蔡英文的政治蜜月不會太長

Tsai ing-wen will become the most powerful woman in the Chinese world when she is sworn in as Taiwan’s president on Friday but she will not have much time to toast her historic achievement.

蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)在本週五（5月20日）宣誓就任臺灣總統後，將成爲華人世界權力最大的女性，但她不會有太多時間來慶賀自己的歷史性成就。

The cat-loving former law professor faces a daunting to-do list, managing relations with a hostile Beijing government while attempting to revive an economy in recession and assuage hardliners in her party who want Taiwan to push for formal independence.

這位愛貓的前法學教授面臨着一份艱鉅的待辦事項列表，她需要處理好與不友好的北京方面的關係，試圖重振處於衰退中的經濟，同時控制住她所在政黨內部想要推動臺灣正式獨立的強硬派。

Beijing claims the self-governing, democratic island as one of its provinces and is deeply suspicious of Ms Tsai’s Democratic Progressive party, which won presidential and legislative elections in January after vowing to reduce Taiwan’s reliance on China and boost economic growth.

北京方面宣稱這個自治、民主的島嶼是中國的一個省份，對蔡英文所屬的民進黨(DPP)抱有深切疑慮。民進黨以降低臺灣對中國大陸的依賴和促進經濟增長爲競選綱領，在今年1月贏得總統和立法院選舉。

In the four months since the elections, China has shown its displeasure with the DPP’s unprecedented double victory by resuming a battle with Taiwan for diplomatic allies and curbing the number of tourists travelling to the island.

在臺灣舉行選舉後的四個月裏，中國大陸對民進黨獲得前所未有的雙重勝利表現出不滿，再度與臺灣爭奪外交盟友，並減少赴臺遊客數量。

“The biggest challenge Ms Tsai faces is preserving a positive relationship with the mainland, which is inextricably linked to the domestic agenda of revitalising the economy,” said Bonnie Glaser, an expert on Taiwan at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think-tank. “If she does not have good ties with China, China is likely to pursue Taiwan in ways that will have a detrimental effect on the economy.”

“蔡英文面臨的最大挑戰是保持與大陸的積極關係，這與重振經濟的島內議程有着千絲萬縷的聯繫，”華盛頓智庫——戰略與國際問題研究中心(CSIS)的臺灣問題專家葛萊儀(Bonnie Glaser)表示。“如果她不能同中國大陸建立良好關係，大陸很可能以不利於臺灣經濟的方式來對付臺灣。”

The economy has shrunk for three consecutive quarters as Taiwan’s electronics companies and other manufacturers have suffered from the slowdown in neighbouring China, its biggest export market, and weak global demand.

臺灣經濟已連續三個季度萎縮，其電子企業和其他製造商受到鄰近的中國大陸經濟放緩乃至全球需求疲軟的影響；中國大陸是臺灣最大的出口市場。

In addition to the short-term contraction, Taiwan also faces a deeper malaise with graduate starting salaries having stagnated for years despite sharp rises in housing and other living costs.

除了短期的收縮外，臺灣還面臨着更深層次的低迷，島內的畢業生起薪已停滯多年，儘管住房和其他生活費用大幅上漲。

Lin Shao-hung studied tourism at university and hoped to become a management trainee in the hospitality industry.

林少鴻（音，Lin Shao-hung）在大學讀的是旅遊專業，那時他希望成爲酒店業的管理培訓生。

But, like many young Taiwanese, the 24-year-old has found it difficult to find a good job and ended up working in the housekeeping department at a Taipei hotel for two years.

但是，像許多臺灣青年一樣，現年24歲的他發現很難找到一份好工作，結果在臺北某家酒店的客房部打了兩年工。

“I hope it will get better under Tsai,” he said, echoing the view of many of the young voters who helped sweep her into office.

“我希望在蔡英文領導下形勢會變好，”他表示。這話呼應了幫助把蔡英文選上臺的很多年輕選民的觀點。

The conundrum for the new president, who studied law at the London School of Economics, is that she is under pressure from DPP supporters to boost growth while keeping a distance from China.

曾在倫敦政治經濟學院(London School of Economics)學習法律的新總統面臨的難題是，她受到民進黨支持者的壓力，要提振經濟增長，而同時又要與中國大陸保持一定距離。

Analysts say that if she fails to keep Beijing onside, the Chinese government is likely to create further economic difficulties for Taiwan by reducing trade, investment and tourism, as well as leaning on other countries to reject trade talks with the island.

分析人士表示，如果她未能爭取到北京方面的配合，中國大陸政府很可能會通過減少貿易、投資和赴臺旅遊人數，給臺灣製造進一步的經濟困難，同時施壓其他國家拒絕與臺灣展開貿易談判。

Beijing will be paying close attention to the language on cross-strait relations in her inauguration speech but that is just the beginning of what will be a very delicate balancing act.

北京方面將密切關注蔡英文就職演說中涉及兩岸關係的措辭，但這將只是一種非常微妙的平衡把握的開端。

“Ms Tsai has a significant political mandate and a lot of political capital but her honeymoon may be very short,” said Ms Glaser.

“蔡英文擁有可觀的政治授權和大量的政治資本，但她的蜜月期可能很短，”葛萊儀表示。