牽一髮動全身 各方應力避伊拉克分裂

After weeks of alarm over the lightning advance of a brutal, transnational jihadi group in Iraq, a nation fearing for its very existence has been granted some short-term relief.

在連續幾周被一個野蠻的跨國聖戰組織的閃電般軍事推進所震驚之後，擔心國家無法存續下去的伊拉克得到了一點喘息空間。

Stepping back into Iraq, the US has ramped up air strikes against the jihadis of the self-styled Islamic State. For now at least, the oil-rich northern Kurdish region’s capital of Erbil appears secure and the group known as Isis has been driven out of the strategic Mosul dam.

美國重返伊拉克，加大了對自稱“伊斯蘭國”（Islamic State，簡稱IS）的聖戰組織的空中打擊。至少就眼下而言，伊拉克北部石油儲量豐富的庫爾德地區的首府埃爾比勒(Erbil)似乎是安全的，這個又被稱爲“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的極端武裝已被逐出具有戰略重要性的摩蘇爾水壩。

Equally important has been the political change in Baghdad, where Nouri al-Maliki, the autocratic Shia prime minister, has agreed to withdraw his candidacy for a third term in office. He has been replaced by Haidar al-Abadi, a pragmatic, though untested Shia politician who is considered more acceptable to the country’s Kurdish and Sunni minorities.

同樣重要的是巴格達的政治變革。威權的什葉派總理努裏•馬利基(Nouri al-Maliki)已同意放棄競逐第三個任期。接替他的海德爾•阿巴迪(Haidar al-Abadi)是一個務實（儘管從未經受過考驗）的什葉派政治人物，被視爲更能讓伊拉克的庫爾德和遜尼派少數族羣接受。

Significant though these gains might be, however, they provide no guarantee that Iraq will stop tearing itself apart. The break-up of one of the Middle East’s most important nations seems less inevitable than a few weeks ago, but Iraq’s territorial integrity is by no means assured. To defeat Isis and set Iraq on the path to reconciliation requires difficult choices from all religious and ethnic groups. It also demands concerted engagement by the US, which is in a position to trade security assistance for political concessions.

不過，儘管這些進展可能是重大的，但它們並不能保證伊拉克將就此停止解體。中東最重要國家之一的解體，現在看起來不像幾周前那麼不可避免，但伊拉克的領土完整絕非板上釘釘。要擊敗ISIS、使伊拉克走上民族和解的道路，需要各個宗教和族裔羣體作出艱難的選擇，需要美國協調一致的參與。美國所處的位置使其能夠以安全援助爲條件，換取政治讓步。

In pushing aside Mr Maliki, the US benefited from support from Iran as well as Iraq’s top Shia clerics. Tehran will continue to have the most influence with Shia parties but the US is the only country with sufficient leverage over Iraq’s three main communities. It will have to supplement its critical military role with a bolstered diplomatic intervention.

在排擠掉馬利基的過程中，美國得到伊拉克什葉派高層宗教人士以及伊朗的支持。德黑蘭將繼續對什葉派政黨擁有最大影響力，但美國是唯一對伊拉克三大羣體都有足夠影響力的國家。它必須以更大力度的外交干預來補充其至關重要的軍事作用。

Mr Maliki’s sectarian agenda and his concentration of authority in the prime minister’s office was a big contributor to the alienation of the Sunni and the decision by tribal leaders to allow, if not assist, Isis’s military campaign. The Shia leader’s monopolisation of power also drove the Kurds increasingly to question whether their northern semi-autonomous enclave should remain part of Iraq. Seizing on the Isis advances, Kurdish leaders have captured the disputed oil-rich city of Kirkuk and called for a referendum on independence.

馬利基的教派主義議程，以及他將權力集中於總理辦公室的做法，在很大程度上疏遠了遜尼派，並導致部族首領放任（即便沒有協助）ISIS的軍事行動。什葉派領導人的權力壟斷，還導致庫爾德人越來越懷疑他們在北部的半自治地盤應不應該留在伊拉克的版圖內。借ISIS推進之機，庫爾德武裝攻佔了有爭議的石油重鎮基爾庫克(Kirkuk)，庫爾德領導人還呼籲舉行獨立公投。

But while the exit of Mr Maliki was a necessary step to reverse Iraq’s disintegration, his successor faces a monumental task. He needs sufficient consensus to form a government in the short term, and a more fundamental contract among the main communities to secure the country’s longer-term survival.

不過，儘管馬利基的下臺是扭轉伊拉克解體趨勢的一個必要步驟，但他的繼任者面臨艱鉅的任務。這位繼任者需要凝聚足夠共識，在短期內組成一個政府，然後在主要羣體之間達成一項更爲根本的契約，以確保國家的長期存續。

Iraq will have to move towards a federal system but the quest for an agreement on expanded powers for the regions cannot hold up the formation of a new government. Reforming a corrupt and sectarian security apparatus that has become an instrument of Sunni repression will not be achieved overnight. Nor will a resolution of the Kurds’ oil disputes with Baghdad.

伊拉克將不得不走向聯邦制，但尋求就擴大地方權力達成協議的努力，不能妨礙新政府的組成。伊拉克安全系統近年來已變成一件壓迫遜尼派的工具；改革這樣一個腐敗、教派主義的安全系統，不可能在一夜間完成。解決庫爾德人與巴格達之間的石油糾紛也不會一蹴而就。

The most immediate challenge for Mr Abadi is to turn Sunni tribes against Isis and stall the Kurds’ drive towards independence. This might be achieved by agreeing to security reforms under American guidance and committing to a more genuine dialogue with the Kurds. Both Sunni and Kurds should give the new prime minister time and not hold up the formation of a government until their demands are met.

阿巴迪面對的最緊迫挑戰是，爭取讓遜尼派部族反對ISIS，同時阻止庫爾德人的獨立努力。這或許可以通過同意在美國指導下改革安全系統和承諾與庫爾德人展開更真誠的對話來實現。無論是遜尼派還是庫爾德人，都應給予新總理時間，而不是以自己的訴求爲要挾，阻止新政府的組成。

To raise the pressure for compromise, the US should enlist the support of regional allies such as Saudi Arabia, which has influence with the Sunni tribes, and Turkey which has developed close economic ties with the Kurds. These Sunni states should realise that they too are threatened by Isis’s savagery. And they must recognise that US military support can only be effective if Iraqi politics becomes more inclusive.

爲了加大要求各方達成妥協的壓力，美國應該爭取地區盟友如沙特阿拉伯（對遜尼派部族具有影響力）和土耳其（與庫爾德人發展了密切的經濟聯繫）的支持。這些遜尼派國家應該認識到，它們也受到ISIS野蠻行徑的威脅。它們還必須認識到，只有在伊拉克的政治變得更加包容的情況下，美國的軍事支持纔能有效。