要倒塌,那麼將會發生什麼情況?每種情況都有風險和不確定性的因素,小孩有可能逃避傷害,機器有可能不會發生意外,圍牆可能沒有傷害過往行人。與此相反,也許每種情況都可能發生嚴重的傷亡事故。不確定性存在於抽象之中,它不依賴於那些有直接聯繫的人是否承認它的存在,與不確定性聯繫的主要是事件本身,而不是人們對不確定性存在的認識。

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