治理機制是理解新興市場的關鍵
Most attempts to define emerging markets start from a macroeconomic perspective, but the results often bear little relationship to the reality of equity investing.
多數定義新興市場的嘗試是從宏觀經濟角度出發的，其結果往往與股市投資的現實關係不大。
As equity specialists we place the interests of the minority investor firmly at the centre of our approach. We conclude that the distinction between emerging and developed markets is no longer useful for investors, and should be replaced by a more intense focus on individual countries, using the categorisation of ‘Governance Regimes’ as a starting point for analysis.
作爲股票專家，我們將少數股權投資者的利益牢牢置於我們研究方法的核心。我們得出的結論是，新興市場與發達市場之間的差異不再對投資者有用，取而代之的應當是更爲專注地關注單個國家，利用“治理機制”分類作爲分析的起點。
The three major intellectual underpinnings of emerging equity markets as a distinct and coherent asset class have come apart since the 2008/09 financial crisis.
自2008/09年金融危機以來，新興市場股票作爲一個獨特且連貫的資產類別的3大理論支柱已瓦解。
Emerging market growth rates have slowed, casting doubt on the argument that per capita incomes will converge over time.
新興市場增速已經放緩，使“人均收入將隨着時間的推移而趨同”的主張面臨質疑。
The slowdown in China has undermined the commodity supercycle to the detriment of many emerging economies and equity markets.
中國經濟放緩破壞了“大宗商品超級週期”，這不利於很多新興經濟體和股市。
The assumption that the major political features of emerging markets would converge towards the US/UK model is no longer valid, as most have moved towards less liberal forms of governance in the wake of the crisis.
“新興市場的主要政治特徵將與英美模式趨同”的假設不再成立，因爲在金融危機過後，多數新興國家轉向不那麼自由的治理模式。
The move away from liberal models of sovereign and corporate governance has been the key driver of both the deterioration in economic growth prospects and the poor returns from emerging equity markets.
背棄自由化的主權和公司治理模式，是近年經濟增長前景惡化以及新興市場股市回報率低的主要推動因素。
The dominance of state-directed models of sovereign and corporate governance in China, Russia, Brazil and elsewhere, has undermined the return on invested capital across a large part of the corporate sector, thereby reducing productivity and potential GDP growth across their respective economies.
在中國、俄羅斯、巴西等國，由政府主導的主權和公司治理模式佔據支配地位，這削弱了很大一部分企業部門的投資資本回報率，進而降低了相關經濟體的生產率和潛在國內生產總值(GDP)增速。
The potential impact of governance-related issues at both an economic and financial market level was apparent in the financial metrics of the listed corporate sector long before it became apparent to macroeconomic forecasters, who have consistently overestimated EM growth prospects.
早在宏觀經濟預測者（這些人士一向高估新興市場增長前景）明白過來之前，經濟和金融市場兩個層面的治理相關問題的潛在影響，就明顯體現於上市公司的財務指標。
Instead of the existing division between emerging and developed markets, we suggest that investors focus their analysis on the sovereign and governance characteristics of individual countries and markets using a framework based on six types of governance regimes as a starting point.
我們認爲，作爲一個起點，投資者與其像現在這樣關注新興市場與發達市場之間的差異，不如利用一種基於6種治理機制的框架，分析單個國家及其市場的主權和治理特點。
The Ecstrat categorisation of governance regimes is based on the impact of the prevailing system of control within the listed corporate sector together with the broader balance of social, political and financial forces, on the interests of minority shareholders.
Ecstrat對治理機制的分類，基於上市公司的主流控制體系，以及社會、政治和金融因素的整體平衡對少數股東利益的影響。
How the governance regime matrix works
治理機制矩陣如何運轉？
Our methodology to determine the dominant governance regime in each market augments the existing academic literature on the varieties of capitalism with a detailed examination of a series of quantitative and qualitative criteria from the perspective of a minority equity investor.
我們用於確定每個市場支配性治理機制的方法，以有關資本主義的各個變種的現有學術資料爲基礎，輔之以從少數股權投資者的視角出發，對一系列量化和定性標準進行詳細考察。
We start by categorising the control of each of the 3,563 stocks in the Ecstrat database as either dispersed, state, hierarchical (family), founder, network or foreign to determine the dominant system for each market.
我們首先將Ecstrat數據庫中的3563只股票的控制分爲分散、國有、等級制度（家族）、創始人、網絡或外資等類別，以確定每個市場的支配性機制。
We then analyse the relationship between the listed corporate sector and the state, including such factors as the regulatory and fiscal environment, before bringing in other key stakeholders such as the trade unions.
我們接着分析了上市公司與政府的關係，包括監管和財政環境等因素，然後考慮工會等其他關鍵的利益相關者。
Finally, we examine how these factors are reflected in the financial characteristics and operating metrics of the listed companies, in particular how control related factors determine financing and capital investment strategies.
最後，我們考察了這些因素如何反映在上市公司的財務特點以及經營指標上，尤其是控制類因素如何決定融資和資本投資戰略。
The six governance regimes range from liberal and co-ordinated, which include most of what are currently classified as developed equity markets, to hierarchical, guided and authoritarian regimes, which are more characteristic of emerging and frontier markets. The six regimes are as follows:
這6種治理機制從自由和協調的機制（包括目前被列爲發達股市的多數市場）到等級制、有引導的機制乃至威權機制（這些在更大程度上表徵了新興市場和前沿市場）。這6種機制如下：
1. Liberal governance regime (LGR)
1.自由治理機制（LGR）
The characteristics of countries in this regime include a leading role for equity markets and the prioritisation of the rights and interests of minority shareholders. Companies in LGR regimes exhibit a separation of ownership from control, and a high proportion of them have no concentrated controlling shareholder. These countries have open economies with flexible supply sides and often overly light regulation.
