希拉里面臨關鍵考驗 Hillary Clinton's big complicated world
An odd thing happened at Donald Trump’s victory rally last week. Having evaded his bouncers, I made my way to the centre of the throng as it awaited The Donald’s arrival. The crowd erupted into boos when Hillary Clinton appeared on the television screen. You could hear a pin drop when Bernie Sanders popped up a few minutes later.
在唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)最近的慶功會上發生了一件奇怪的事情。在避開特朗普的保鏢後，我擠入了等待特朗普到來的人羣中間。當希拉裏克林頓(Hillary Clinton)出現在電視屏幕上時，人羣中爆發出一片噓聲。而當幾分鐘後伯尼儠德斯(Bernie Sanders)出現時，四周靜得落針可聞。
It was the respect shown by one anti-establishment wave to another. The contrast spoke volumes. They may come from opposite ends of the political spectrum but they are united in antipathy to Mrs Clinton.
這是一個反當權派陣營對另一個反當權派陣營展示的尊重。前後的對比充分說明了這點。他們或許來自政治圖譜的兩個相反的極端，但是他們在反感希拉里上是一致的。
It is not easy being Mrs Clinton. During the 1990s she was excoriated as a bra-burning feminist who wanted to socialise the US’s healthcare. Back then it was the establishment who detested her. Today, she is reviled by women and men alike for personifying the establishment. Moreover, her opponent, Mr Sanders, wants to socialise healthcare: Canada and the UK are the single-payer models he would emulate. Mrs Clinton, meanwhile, is disdained for not wanting to match him. Whatever she does, vilification is assured. As I said, it cannot be easy being Mrs Clinton.
希拉里不容易。在上世紀90年代，人們指責她爲希望把美國醫保制度社會主義化的激進女權主義者。那時，厭惡她的正是當權派。如今，她因爲代表着當權派而受到攻擊，攻擊她的人既有男性，也有女性。此外，她的競爭對手桑德斯希望將醫保制度社會主義化：加拿大和英國的單一給付制是他希望效仿的的模板。希拉里則因不認同他的提議而遭到蔑視。無論她做什麼，必然會引來罵聲一片。正如我所說的，希拉里的處境不容易。
It is about to become harder. In less than two weeks, Mrs Clinton must win the South Carolina primary. Unlike New Hampshire, which was always likely to “feel the Bern”, South Carolina is solid Clinton territory. It is the first state in her so-called southern firewall against Mr Sanders’s bandwagon. The latest polls give her a 30-point lead. If her margin of victory is below double digits, doubts about her electability will grow. If she wins decisively, last week will look like a blip. A breach in the firewall, on the other hand, could finish her. There is a lot riding on South Carolina.
希拉里的處境會愈發艱難。她必須贏得即將到來的南卡羅來納州的初選。新罕布什爾州原本就是一直可能被桑德斯拿下的，南卡羅來納州則毋庸置疑是希拉里的地盤。這是她對抗桑德斯陣營的所謂南部防火牆的第一個州。最新的民調顯示，希拉里在南卡領先30個百分點。如果她在南卡勝出的領先幅度低於兩位數，人們對於她能否拿到總統候選人資格就將愈發懷疑。如果她在南卡取得了壓倒性勝利，最近的結果看起來就會像是暫時的失利（編者注：希拉里在內華達州民主黨黨團會議的投票中以52%對48%險勝桑德斯）。另一方面，假如南卡失守，她的競選之路就可能走到盡頭。南卡一役有很多看頭。
To seal the deal, Mrs Clinton must perform Houdini-like feats. She must find a way of beating Mr Sanders without going negative. That is the biggest lesson from her New Hampshire defeat. More than nine out of 10 rated Mr Sanders as more honest and trustworthy than Mrs Clinton — and they were just the Democratic voters. Second, she needs to bring Mr Sanders down without sounding like a Republican. His plans would push US federal spending up to European levels. Puncturing his dreams without alienating liberals will be a challenge. Third, she must stick to her Obama-third-term script while letting voters know she shares their anger. It is not easy to promise continuity while raging against the status quo.
要漂漂亮亮地打贏這一仗，希拉里必須表現出如魔術大師胡迪尼(Houdini)一般的精湛技藝。她必須找到一種能夠光明正大地打敗桑德斯的方式）。這是她在新罕布什爾的敗選帶來的最重要的教訓。超過十分之九的選民認爲桑德斯比希拉里更誠實正直、更值得信任——而這還只是民主黨的選民。第二點，她需要既打敗桑德斯、又避免聽起來像一個共和黨人。桑德斯的計劃會把美國的聯邦支出推高至歐洲水平。戳破他的幻夢，而又不失去自由主義者的支持，將是一項挑戰。第三點，她必須在堅持“奧巴馬第三任期”打算的同時，讓選民知道她能夠感受到他們的憤怒。一方面承諾將保持政策連續性，另一方面斥責現狀，這不容易做到。
The upside is that figuring out how to defeat Mr Sanders would be good practice for confronting Mr Trump in a presidential election. The two have more in common than their anti-establishment support base. Both have a habit of promising the moon. Mr Sanders would convert the US into a Scandinavian social democracy. Mr Trump would make America great again. Both are arch-fantasists with an ability to recruit voters and appeal to independents. That is where the similarities end. Mr Sanders is a civil opponent. He has refrained from personal attacks on Mrs Clinton’s character. The Donald, on the other hand, knows no boundaries. “If she can’t satisfy Bill Clinton,” he said, “how can she satisfy America?”
