奧蘭多恐襲陰影籠罩美國總統大選

Sharply contrasting approaches to the Orlando shootings from the two main US presidential candidates yesterday exposed a yawning gulf in their responses to terrorism and underscored the divisive and combustible role it is set to play in the November election.

美國兩位主要總統候選人昨日對奧蘭多槍擊事件作出反差鮮明的迴應，揭示了他們在如何應對恐怖主義問題上的明顯鴻溝，並突顯了這個問題將對11月大選產生的分裂和煽動作用。

Donald Trump, the Republicans’ presumptive presidential nominee, accused America’s Muslims of failing to report dangerous radicalisation in their areas and called for more US citizens to be armed, as he doubled down on a hardline approach that he hopes will cement his credentials as an uncompromisingly hawkish president-in-waiting.

共和黨推定總統候選人唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)指控美國的穆斯林未能報告自己所在當地出現的危險的激進化現象，並呼籲更多美國公民攜帶武器。他變本加厲地押注於強硬立場，希望這將夯實他作爲一個決不妥協的鷹派總統候選人的資質。

Mr Trump also played to the conspiracy theorists on the Republican side of politics, using interviews yesterday to hint opaquely at links between Barack Obama, the US president, and Islamist radicals.

特朗普還迎合了共和黨方面的陰謀理論家，利用昨日的訪談含沙射影地暗示美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)與伊斯蘭主義激進分子之間存在聯繫。

Mr Trump said that the president “either is not tough, not smart, or he’s got something else in mind”. He cast aspersions on the president’s motivations, saying people could not believe that the president did not mention the words “radical Islamic terrorism”. “There’s something going on,” he said.

特朗普表示，奧巴馬總統“要麼是不堅強，不聰明，要麼是他還有別的什麼念頭”。他對美國總統的動機提出質疑，稱人民簡直無法相信總統到現在還沒有用“激進的伊斯蘭恐怖主義”這個表述。“肯定有點不可告人的事情，”他說。

Hillary Clinton for the Democrats by contrast warned against demonising Islam and demanded a dedicated team tasked with tracking down lone-wolf terrorists, as well as tougher gun control laws, as she adopted a more measured tone.

與此形成對比的是，民主黨方面的希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)警告各方不要妖魔化伊斯蘭，並要求組建一支專職團隊追查“獨狼”恐怖分子，並收緊槍支管制法律。她採取了更有分寸的基調。

Terrorism has the potential to play a highly unpredictable role in the November election as public anxiety rises following the attacks in Paris, Brussels and San Bernardino, California.

恐怖主義問題可能在11月美國大選中扮演一個高度不可預測的角色，因爲在巴黎、布魯塞爾和加利福尼亞州聖貝納迪諾遭遇恐襲後，公衆焦慮上升。

Mr Trump’s words reflect a calculation that his aggressive rhetoric paid dividends during the Republican primaries and will continue to do so when voters go to the polls this autumn.

特朗普的話反映出這樣的盤算，即他在共和黨初選階段期間咄咄逼人的言論收效不錯，並將在今年秋天選民去投票的時候繼續奏效。

Norm Ornstein, an expert on US politics at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said however it was unclear that the tough talking that benefited Mr Trump in the fractious environment of the primaries would work in the general election.

然而，立場保守的美國企業研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的美國政治專家諾姆•奧恩斯坦(Norm Ornstein)表示，尚不清楚在四分五裂的初選階段讓特朗普受益的強硬論調，在大選中是否也能打動選民。

“Trump represents an enormous risk and right now people are not willing to take that risk,” he said. The property investor’s initial reaction was “ego-driven, raw and insensitive. There was nothing about the victims. It was just ‘thanks to all of you who say I was right all along on terrorism’.”

