爲什麼成功的投資者善於管理情緒?大綱

A PROMISE OF spring is renewal and rebirth. In climates that experience a long, cold winter, the warmer temperatures and budding flowers represent signs of hope. The saying "April showers bring May flowers" is another phrase that describes the promise of spring.

春天象徵着新生。經歷了漫長而又寒冷的冬季後，回升的氣溫和含苞待放的花朵兒都代表着希望。老話說"四月的雨帶來五月的花"，不過是春之希望的另一種說法。

These sentiments also apply to investing. It may be constructive to view "winter" as a market downturn (although in human emotions, this is accompanied by fear and panic, which is usually not elicited by a normal winter). Spring could be the gradual (and as history shows, inevitable) rebound to a bull market.

這種情緒也適用於投資。將"冬季"視作投資市場低潮可能是建設性想法（儘管通常還伴隨着擔憂和恐慌，正常情況下，冬季並不會引發這兩種情緒）。春天，股市將慢慢迴歸至牛市（歷史表明，這是不可避免的）。

The S&P 500 index is in striking distance of its all-time high of 2,940, which it reached in late September just before it rolled over into a three-month correction. That fourth-quarter downtrend erased the index's gains for the entire year of 2018.

自去年9月創下最高點2940點以來，標準普爾500指數持續下跌，並在10至12月份進行了股市調整。第四季度的急跌走勢，將2018年的全年漲幅盡數抹去。

Then came renewal, in the form of a fresh uptrend that began with only three trading days left in the year. No, the nascent market rally did not correspond precisely with the change in seasons, but the metaphor still applies.

之後開始回升：2018年末的最後三個交易日內，開始出現上漲走勢。新生市場的走勢與季節的變化並不完全一致，但這一比喻仍舊適用。

The rally that began in late December is part of a much longer bull market that got under way in March 2009. Since then, the S&P 500 has risen 327%.

12月底的反彈實則是2009年3月開始的較長週期的牛市的一部分。自2009年以來，標準普爾500指數已上漲327%。

The aging bull may be getting somewhat long in the tooth. It's certainly due for a major correction at some point, but no one - including prognosticators in the "guru" class - knows when.

病態牛市差不多快要到頭了。重大調整一定會發生，但沒有人知道重大調整的具體時間--包括"大師"級別的預測家。

There are ways to protect yourself in a market correction so you enjoy the all-but-certain turnaround that eventually sends stocks higher. But the steps to shore up your portfolio are not necessarily what you might think. It's not easy to sit through a severe downturn and stick to your pre-determined strategy; you may feel an impulse to do something - anything - to stem the bleeding.

市場調整時，保護自己不受波動，以便得到股票升值的絕佳轉機。但保值的方法不一定就是你所想的那樣。歷經嚴重下跌並堅守預先確定的策略並不是件易事；你可能會衝動的想做些什麼--來阻止股市下跌。

Broad asset-class diversification is important. This may be disappointing to hear, as it flies in the face of the "take action" impulse. Contrary to popular belief, investing is an exercise in managing your emotions, not an exercise in logic.

資產類別多樣化十分重要。這聽起來可能令人大失所望，因爲這與"採取行動"的衝動截然相反。但與人們普遍的看法相反，投資是一種管理情緒的練習，而不是一種邏輯練習。