匯率戰爭並非中國製造 A currency skirmish that was not made in China
There was a time when young beggars in the countryside outside Jakarta shunned dollars in favour of Japanese yen. Potential customers in Indonesia, meanwhile, shunned Japanese imports because they were so expensive. If your prosperity depends on finding foreign markets for its products, a strong currency is a curse.
曾經有一段時間，雅加達郊外的小乞丐們會不要美元要日元。同一時間，印度尼西亞的潛在消費者會避開日本進口商品，因爲它們實在太貴。如果一國之繁榮依賴於向外國市場出售商品，那麼強勢貨幣就是詛咒。
Last week China became the latest country to counter that curse with the charm of competitive devaluation. Beijing tweaked the formula used each day to fix the value of the renminbi against other currencies, triggering the biggest one-day currency move since the mid-1990s. Some analysts said other countries, particularly in Asia, may be forced to follow suit — perhaps setting up a cascade of tit-for-tat devaluations.
上週中國施展出競爭性貶值的法術，成爲又一個反抗這一詛咒的國家。北京方面調整了人民幣兌美元匯率中間價計算方法，引發自20世紀90年代中期以來人民幣單日匯率最大波動。一些分析師表示，其他國家、特別是亞洲國家可能會被迫跟風，或許會導致一連串針鋒相對的貶值行動。
Yet China is a latecomer to the currency skirmishes. Before 2005, the value of the renminbi was fixed at a constant rate against the dollar. Since that peg was relaxed, the Chinese redback had risen 25 per cent against the greenback. (It has risen still more steeply against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, and by about 50 per cent against the Japanese yen.) Even the International Monetary Fund no longer finds the currency undervalued.
然而在這場小型匯率衝突中，中國其實是後來者。2005年以前，人民幣兌美元匯率是固定的。自從放鬆與美元掛鉤後，人民幣對美元已升值25%。（人民幣對貿易加權一籃子貨幣升幅更大，對日元升值了大約50%。）就連國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)也不再認爲人民幣低估。
Meanwhile, central banks in the big developed economies have held interest rates at close to zero and used freshly minted cash to buy financial assets in huge quantities, a practice known as quantitative easing. Such policies have become the instruments of choice for governments wishing to drive their currencies down and their exports up.
與此同時，較大發達經濟體的央行將利率維持在接近於零的水平，並增印貨幣大量購買金融資產，這一做法即所謂的量化寬鬆。對於那些希望本國貨幣貶值、出口上升的政府來說，該政策已成爲他們的首選工具。
Japan, where exports have yet to return to their pre-crisis peak, is a case in point. The country suffered for three years with a sharply appreciating yen, until the Bank of Japan embarked on its own quantitative easing programme in April 2013, which threw that trend into reverse. The Japanese currency has fallen 33 per cent against the US dollar since then. For all the talk of prime minister Shinzo Abe’s “three arrows”, this is the only element of his economic policy that has convincingly taken flight.
日本就是個很好的例子，其出口尚未恢復到危機前的巔峯期。日本經歷了三年的日元大幅升值，直到日本央行(Bank of Japan)於2013年4月出臺了自己的量化寬鬆計劃，才扭轉這一趨勢。此後日元兌美元匯率已下跌33%。雖然日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的“三支箭”引起廣泛議論，但他的經濟政策中只有這一箭產生了有信服力的效果。
When trade is flourishing and output is growing strongly, there is little harm in such antics. But when the world economy is soft, they are both predatory and dangerous. The gains in exports of one nation come at the expense of others.
當貿易蓬勃發展，經濟產出增長強勁之時，這類非常舉動不會造成多大傷害。但當全球經濟疲軟時，這些行爲則帶有掠奪性和危險性。一國出口之增長，是以犧牲其他國家換來的。
The US Treasury, which has said little about Japan’s extraordinary programme of monetary easing (or, for that matter, the Federal Reserve’s) regularly uses its semi-annual reports to Congress to lambast China for “manipulating” its currency. That is an odd stance.
