敘利亞和平掌握在美俄手中

Last week, as President Obama entertained the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner and Britain indulged in a bizarre debate about whether Hitler was a Zionist, more than 200 people were killed in a brutal bombardment of Aleppo. The breakdown of Syria’s fragile ceasefire promises yet more suffering in a five-year long war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and created millions of refugees.

上週，當美國總統奧巴馬(Obama)在白宮記者協會(White House Correspondents Association)晚宴上娛樂賓客、英國沉溺於關於希特勒是否是猶太復國主義者這種匪夷所思的辯論時，超過200人在阿勒頗(Aleppo)的野蠻轟炸中遇難。敘利亞長達5年的內戰造成了數十萬人遇難、數百萬人流離失所，如果脆弱的停火協議土崩瓦解，還會造成更多痛苦。

Yet, amid all the misery, there is hope. It is possible that this year could witness two huge and positive developments. The first would be the military defeat of the jihadis of Isis, who could lose their two major strongholds in Syria — the towns of Raqqa and Deir al-Zour. The second crucial development would be the achievement of a peace deal between the Syrian regime and the non-jihadi rebels.

儘管局勢充斥着各種痛苦，但希望猶存。今年有可能出現兩大積極進展。第一項進展是“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)聖戰分子或將遭遇軍事失敗，可能失去在敘利亞的兩個主要據點——拉卡市(Raqqa)和代爾祖爾(Deir al-Zour)。第二項至關重要的進展是敘利亞政權和非聖戰分子叛軍之間或將達成和平協議。

The key to both developments is close co-operation between Washington and Moscow. Despite the obvious tensions between Russia and the United States, their views of the Syrian conflict have been converging, laying the basis for a joint approach to defeating Isis and ending the war.

取得這兩項進展的關鍵在於華盛頓方面和莫斯科方面的密切合作。儘管俄羅斯和美國明顯關係緊張，但是兩國對敘利亞衝突的看法日趨一致，這爲打敗ISIS、結束敘利亞戰爭的雙方聯合行動奠定了基礎。

The Americans have moved furthest. Rhetorically, the US is still committed to the idea that “Assad must go”, a goal first stated by President Obama back in 2011. In practice, the rise of Isis means that the Americans’ priorities in Syria have changed. Defeating the jihadist threat is now their overriding aim. To achieve that end, the Americans are prepared to tacitly ditch the goal of “regime change” in Syria — although they are still insisting, for the moment, that President Assad himself must be removed as part of a peace settlement.

美國方面做出的努力最大。口頭上，美國仍然堅持“阿薩德(Assad)必須下臺”的想法，該目標於2011年由奧巴馬總統首次提出。而實際上，ISIS的崛起意味着美國人在敘利亞的首要任務已經變了。如今，消滅聖戰分子的威脅是他們最重要的目標。爲實現這一點，美國人準備默默放棄實現敘利亞“政權更迭”的目標——儘管他們目前仍然堅持稱，作爲和平協議的一部分，敘利亞總統阿薩德本人必須下臺。

Russia’s movement is less dramatic but still important. In the early stages of their military campaign in Syria, the Russians seemed to have little interest in taking on the most radical jihadis. The Americans reckoned that only 10 to 20 per cent of Russian strikes were aimed at Isis. The rest concentrated on the other jihadi groups or the moderate opposition to the Assad regime.

俄羅斯方面的努力沒那麼顯著，但也很重要。在敘利亞採取軍事行動的早期階段，俄羅斯人似乎對打擊最激進的聖戰分子沒什麼興趣。美國人估計，俄羅斯在敘利亞進行的軍事打擊僅有10%-20%是針對ISIS的。其餘行動均針對其他聖戰組織或者阿薩德政權的溫和反對派。

This ambiguity about the war aims of the Russians is still there. Aleppo is not held by Isis but is the current target of a brutal regime offensive backed by the Russians. Nonetheless, the Obama administration believes that, in recent months, the Russians and the Syrian government have become much more serious about attacking Isis. They point to the recapture last month of the city of Palmyra, which had been occupied by Isis.

俄羅斯人在敘利亞的戰爭目的仍然含糊不清。阿勒頗並非由ISIS控制，但當前卻是由俄羅斯人支持的政府軍野蠻攻擊行動的目標。儘管如此，奧巴馬政府認爲，最近數月，俄羅斯政府和敘利亞政府對於打擊ISIS的態度已經認真多了。他們提到，此前被ISIS佔領的巴爾米拉(Palmyra)上個月已被收復。

Indeed, the US now thinks it entirely possible that the Syrian regime, backed by Russian firepower, will move to ret ake both Raqqa and Deir-al-Zour, before the end of the year. On one level, this would be a welcome development for Washington. But it would also risk looking like a humiliation for the Obama administration, which, having assembled a 62-nation “global coalition” to defeat Isis, would have to stand by and see the Assad regime and the Russians do the job for them.