好處在於，搞清楚如何打敗桑德斯將會成爲一次很好的練習，有利於希拉里在總統競選中對抗特朗普。特朗普與桑德斯的共同點不止是兩人的主要支持者都反對當權派，兩人還都喜歡開空頭支票：桑德斯想把美國變成一個斯堪的納維亞式社會民主國家；特朗普想讓美國再次成爲一個偉大的國家。兩人都有着天馬行空的幻想，擁有鼓動人心、吸引獨立選民的能力。他們還有一點最大的區別。桑德斯是文明的對手。他始終剋制自己不侮辱希拉里的人格。特朗普則沒有底線。“如果她無法滿足比爾克林頓(Bill Clinton)，”他稱，“她如何能滿足美國？”
How indeed? The key is in reminding voters that level-headedness is a virtue. They are also choosing America’s next commander-in-chief. Mr Sanders’s foreign policy boils down to one promise — he won’t start any wars. The rest is a replay of his 1960s student radicalism. In the latest Democratic debate, Mr Sanders’s grasp of the world stopped at roughly the midpoint of the cold war. He attacked the US’s overthrow of Iran’s Mossadeq government in 1953. He railed against Henry Kissinger’s secret bombing of Cambodia in the early 1970s. He also stood foursquare behind Franklin Roosevelt’s plea for the US to avoid acting out of fear.
這倒真是個問題。關鍵在於，要提醒選民，頭腦冷靜是一種美德。選總統也是在選美國的下一任總司令。桑德斯的外交政策可以歸結爲一個承諾——他不會發動任何戰爭。其他部分則是重申他在上世紀60年代的學生激進主義。在最近一場民主黨辯論中，桑德斯對世界的理解幾乎還停留在冷戰中點。他抨擊了美國1953年推翻伊朗莫薩德克(Mossadeq)政府的舉動。他痛斥了亨利 格(Henry Kissinger)上世紀70年代初祕密轟炸柬埔寨的行爲。他還堅定不移地支持富蘭克林圠斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)懇求美國避免因恐懼而採取行動的立場。
He was right on every point. But his grasp of the US’s present-day challenges is considerably weaker. When asked to name a foreign policy adviser, Mr Sanders mentioned Lawrence Korb at the Center for American Progress. Mr Korb has met Mr Sanders once for a short briefing. Mr Sanders’s plan to defeat Isis is to persuade “the Muslim countries” to form a coalition. This would involve a highly improbable alliance between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In reality, they would be likelier to turn their guns on each other. “It is a big, complicated world out there,” Mrs Clinton reminded him in last week’s debate.
他說的都沒錯。但是對今日美國面臨的挑戰，他的理解則薄弱得多。當被要求說出一位外交政策顧問時，桑德斯提到了美國進步中心(Center for American Progress)的勞倫斯科布(Lawrence Korb)。科布見過桑德斯一次，爲他做了短暫的簡報。桑德斯挫敗“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的計劃是說服“穆斯林國家”組成聯盟。這意味着伊朗和沙特阿拉伯結盟——事實上是極爲不可能的。在現實世界中，兩國更可能刀兵相見。“那是一個龐大而複雜的世界，”希拉里在最近的辯論中提醒他道。
At 74, it seems a little late for Mr Sanders to catch up on his homework. Mr Trump, on the other hand, gladly ad to having no advisers. According to him, the US is being screwed by its allies and beaten by its adversaries. As a world class dealmaker, he will put both those issues right. If he needs experts he will hire them. Meanwhile he will “bomb the shit” out of Isis. That is about it.
桑德斯已經74歲了，對他來說現在再去趕功課似乎有點晚了。特朗普則欣然承認他沒有顧問。在他看來，美國如今被盟友坑慘了，還遭受着敵人的痛擊。作爲一個一流的交易撮合者，他會把兩個問題統統擺平。如果他需要專家的話，他會聘請他們。與此同時，他會把ISIS“炸出翔”。這差不多就是他的計劃了。
Mrs Clinton’s immediate fate will be determined by issues closer to home. Can she bring out the African-American vote in South Carolina? Will women return to the fold? The big picture matters to them too. Whatever your view of her, no rival has anything close to Mrs Clinton’s foreign policy experience. Mr Sanders and Mr Trump insist judgment is what matters. So here is a test of Mrs Clinton’s political skills: can she convince voters her opponents lack judgment? There is a big curious world out there waiting to find out.
希拉里目前的命運將由跟美國自身更息息相關的問題決定。她能爭取到南卡羅來納的非裔美國人爲她投票嗎？女性選民會回頭支持她嗎？大局也關係到她們。無論你怎麼看待希拉里，希拉里在外交政策上的經驗無人能夠企及。桑德斯和特朗普堅持認爲判斷力纔是最重要的。那麼現在就是考驗希拉里政治技巧的時候了：她能向選民證明她的競爭對手們判斷力不佳嗎？整個世界都在好奇地等待答案揭曉。