美國財政部對日本非同尋常的貨幣寬鬆計劃少有微詞（對美聯儲(Fed)的貨幣寬鬆也是），卻常常在提交給國會的半年度報告中，嚴厲譴責中國“操縱”匯率。這是一個奇怪的立場。
For one thing, many Americans have benefited from the Chinese export surge, although it has clearly made life harder for manufacturing workers. Consumers have been able to buy more with their dollars, and borrowers have had access to cheaper financing because China recycles much of its earnings by buying US government debt.
一方面，許多美國人都得益於中國的出口激增，雖然這明顯加大了製造業工人的生存難度。消費者可以用手上的美元購買更多商品，而貸款者可以獲得利息更低的融資，因爲中國將大量貿易順差用來購買美國國債。
But the oddest thing about the Treasury’s complaints is that China has in fact kept its currency strong — displaying restraint that has earnt it little credit.
但美國財政部這一指控最奇怪的地方，是中國實際上一直維持了人民幣的強勁，展現出政府對於貨幣的控制，卻沒有收穫多少信譽度。
To be sure, Beijing’s motives have not been entirely altruistic. The rest of the world might think of China as a maker of cheap toys and low-end electronics, but a rising renminbi forced Chinese manufacturers to move upmarket. The country is increasingly making its own capital goods instead of importing them from Germany or Japan. It is challenging Samsung and other Korean makers on everything from ships to smartphones. A single Chinese company, Shenzhen-based DJI, WHICH ONE?now accounts for 70 per cent of the world market for small drones.
誠然，中國政府的動機並非是完全沒有私心的。全球其他國家可能認爲中國是廉價玩具和低端電子產品製造國，但人民幣升值迫使中國製造商進軍高端市場。中國越來越多地自己製造資本品，而不是從德國或日本進口。它在從船舶到智能手機等所有領域挑戰三星(Samsung)以及其他韓國製造商。單單一家總部位於深圳的中國公司——大疆創新公司(DJI)，現在就佔據70%的全球小型無人機市場份額。
China’s plan for growth once involved investing heavily in fixed assets and marshalling cheap labour to operate them, exporting manufactured goods to the rest of the world. That has changed. Now Beijing wants an economy that relies more on value-added manufacturing and a shift to domestic consumption and spending on services. That depends on workers earning more and having more income to spend. It cannot be achieved by driving down the price of Chinese goods in foreign markets.
中國的增長計劃曾經包括大舉投資於固定資產並投入大量廉價勞動力運營它們，向全球其他國家出口製造業產品。現在這種情況已經改變。如今中國政府希望經濟更加依賴高附加值製造業，並轉向國內消費和服務支出。這有賴於勞動者收入增加且有更多收入可供支出。它不可能靠壓低中國商品在外國市場上的價格來實現。
When Beijing has nudged the renminbi lower, its hand has often been forced. After the G20 meetings in Sydney 18 months ago the Chinese currency fell by about 2 per cent, to the vocal ire of the US. Yet at that time, many hedge funds were minting money by borrowing cheap yen and buying assets such as corporate debtXXX priced in renminbi; the Chinese pointed out that there needed to be a two way trade in renminbi, “in accordance with market principles”.
當中國政府推動人民幣貶值的時候，它往往是被迫的。在18個月前20國集團(G20)悉尼會議之後，人民幣在美國的憤怒聲討之下貶值約2%。然而在當時，許多對衝基金通過借入廉價日元並買入人民幣計價的企業債券等資產來獲利；中國人指出，人民幣有必要“按照市場原則”雙向交易。
Last week’s manoeuvre, which was also couched in the language of the market, is unlikely to be the start of a sharp descent for the Chinese currency. Many companies have borrowed dollars offshore; depreciation only makes their debt burden heavier. And authorities do not wish to see dramatic increases in capital outflows.
中國央行上週的舉動——也是以市場語言表述的——不太可能是人民幣大幅貶值的開始。許多中國公司在海外有美元貸款，人民幣貶值只會加重它們的債務負擔。而且中國有關部門不希望看到資本外流大幅增加。
But if that proves optimistic and a currency war ensues, history should record that Beijing did not fire the first shot.
但如果事實證明這種觀點有些樂觀，隨後發生了匯率戰，歷史應該記錄的是，中國不是第一個開火的。