的確，眼下美國認爲，擁有俄羅斯火力支持的敘利亞政權完全有可能在今年年底前奪回對拉卡市和代爾祖爾的控制權。在某種程度上，此事將受到華盛頓方面的歡迎。但是，這也有可能像是對奧巴馬政府的羞辱——美國爲打擊ISIS而組織的62國“全球聯軍”不得不袖手旁觀，看着阿薩德政權和俄羅斯軍隊爲他們完成這項任務。

There are two ways that the Americans might handle such a situation. The first would be to concentrate US efforts on fighting Isis in Iraq, helping the government in Baghdad to retake Mosul, the largest city held by the jihadis. The second, more controversial, idea would be to lend active support to the Syrian regime and the Russians in the fight to ret ake Raqqa.

美國可能有兩種辦法解決此類局勢。第一種將是全力以赴打擊伊拉克的ISIS，幫助巴格達政府奪回被聖戰分子佔據的最大城市——摩蘇爾。第二種辦法更具爭議性，即在奪回拉卡的戰鬥中向敘利亞政權和俄羅斯人提供積極支持。

As things stand, it would be politically impossible for the US administration to work directly with the Assad regime and the Russians. However, if the departure of Mr Assad can be arranged, then some sort of joint military offensive against Isis involving the regime, the Russians, the Kurds and the US-led coalition might yet emerge. The Russians, it is hoped, might be willing to give up Mr Assad in return for the western recognition of their role in Syria that they have long craved.

照目前來看，美國政府直接與阿薩德政權和俄羅斯人打交道在政治上是不可能的。然而，如果可以安排阿薩德下臺，那麼敘利亞政權、俄羅斯人、庫爾德人以及美國領導的聯盟仍可能組織起某種打擊ISIS的聯合軍事行動。外界希望，俄羅斯人可能願意放棄阿薩德，以換取西方承認他們在敘利亞的角色——這是他們長期以來夢寐以求的。

The fate of Mr Assad is the most difficult issue facing the diplomats trying to negotiate a Syria peace settlement in Geneva. But there are also many other contradictions and tensions besetting the peace talks. The Turkish and Saudi governments do not really share the Americans’ goals in Syria. The Turks’ primary obsession is defeating the Kurds, whom the Americans regard as their most capable allies in Syria. The Saudis want to see the overthrow of the Assad regime as part of their regional struggle with Iran.

對於在日內瓦努力斡旋和平解決敘利亞問題的外交官們來說，阿薩德的命運是他們面臨的最棘手的問題。但和平談判還面臨其他許多矛盾和緊張關係。土耳其和沙特政府與美國人在敘利亞的目標並非真正一致。土耳其最看重的是擊敗被美國人視爲在敘利亞最可靠的盟友——庫爾德人。沙特人則希望將推翻阿薩德政權視爲與伊朗地區爭鬥的一部分。

It is also entirely possible that the fragile co-operation between Russia and the US in Syria could be swept to one side by other developments. Last week, there was a near confrontation between Russian and American jets over the Baltic Sea. The Nato summit in Warsaw in July could also see a further escalation of tensions between Russia and the west, as Nato presses ahead with the deployment of troops in the Baltic states and Russia stations nuclear weapons in the enclave of Kaliningrad.

俄羅斯和美國在敘利亞的脆弱合作也完全有可能因其他事態而被擱置一邊。上週，俄羅斯和美國的飛機在波羅的海上空幾乎發生衝突。今年7月北約(NATO)在華沙的峯會也可能讓俄羅斯和西方的緊張局勢進一步升級，因爲北約加快推動在波羅的海國家部署軍隊，而俄羅斯則在加裏寧格勒州飛地部署核武器。

It will be very hard for the Americans and Russians to compartmentalise their relations, co-operating in the Middle East as they confront each other in eastern Europe. Nonetheless, even at the height of the Ukraine crisis, Washington and Moscow did manage to work together on the Iran nuclear deal.

美國人和俄羅斯人將很難一碼歸一碼地處理他們之間的關係——在東歐對峙的同時在中東展開合作。然而，即便在烏克蘭危機最嚴重期間，華盛頓與莫斯科也的確在伊朗核協議方面成功展開過合作。

For all their rivalries and mutual mistrust, it is crucial that Russia and the US find a similar way to work together on bringing peace to Syria and defeating Isis. Without Russian-American co-operation, Syria can only expect further years of tragedy and death.

儘管俄美兩國是對手而且彼此不信任，但至關重要的是，兩國能夠在促成敘利亞和平和打擊ISIS方面以同樣的方式實現合作。如果沒有美俄合作，只能預計敘利亞還會經歷多年的悲劇和死亡。