“特朗普代表着一個巨大的風險，眼下人們不願承擔這個風險，”他說。身爲房地產投資者的特朗普的第一反應是“自我驅動、缺乏經驗和不夠敏感的。沒有對受害者表示任何哀悼，而只是‘感謝所有那些說我在恐怖主義問題上一向正確的人們’。”

Elizabeth Zechmeister, political science professor at Vanderbilt University, said that terrorism left people “less trusting, more authoritarian, more willing to give up their rights and the rights of others, more hawkish”. The question, however, was what constituted strong leadership: Mr Trump’s belligerence or Mrs Clinton’s experience.

範德堡大學(Vanderbilt University)政治學教授伊麗莎白•切赫梅斯特(Elizabeth Zechmeister)表示，恐怖主義讓人們“信任度降低，更擁護威權，更願意放棄自己的權利和其他人的權利，更加鷹派”。但問題是，哪些質素構成強有力的領導：特朗普的好戰還是希拉里的經驗？

“I think what we’re going to see in the campaign down the road is the candidates are going to try to project their own image of strength, resolution and resolve and push on the other candidate to reveal weakness,” she said.

“我認爲在下一階段的競選中，我們將看到兩位候選人試圖樹立自己強有力、堅決和堅定的形象，同時迫使對方暴露弱點，”她說。

Mr Trump’s aggressive approach also carried security risks, analysts warned. Max Boot, a senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the US had done a better job than Europe in assimilating its Muslim population and that Mr Trump could undermine that record.

分析人士警告，特朗普咄咄逼人的姿態還帶有安全風險。美國對外關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)國家安全問題高級研究員馬克斯•布特(Max Boot)表示，美國在接納和同化穆斯林人口方面一直比歐洲做得更好，而特朗普可能破壞這個記錄。

“He is turning Muslims into the enemy; it is very dangerous,” he said. “We need those relations to be strong to get the kind of intelligence to stop terrorists before they strike.”

“他正在把穆斯林推向敵人一邊；這是非常危險的，”他說。“我們需要與穆斯林建立聯繫，才能變得強大，獲得能夠在恐襲發生之前制止恐怖分子的情報。”

The killings also reignited America’s debate over gun control. Mr Obama said yesterday that the US needed to think about the risks it was taking by being “so lax in how we make very powerful firearms available to people in this country”.

奧蘭多屠殺事件也再度引燃美國圍繞槍支管制的辯論。奧巴馬昨日表示，美國需要深思“我們國家讓人們這麼容易獲得火力強大的槍械”給自己帶來的風險。

Mr Trump, on the other hand, told CNN that if more people in the Pulse nightclub had been armed with guns the same kind of tragedy would not have taken place because they could have returned fire.

另一方面，特朗普對美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)表示，如果脈動(Pulse)夜總會當時有更多人帶着槍，他們就可以開槍還擊，這場悲劇就不至於這麼血腥。

Stephen Craig, director of the political campaigning programme at the University of Florida, said Mr Trump was unlikely to win votes if he continued to talk about the attacks in an inflammatory way. “He’s not saying intelligent things,” he said. “As much as anything it’s ‘Oh my God what would this guy do with the nuclear codes?’”

佛羅里達大學(University of Florida)政治活動課程主任斯蒂芬•克雷格(Stephen Craig)表示，如果特朗普繼續以煽動性的方式談論恐襲，他就不太可能贏得選票。“他的話不可理喻，”他說,“除了其他事情外，人們會想‘天哪，讓這傢伙掌握核武器發射密碼不知道會發生什麼？'”

There were signs in polls taken before the Orlando killings that many voters are uneasy with Mr Trump’s ability to handle a crisis and the responsibilities of the presidency. A national survey taken by Gallup in May found 48 per cent of people thought Mrs Clinton “would display good judgment in a crisis” versus 39 per cent for Mr Trump.

在奧蘭多恐襲之前進行的民意調查中，有跡象表明許多選民對特朗普處理危機和總統職責的能力感到不放心。蓋洛普(Gallup)在5月進行的一項全國調查發現，48%的人認爲希拉里“將在危機中展現良好的判斷力”，只有39%的人對特朗普作出這樣的評判。