普京並不高明 This is not a new cold war but something more dangerous
Since February 2013, when President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea, we have found ourselves reaching into the past — specifically to the cold war — to make sense of geopolitics.
自2014年2月俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)吞併克里米亞以來，我們在理解地緣政治時往往需要回顧歷史，確切地說是回顧冷戰時期。
From the 1950s, the USSR had nuclear weapons to compete with American might. It led a military coalition, the Warsaw Pact, that intimidated western Europe. Soviet ideology repudiated all that Nato countries stood for in politics and economics.
從上世紀50年代開始，前蘇聯(USSR)擁有了核武器來與美國角力。它領導了恫嚇西歐的軍事聯盟——華沙條約組織(Warsaw Pact)。蘇聯的意識形態與北約國家在政治和經濟上的所有觀念格格不入。
There were times, notably the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when the world trembled at the prospect of imminent nuclear Armageddon. It remained a constant possibility, by accident or deliberate action, until the late 1980s, when US President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, his Soviet counterpart, began the process of strategic disarmament.
有幾次，迫在眉睫的核末日魅影使世界不寒而慄，特別是1962年的古巴導彈危機。核末日的可能性（無論是出於意外還是蓄意）持續存在——直到上世紀80年代末時任美國總統羅納德里根(Ronald Reagan)和時任蘇聯領導人米哈伊爾戈爾巴喬夫(Mikhail Gorbachev)開始戰略裁軍。
The reaction to Mr Putin’s actions in Ukraine from western leaders was swift and firm. US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and UK Prime Minister David Cameron agreed on economic sanctions. The Russian economy, buffeted by the plunge in world oil prices, sank further. Foreign direct investment dried up. Big Russian businesses joined the capital flight. In his December 2014 annual television message to the Russian people, Mr Putin admitted hard times lay ahead while urging Russians to back him as the man to restore national greatness.
對於普京在烏克蘭採取的舉動，西方國家領導人做出的反應迅速而堅決。美國總統巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)、德國總理安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)以及英國首相戴維慍蕓倫(David Cameron)一致同意對俄羅斯實施經濟制裁。因油價暴跌而遭受衝擊的俄羅斯經濟進一步下滑。外國直接投資枯竭。俄羅斯大型企業加入了資本外逃的行列。在2014年12月向俄羅斯民衆發表年度電視講話時，普京承認俄羅斯面臨艱難時期，同時敦促俄羅斯人支持他實現國家復興。
Russia, humbled in the 1990s, offers fertile soil for nationalism — and the more Mr Putin is criticised by foreign leaders, the higher his domestic ratings. Yet his authoritarian methods leave him vulnerable to the kind of unexpected protests that occur when people decide enough is enough. The miserable fate of Libya’s Muammer Gaddafi is a stark example of what can happen when an autocratic leader falls from favour — and fear of a civil commotion is never far from the Russian president’s mind.
在上世紀90年代失去臉面的俄羅斯，爲民族主義的滋生提供了肥沃的土壤——普京越是受到外國領導人的批評，他在國內的支持率就越高。不過，他的威權做法使他容易在人民覺得受夠了之後遭遇那種意想不到的抗議。利比亞的穆阿邁爾慍乓菲(Muammer Gaddafi)的下場就是威權領導人失去權力後結局的鮮明事例，而對國內民變的恐懼始終讓俄羅斯總統難以釋懷。
This time, threats of nuclear holocaust do not spring so readily to Russian lips. Indeed, a treaty on further strategic arms reduction was signed as recently as 2010.
這一次，俄羅斯人不再輕易說出以核毀滅爲要挾的話。的確，進一步削減戰略武器的條約剛剛在2010年簽署。
Moscow is certainly modernising its armed forces, which have proved more than a match for the Ukrainians — but the Russian technological base is woefully inferior to America’s. Mr Putin may bluster but the reality is that he cannot risk war with Nato unless he and his bloated elite are willing to forgo the benefits of their ill-gotten riches.
莫斯科肯定在推進軍事現代化建設——事實證明俄軍強於烏克蘭軍隊——但是俄羅斯的技術基礎遠遠落後於美國。普京或許嘴上強硬，但現實是，他不敢冒險與北約打仗——除非他和聽命於他的精英階層願意放棄他們聚斂的不義之財。
Russia has developed from the pupa of communism into an authoritarian-capitalist caterpillar. Authoritarianism and market economics can be found together elsewhere in the world, in countries that are far more successful than Russia in diversifying their economies; Singapore is probably a more attractive model. Russia has no allies, save for a crumbling client state in what is left of Bashar al-Assad’s Syria. Moscow sells a lot of military technology to that regime but it is doubtful that Mr Assad pays up any more dependably than Saddam Hussein, who was notorious for running up debts to the Soviet leadership.
俄羅斯已經從共產主義的蛹蛻變成一條威權資本主義的毛蟲。在世界其他地方可以看到威權體制和市場經濟並存的現象，這些國家在推動經濟多元化方面比俄羅斯成功得多；新加坡很可能是個較有吸引力的典範。除了一個搖搖欲墜的附屬國——巴沙爾阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)仍在掌控的那部分敘利亞——俄羅斯沒有其他盟友。莫斯科方面向阿薩德政權出售大量軍事裝備，但是阿薩德在買單方面是否比薩達姆侯賽因(Saddam Hussein)更可靠值得懷疑；當年薩達姆以拖欠蘇聯的債務出名。
All-out struggle between Russia and America on a cold war scale is not on the cards. What we do have, however, is a situation that is bad — and could easily worsen.
俄羅斯和美國之間不太可能重現達到冷戰規模的全面對抗。然而，我們確實面臨糟糕的局面，並且很容易變得更糟糕。
It is optimistic to expect Mr Putin to change course. For now, he gains esteem at home when bullying the neighbours. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have genuine cause for concern. In the longer term, experience suggests Mr Putin will prove a poor geostrategic thinker. He has already damaged Russian economic interests, which surely lie in securing western assistance to build up the country’s ability to cope with competition from China.
指望普京改弦易轍的想法太樂觀了。就眼下而言，欺壓鄰國使他在俄羅斯國內贏得威望。愛沙尼亞、拉托維亞和立陶宛確實有理由感到擔憂。長期來看，經驗似乎表明，普京將被證明是一個拙劣的地緣政治思想家。他已經損害了俄羅斯的經濟利益，俄羅斯的利益肯定在於爭取西方協助其構建實力，以便應對中國的競爭。
Mr Putin’s frequent diplomatic overtures for a Syrian settlement deserve serious examination. But he shows no sign of disengaging from Ukraine; and, having loosed the dogs of nationalism, he would find it hard to put them back in the kennel, even if he wanted to.
普京爲解決敘利亞問題而頻繁提出的外交建議值得認真考慮。但是，他並未表現出撤離烏克蘭的跡象：而且，在鬆綁了民族主義的猛獸後，他會發現很難再把它們關回牢籠，即使他想這麼做。
This makes for a less predictable global situation than the finely tuned balance of power that prevailed during the cold war.
這使當今的全球格局比冷戰時期微妙的實力平衡更難預測。
