安卡拉爆炸案將加劇土耳其國內分裂
If the objective of a terror attack is to sow chaos, the Ankara bombing, which comes less than three weeks ahead of a bitterly contested snap election, appears to have done the job.
如果恐怖襲擊的目的是製造混亂，那麼安卡拉爆炸案似乎已經達到了目的。這起爆炸案距土耳其提前舉行的、緊張激烈的議會選舉只有不到3周時間。
A day after the deadliest attack of its kind in Turkey’s history — with as many as 128 people claimed dead by opposition politicians though official figures remain at 95 — outrage is growing amid claims of official negligence, the country’s politicians are at each others’ throats, a ceasefire between Kurdish insurgents and security forces appears to be dead in the water, and talk of a renewed civil war no longer appears to be premature.
反對派政治人士稱，這起爆炸案導致多達128人死亡，儘管官方的死亡數字仍爲95人。它是土耳其歷史上遇難人數最多的一次恐怖襲擊。慘案發生一天後，土耳其國內憤怒情緒不斷高漲，人們紛紛指責政府官員失職，該國的政治人士正在互掐，庫爾德反政府武裝與土安全部隊之間的停火似乎已經夭折，內戰再起的傳言似乎已不再是杞人憂天。
Instead of bringing the country together, the bombing threatens to tear it further apart, analysts say.
分析人士表示，這起爆炸案沒能讓土耳其團結起來，而是可能會讓該國進一步分裂。
With the Kurdish south consumed by violence, the economy rapidly decelerating, and with part of the electorate intent on seeing its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as a saviour, and the other seeing him as a corrupt autocrat, Turkey is already badly, deeply divided. Any chance of that changing rapidly diminished over the weekend.
由於庫爾德控制的土耳其南部地區暴力活動不斷，土經濟迅速惡化。一些選民傾向於將土總統雷傑普吠伊普埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)視爲救世主，另一些選民則將他視爲腐敗的獨裁者。土耳其已是嚴重分裂，上週末發生的事情讓短時間內改變這種局面的機會變得更加渺茫。
said Sinan Ulgen of Carnegie Europe. “The degree of existing polarisation was so big that it prevented consensus.” The attack is certain to “increase the uncertainty of election results,” added analysts GlobalSource Partners in an emailed note.
卡內基歐洲分部(Carnegie Europe)的錫南踠爾根(Sinan Ulgen)表示：“現有的分歧是如此嚴重，共識很難達成。”GlobalSource Partners的分析師在一份電郵報告中也表示，此次襲擊肯定會“加大選舉結果的不確定性。”
In a statement published on Saturday, just hours after the Ankara bombing, the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) announced that it would cease armed hostilities against Turkish targets so as to calm tensions ahead of the November 1 parliamentary vote, unless it was attacked first. Clashes between the insurgents and security forces resumed in July and have since claimed hundreds of lives.
在上週六——即在安卡拉爆炸案發生幾小時後——發佈的一則聲明中，庫爾德工人黨(PKK)宣佈，除非自己首先遭到攻擊，否則將停止針對土耳其目標的武裝敵對行動，以便在11月1日的議會選舉前緩和緊張局勢。庫爾德武裝與土安全部隊之間的衝突在7月重啓，之後已導致數百人死亡。
The PKK’s offer appears to have fallen on deaf ears. On Sunday, the Turkish army announced that it had bombed the group’s positions in southeastern Turkey and northern Iraq. The same day, two soldiers were reported killed in clashes with the PKK in Erzurum, in the country’s east.
庫爾德工人黨的提議似乎未被理睬。上週日，土耳其軍方宣佈，它已轟炸了庫爾德工人黨位於土東南部以及伊拉克北部的陣地。同一天，據報道有兩名土耳其士兵在該國東部埃爾祖魯姆(Erzurum)與庫爾德武裝的衝突中喪生。
The resumption of those clashes, which have claimed hundreds of lives since July, appears to play into the hands of the group believed to be responsible for the Ankara bombing, Islamic State. “Isis is the party that would benefit most from this action,” said Haldun Solmazturk, a retired brigadier general in the Turkish army, referring to the attack and its aftermath.
土國內衝突再起似乎對伊拉克與黎凡特伊斯蘭國(ISIS)有利。ISIS據信應對安卡拉爆炸案負責。土軍退役准將哈爾敦∠爾馬茲蒂爾克(Haldun Solmazturk)在提到這起爆炸案及其後果時表示：“這次行動的最大受益者將是ISIS。”
On the one hand, Mr Solmazturk says, the group appears to be forcing Turkey to think twice about further involvement in Syria. On the other, it is trying to distract the Kurds, its most formidable foes on the ground, by fanning the flames of its conflict with Turkey. By pitting one of its enemies against the other, says Mr Solmazturk, “it is killing two birds with one stone”.
索爾馬茲蒂爾克表示，一方面，ISIS似乎正迫使土耳其重新考慮對敘利亞的進一步干預；另一方面，該組織正通過加劇庫爾德人與土耳其的衝突，來分散庫爾德武裝的注意力。庫爾德武裝是ISIS在地面戰中最可怕的敵人。索爾馬茲蒂爾克表示，通過讓ISIS的敵人互相打鬥，“該組織正一箭雙鵰”。
Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence Whatever the result of the elections, the fallout from the Ankara attack will be hard to contain, especially as the fight between the PKK and the state threatens to spill over into sectarian conflict. “Whether this crisis will unfold in an outright disaster for the country’s political and economic stability,” Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence,said, “is now a matter of when rather than if.”
不管選舉結果如何，安卡拉爆炸案的後果很難控制，特別是在庫爾德工人黨和土政府之間的鬥爭可能蔓延爲教派衝突之際。Teneo Intelligence的分析師沃爾夫安戈皮科利(Wolfango Piccoli)表示：“說到這場危機會不會演變爲該國政治經濟穩定面臨的一場嚴重災難，現在看來這已不是一個會不會的問題，而是何時會的問題。”
