東盟應推進一體化 Asean would be wise to beef up its powers
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations should be an economic powerhouse. Asean’s population of 625m is set to grow by 120m before 2030, adding to an abundant pool of labour that complements bounteous natural resources. Yet the 10-member region punches well below its weight: it accounts for 3 per cent of global gross domestic product but is home to 9 per cent of the world’s population. The underachievement derives in part from political and regulatory diversity that undermines regional competitiveness and inhibits inflows of investment into manufacturing and infrastructure.
東南亞國家聯盟（ASEAN，簡稱東盟）應成爲一個強大的經濟集團。東盟的6.25億人口將在2030年之前增加1.2億，不但可以擴大本就充裕的勞動力儲備，而且該地區還擁有豐富的自然資源。然而，這個10國集團的表現並不盡如人意：東盟擁有世界9%的人口，卻只佔全球GDP的3%。這種不佳表現部分源於成員國在政治和監管方面的多樣性，這削弱了區域的競爭力，抑制了對製造業和基礎設施的投資。
Thus the launch of the Asean Economic Community, due by the end of this year, represents a milestone. The AEC aims to accelerate integration and establish a single market and production base. Hopes for the potential on offer are accentuated by a slowdown that has depressed the region’s GDP growth rate to its lowest level since the 2008/09 financial crisis.
因此，計劃在今年底之前創立的東盟經濟共同體(Asean Economic Community, AEC)具有里程碑意義。AEC旨在加快區域一體化，建立單一的市場和生產基地。對AEC能帶來潛力的期待已因爲經濟放緩而變得更加迫切，該地區的GDP增速下降至2008/09年金融危機以來的最低水平。
On paper, the AEC’s aspirations resemble the early days of the European Economic Community. A blueprint agreed in 2007 envisaged a single market and production base, which included measures to standardise trade tariffs and dismantle non-tariff barriers, plus a free flow of services and investment. It allowed for more liberal migrations of skilled labour and freer interchanges of capital.
表面上看，AEC的目標類似於歐洲經濟共同體(European Economic Community)成立之初的願景。東盟2007年通過的一項藍圖設想了單一的市場和生產基地，其中包括規範貿易關稅、消除非關稅壁壘的措施，以及服務和投資的自由流動。它還允許熟練工人更自由地遷徙以及更自由的資本流通。
Of these, only a generally free trade in goods has materialised. Trade in services remains hobbled by formal and informal barriers while free flows of capital and investment are far from realised. A more liberalised market for skilled labour is so far away that officials rarely bother to mention it. This paucity of progress is having an effect. Intra-Asian trade has declined over the past 18 months, having flatlined during the previous two years. Such a record detracts from expectations. Indeed, the main impediment to integration is to be found among Asean’s founding principles.
這些目標中，只有商品基本自由貿易已經實現。服務貿易仍受困於正式及非正式的壁壘，而資本和投資的自由流動還遠未實現。對熟練工人而言，更自由的市場如此遙不可及，連官員們都很少願意再去提及。這種缺乏進展的局面已經帶來影響。在經過兩年的零增長之後，過去18個月，亞洲內部貿易已經出現下滑。這種表現降低了人們的期望值。實際上，東盟一體化的主要障礙存在於該組織的成立原則之中。
Unlike the EU, which relies on intrusive powers to ensure policy alignment among its members, the body shows no willingness to jettison its cherished “Asean way”, a consensus approach to decision-making that discourages “interference” in the internal affairs of fellow members. Too often this results in a frustrating lack of traction.
與依靠干預性權力確保成員間政策均等的歐盟(EU)不同，東盟並不願意放棄其珍視的“東盟方式”(Asean Way)，而這種要求達成一致的決策方式阻礙了對成員國內部事務的“干預”。由此帶來的結果通常是令人沮喪的前進動力不足。
In addition, there is a debilitating lack of administrative capacity. The Asean secretariat, which is responsible for forwarding the group’s agendas, has a tiny budget ($17m in 2014) and a skeleton staff that lacks the power to enforce adherence to regional initiatives. Progress towards AEC, for example, is assessed retrospectively with a “scorecard” approach that avoids direct criticism of member states.
此外，東盟還缺乏行政管理能力，這是有害的。負責推進組織議程的東盟祕書處的預算很少（2014年爲1700萬美元），祕書處的主要官員也沒有讓各國執行地區動議的權力。例如，用“計分卡”方式對推動AEC的進展進行回顧性評估，以避免直接批評成員國。
These features, however, do not tell the whole story. In spite of Asean’s fuzzy focus on integration, other forces buffeting the region are imparting a more irresistible momentum towards reform. The region is a vital part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which ties Asean members into a programme of trade liberalisation with China, India, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. In addition, Asean states Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei are founding members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement with the US.
然而，這些特徵並不代表全部。儘管東盟自身對一體化態度模糊，衝擊該地區的其他勢力正帶來一種更不可抗拒的改革動力。東盟是“區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定”(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)的重要成員，該協定使東盟成員國加入了一項與中國、印度、韓國、日本、澳大利亞及新西蘭的貿易自由化計劃中。此外，馬來西亞、新加坡、越南及文萊四個東盟國家還是與美國達成的《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）的創始成員國。
It is likely that, even if Asean continues to fight shy of defining its destiny, the promises that members make beyond the region will drive inexorable progress towards integration. Therefore it makes sense to beef up its secretariat’s powers and take a more intrusive approach towards implementing the AEC.
即使東盟依然怯於掌握自己的命運，很有可能的是，其成員國在區域之外所做的承諾將不可避免地推動東盟一體化取得進步。因此，有必要強化東盟祕書處的權力，並採取一種更具干預性的方式來落實AEC。
