希臘債務可持續性堪憂 Greece buoyed as debt relief calls gather momentum

The European institutions overseeing Greece’s bailout have expressed “serious concerns” over the sustainability of the country’s debt, bringing them into line with the more pessimistic assessment of the International Monetary Fund.

監督希臘紓困的歐洲機構對該國債務的可持續性表示“嚴重關切”，這使歐方的口徑與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)比較悲觀的評估基本一致。

The European Commission and the European Central Bank argue in a new analysis that debt relief measures, including extending repayment periods, would allow Athens to achieve debt sustainability, a solution advocated by the IMF. They say such moves would avoid the need for a full-scale haircut.

歐盟委員會(European Commission)和歐洲央行(ECB)在一項新的分析中提出，債務減免措施（包括延長還款期）將使雅典方面能夠實現債務可持續——這正是IMF倡導的解決方案。他們表示，這樣的舉措將意味着不需要全面減記債務。

The conclusion provides a boost to Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras on the day he seeks to push a highly contentious reform and austerity programme through parliament as part of a new 85bn rescue programme agreed in outline on Tuesday. It will heap pressure on Berlin to back substantial debt relief for Athens when Greece’s creditors discuss the issue in the autumn.

這個結論有利於希臘總理齊普拉斯騠虎克西斯(Alexis Tsipras)，他正在推動該國議會通過一項備受爭議的改革和財政緊縮計劃，這是各方在週二達成框架協議的850億歐元新救助計劃的一部分。另一方面，這個結論將使柏林方面受到壓力，要求其在希臘的債權人今秋討論這個問題時，支持向希臘提供大幅債務減免。

But the study could also exacerbate German concerns about ploughing ahead with a new bailout, given the scepticism in chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling conservative CDU/CSU bloc about Greece’s ability to deliver on reform promises and create the conditions for economic recovery.

但這項研究也可能加劇德國對於推進新紓困計劃的擔憂。德國總理安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)領導的保守的基民盟/基社盟(CDU/CSU)執政聯盟，本來就對希臘兌現改革承諾、爲經濟復甦創造條件的能力持懷疑態度。

Germany, together with some other hardline eurozone members, has given Greek calls for debt relief short shrift, saying that any “nominal haircut” would be illegal under the EU treaties.

對於希臘要求債務減免的呼籲，德國和其他一些強硬的歐元區成員國一直不屑一顧。他們稱，根據歐盟條約，任何“名義減記”都是不合法的。

But the analysis by the European institutions suggests that extending maturities coupled with other grace periods would make an outright haircut unnecessary.

但上述歐洲機構的分析表明，延長償債期限，加上其他寬限期安排，將意味着沒有必要進行全面減記。

Without maturity extensions — or similar actions — there would be “serious concerns regarding the sustainability of Greece’s public debt”, it says.

分析報告稱，若不能延長償債期限，也沒有類似行動，就會存在“對於希臘公共債務可持續性的嚴重關切”。

Eurozone finance ministers are due to debate the outline agreement between Athens and its bailout monitors on the new 85bn rescue today. Germany has said the deal is insufficient and wants more time to work out the details.

歐元區財長將於今日辯論雅典方面與紓困監督員就新的850億歐元救助方案達成的框架協議。德國曾表示，這份協議力度不夠，並希望有更多時間來敲定細節。

But Berlin is becoming increasingly isolated in its reluctance to endorse a new rescue as other hardliners gave it their blessing. Alex Stubb, Finland’s finance minister, said he was ready to give the go-ahead to a new bailout. “We are turning the page in this crisis. Hopefully we will see Greece back on the path of recovery. The messages we are getting from Athens are probably a bit more committed than in the past.”

但是，柏林方面不願支持新救助方案的立場，正使其越來越孤立，因爲其他強硬的歐元區夥伴已表示贊同。芬蘭財長亞歷克斯斯圖布(Alex Stubb)表示，他準備同意新的紓困方案。“我們正在翻開這場危機的新的一頁。希望我們會看到希臘回到復甦的道路上。我們從雅典方面獲得的承諾很可能比過去誠懇了一些。”

Although debt relief will not be formally discussed until after the summer, it could still become an issue in today’s talks. Berlin is insisting on the IMF’s full participation in a new bailout of Greece before deciding whether to back the deal. But the IMF — whose involvement is also critical for other hardline countries — warned last month that it may not be able to take part in a third Greek bailout if the country’s debts were unsustainable.

雖然正式討論債務減免將是夏季以後的事情，但此事仍可能成爲今日磋商中的一個議題。柏林方面堅持要求IMF首先承諾全面參與新的希臘紓困，然後纔會決定是否支持協議。其他立場強硬的成員國也希望IMF參與。但IMF上月警告，如果希臘的債務是不可持續的，它可能無法參與對該國的第三輪紓困。