實行這種機制的國家的特點是股市發揮重要作用，少數股東權益得到重視。在這種機制下，公司表現出所有權與控制權分離，很多公司沒有權力集中的控股股東。這些國家有着開放的經濟，供應面靈活，往往監管過輕。
Countries in this category include the US, UK, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Ireland.
這類國家包括美國、英國、澳大利亞、加拿大、南非和愛爾蘭。
2. Co-ordinated governance regime (CGR)
2.協調治理機制(CGR)
The characteristics of countries in this regime include a smaller role for equity markets than in LGRs and a role for stock markets that is often subordinate to banks. Corporations in CGR countries often have financial and social stakeholders, including the state and banks, that play an important role in corporate governance. Effective corporate control is usually exercised by block holders or networks and not delegated to managers. Hostile takeovers are rare.
這種機制的國家的特點是股市作用小於自由治理機制，股市的地位往往次於銀行。在這種機制的國家，公司經常有金融和社會利益相關者，包括政府和銀行，它們在公司治理方面發揮着重要作用。實際公司控制權通常由大股東或網絡行使，而不是把權力委託給管理者。敵意收購很少。
Countries in this category include Germany, France, Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Poland and Austria.
這類國家包括德國、法國、挪威、瑞典、荷蘭、瑞士、比利時、波蘭和奧地利。
3. Network governance regime (NGR)
3.網絡治理機制(NGR)
The characteristics of countries in this regime include a dominant role for a network of interlocking ownership interests within the economy. Equity markets are generally subordinate to some companies and/or individuals within the network.
這種機制的國家的特點是，經濟體內部環環相扣的所有權利益網絡佔據支配性地位。股市的角色總體上不如網絡內的一些公司和/或個人。
Corporate control structures often appear opaque to external observers because these networks are rarely transparent. Sovereign and corporate governance structures tend to be very consensus based.
外部觀察人士往往看不懂公司控制結構，因爲這些網絡很少透明。主權和公司治理結構往往在很大程度上基於共識。
This category includes Japan and Taiwan.
這一類包括日本和臺灣。
4. Hierarchical governance regime (HGR)
4.等級治理機制(HGR)
The characteristics of countries in this regime include equity markets dominated by concentrated holdings of mainly family-controlled companies, which are not so subject to political and social constraints as in CGRs.
這種機制的國家的特點是，股市由主要爲家族控股的公司集中持股占主導地位，這些公司不受協調治理機制中的政治和社會限制。
Equity free float as a proportion of total market capitalisation tends to be relatively low. HGR companies tend to give a relatively low priority to the interests of minority shareholders and many are characterised by blurred boundaries between the state and private sector, resulting in moral hazard.
自由流通股佔總市值的比例相對較低。等級制度的公司往往將少數股東的利益排在相對較低的位置，而且很多公司的特點是政企之間界限模糊，引發道德風險。
This category includes South Korea, India, Philippines, Greece, Turkey, Spain, Italy, Mexico, Hong Kong, Brazil (increasingly authoritarian), Portugal, Chile, Indonesia and Thailand.
這一類包括韓國、印度、菲律賓、希臘、土耳其、西班牙、意大利、墨西哥、香港、巴西（該國越來越威權）、葡萄牙、智利、印尼和泰國。
5. State-guided governance regime (SGR)
5.政府引導的治理機制(SGR)
The characteristics of countries in this regime include state guidance in a high proportion of financial and capital-intensive economic activity to facilitate national economic development, but the economy is also subject to market-imposed disciplines.
這種機制的國家的特點是，大量金融和資本密集型經濟活動存在政府引導，以促進國民經濟發展，但經濟也受市場強制的紀律的約束。
The currency and capital account are generally subject to controls, and equity markets tend to be dominated by state-related companies and financial institutions, but private companies also have a relatively high level of autonomy.
匯率和資本賬戶一般受到管制，股市傾向於由與政府相關的企業和金融機構主宰，但私營企業也享有相對高度的自治。
The category included the Asian newly industrialising economies (NIEs) in their earlier development phase. Currently included are Singapore, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates.
這類國家包括處於較早發展階段的亞洲新興工業化經濟體。目前包括新加坡、馬來西亞和阿聯酋。
6. Authoritarian governance regime (AGR)
6.威權治理機制(AGR)
The characteristics of countries in this regime include state dominance over the listed corporate sector, either through direct control or via a capability to intervene directly in the private sector.
這種機制的國家的特點是政府主宰上市公司部門，要麼通過直接控制，要麼通過直接干預私營部門的能力。
The equity market is generally relatively small relative to GDP, while listed state-controlled companies will always place social and political considerations above the interests of external shareholders. The corporations typically have very low levels of external accountability and financial transparency and high levels of moral hazard.
股市規模相對於GDP一般較小，上市的國有控股企業總是將社會和政治考量置於外部股東利益之上。這些公司的外部問責水平和金融透明度一般很低，道德風險很高。
The countries in this category include Russia, China, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Argentina, Venezuela, Iran and Kazakhstan.
這類國家包括俄羅斯、中國、越南、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔爾、阿根廷、委內瑞拉、伊朗和哈薩克斯坦。
Governance regimes do not constitute investable asset classes, but are a framework for country-based investment analysis. Of course, we recognise that most regimes are hybrids, often of more than two regimes, but these categories make a better starting point for further analysis than the existing division between emerging and developed.
治理機制並不構成可投資的資產類別，而是一個基於國家的投資分析框架。當然，我們承認，多數機制是混合型的，經常包括兩種以上的機制，但與現有的新興市場與發達市場的區別相比，這些分類對於深入分析是個更好的起點。
