“俄羅斯黑客門”最新波折的五大看點

We are long past the point where the story of Donald Trump became stranger and more lurid than a Hollywood movie. Tuesday brought a fresh and astonishing twist: the news that the US intelligence agencies have briefed both the president and the president-elect on a series of damaging allegations made against Mr Trump. The document containing the allegations has been published, so they are now common knowledge. Here are five points to bear in mind, when considering this news.

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的故事比好萊塢電影的情節更加奇葩、更加聳人聽聞——這一點早已不是新聞。週二出現了一個新鮮和令人驚愕的情節轉折：有報道稱，美國情報機構向總統和當選總統兩人都通報了一連串不利於特朗普的指控。相關文件包含的具體指控已經發表，因此它們現在已經人盡皆知。以下是消化這條消息時值得記住的五個要點。

1. The two most damaging allegations are that there was illicit communication between the Trump campaign and the Russian government and that the Russians have compromising material on bizarre sexual behaviour by Mr Trump. These allegations have been circulating among many news organisations (including the Financial Times) for weeks. But, until now, nobody had yet published them because they are unproven.

1.其中兩個指控最具破壞性：一是特朗普競選團隊曾與俄羅斯政府進行見不得人的溝通，二是俄方掌握着有關特朗普古怪性行爲的污點材料。這些指控在許多新聞組織（包括英國《金融時報》）中流傳了好幾周。但此前沒有一家媒體發表，因爲它們未經證實。

2. These allegations are being taken seriously. Mr Trump has already dismissed the story as fake news and a political witch-hunt. The fact that no reputable news organisation has been able to corroborate them also damages the credibility of the charges. On the other hand, as an excellent Lawfare blog observes: “The president and president-elect do not get briefed on material that the intelligence community does not believe to be at least of some credibility.” But it should also be noted that some of the charges already seem to be falling apart. Mr Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, who is alleged to have met Russian operatives in Prague, has tweeted that he has never been to Prague in his life.

2.這些指控正得到認真對待。特朗普已經完全否認這條消息，稱其爲假消息和政治迫害。沒有一家聲譽良好的新聞機構能夠證實這些指控，這一事實損害了相關指控的可信度。另一方面，正如法律網站Lawfare上一篇精闢的博客文章所指出的：“總統和當選總統不會得到情報界不相信至少有一些可信度的材料的簡報。”但也應該指出，其中一些指控似乎已經被證明站不住腳。被指曾在布拉格與俄羅斯特工見面的特朗普的律師邁克爾?科恩(Michael Cohen)在Twitter上寫道，他從來沒有去過布拉格。

3. The broader context is important. One reason why these allegations are potentially so damaging is that they fit into a broader narrative. For months, political analysts have been scratching their heads about why Mr Trump is so pro-Russian. More recently, there has been speculation about why the president-elect was so dismissive of allegations of Russian hacking during the election. The most obvious explanation is simply that Mr Trump resents anything that casts doubt on the legitimacy of his election. However, there have also long been theories that Russian intelligence had some damaging Kompromat (compromising material) on Mr Trump.

3.整體背景是重要的。這些指控具有潛在巨大破壞力的一個原因是，它們與一個整體的敘述相符。數月來，政治分析人士一直對特朗普爲何如此親俄羅斯感到匪夷所思。最近，對於當選總統爲何對有關選舉期間俄羅斯發動黑客攻擊的指控如此不屑一顧，有人作出了猜測。最顯而易見的解釋是，特朗普憎惡任何質疑他當選合法性的說法。然而，長期以來一直有理論認爲，俄羅斯情報機構掌握着特朗普的污點材料(Kompromat)。

4. The immediate impact is likely to be limited. Some of Mr Trump’s opponents hope that these stories are so explosive that they could yet prevent Mr Trump becoming president. This is highly unlikely. The inauguration takes place on January 20. Mr Trump has comprehensively denied the allegations. However, the president-elect’s press conference on Wednesday should be quite a spectacle. There is a certain irony to the fact that Mr Trump, who spent many months peddling a false allegation that President Barack Obama was not born in the US, should now be complaining about “fake news”.

4.直接影響很可能是有限的。特朗普的一些反對者希望這些故事具有如此巨大的爆炸力，以至於它們可以阻止特朗普成爲總統。這是極不可能的。就職典禮將於1月20日舉行。特朗普已全面否認了這些指控。然而，當選總統週三舉行的記者會相當有看頭。有一個事實具有一定諷刺意味：曾經花了很多個月來兜售有關巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統不是在美國出生這一虛假指控的特朗普，現在抱怨起“假消息”來。

5. The long-term impact could be damaging. It is possible that, in the coming days, these allegations will be comprehensively debunked. In that case, they will not hurt Mr Trump. They could even help by casting doubt on all the many other allegations that are certain to be hurled at him during his presidency. However, if Congress and the intelligence agencies insist on digging further into these stories and into the general issue of Russian hacking, the Trump White House will be weakened.

5.長期影響可能是破壞性的。在接下來的幾天裏，這些指控有可能得到全面駁斥。在那種情況下，它們不會傷害特朗普。它們甚至可能幫助他，因爲它們將使他擔任總統期間肯定會面對的其它很多指控變得不那麼可信。然而，如果國會和情報機構堅持進一步追查這些故事，追查俄羅斯對美髮動黑客攻擊的整個問題，特朗普執掌的白宮將被削弱。

The worst case would be that Mr Trump is dogged by a long-running investigation. It is worth remembering that the Watergate scandal, which originated in events during an election, took two years before it eventually forced President Nixon’s resignation. The sexual allegations against Mr Trump — although vigorously denied — are also damaging to the new president’s dignity. It is not good to take the oath of office against a background of sniggering.

最糟糕的情況是特朗普被曠日持久的調查所困擾。值得記住的是，當年的水門事件醜聞起源於選舉期間發生的事情，但在兩年後才最終迫使尼克松總統辭職。針對特朗普的性指控——儘管已被強烈否認——還有損新總統的尊嚴。在竊笑的人羣面前宣誓就職不是件好事。