中俄博弈 天然氣交易大單凸顯主動權向中國轉移
To the casual observer, it’s easy to doubt that China and Russia would have ever struck a natural gas supply and purchase deal during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Shanghai last month. After all, countless summits between Chinese and Russian leaders have come and gone with no final agreement signed for the long-discussed plans to ship more Russian gas to China. However, Putin and Xi finally ended an energy courtship, agreeing to a $400 billion deal for the delivery of 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China starting in 2018.
中俄天然氣交易已經醞釀數年之久，如今終於達成協議。包括這筆交易在內，中俄近十幾年年來在能源領域的一系列合作表明，雙方博弈的主動權已經逐漸從俄羅斯轉移到了中國手中。Long before the Chinese and Russian leaders on May 21 toasted their supply contract, the two countries had viewed each other as attractive natural gas partners. Russia regarded tapping into the Chinese market as essential to its plans to diversify its exports away from Europe, where natural gas demand is projected to grow at a substantially slower pace than in China. Meanwhile, the surge in China’s natural gas demand in recent years made the Chinese eye their northern neighbor, the world’s largest natural gas exporter, as an important source of supply to fill the gap between China’s domestic natural gas production and consumption.
上個月，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾o普京與中國國家主席習近平在上海會面時，外行的觀察者們可能不會相信中俄兩國會達成天然氣供應協議。畢竟，針對俄羅斯向中國增加天然氣出口的問題，兩國經歷了漫長的談判，雙方領導人也進行了無數次會談，卻始終沒有結果。最終，普京與習近平終於敲定了4,000億美元的能源合作協議。雙方商定，俄羅斯從2018年開始，每年向中國輸送380億立方米天然氣。Developments in the months leading up to the Shanghai summit may have provided Russia and China with added incentives to get serious about a natural gas marriage. For Russia, the new imperative is the country’s increased isolation from the United States and Europe in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the resulting Western sanctions.
5月21日，中俄兩國領導人爲達成天然氣供應協議舉杯慶賀。事實上，兩國很早便將彼此視爲極具吸引力的天然氣合作伙伴。俄羅斯希望擺脫天然氣出口業務對歐洲的依賴，而中國市場對實現這個計劃至關重要。根據預測，歐洲市場的天然氣需求增長速度將遠遠低於中國。而另一面，近幾年，中國天然氣需求激增，而中國的北方近鄰作爲全球最大的天然氣出口國，自然被中國視爲填補國內天然氣產量與消費量差距的重要供應來源。
Europe’s renewed interest in finding alternatives to natural gas supplies from Russia, and the calls by U.S. policymakers and pundits for Washington to expedite the process for granting LNG export licenses and lift the virtual ban on crude oil exports to help wean Europe off Russian energy, undoubtedly made signing a gas pact with China even more appealing to Moscow.
而近幾個月，促使兩國舉行上海峯會的局勢變化，也爲中俄認真考慮天然氣合作提供了更多誘因。在俄羅斯方面，吞併克里米亞地區和由此導致的西方國家制裁使俄羅斯遭到美國和歐洲的進一步孤立，因此，與中國的合作勢在必行。For China, the country’s poor air quality and it’s “war on pollution” declared by Premier Li Keqiang in March likely increased the desirability of Russian natural gas. Indeed, the Chinese government’s announcement in April that the country aims to more than double the country’s natural gas consumption from 170 bcm in 2013 to 400-420 bcm in 2020 means China now needs Russian gas more than ever.
歐洲重新開始尋找新的天然氣供應以取代俄羅斯，而美國決策者和華盛頓權威人士呼籲加快授予液化天然氣出口許可的進程以及取消原油出口禁令，以幫助歐洲擺脫對俄羅斯能源的依賴，這無疑使得莫斯科方面更加迫切與中國簽署一份天然氣協定。The major obstacle that Russia and China encountered on past attempts to make it to the altar was price. Russia did not want to sell gas to China at a price lower than it commanded in Europe, its largest customer. Meanwhile, China did not want to buy gas at a higher price than it paid Turkmenistan, its largest supplier of natural gas.
在中國方面，糟糕的空氣質量以及今年三月份李克強總理“向污染宣戰”的決心使得俄羅斯的天然氣更具吸引力。實際上，中國政府今年四月份宣佈，到2020年，全國天然氣消費量將增長兩倍以上，從2013年的1,700億立方米增加到4,000 – 4,200億立方米。這就意味着，中國現在更需要俄羅斯的天然氣。Although the Russians and the Chinese have come to a meeting of the minds on price, they are treating it as a commercial secret. Consequently, there has been much speculation by outside analysts about the price implied by the $400 billion contract and what it says about which country got the better deal. A back-of-the-envelope calculation yields an implied price of $350 per thousand cubic meters, which is close to what the Chinese are understood to have paid for gas from Turkmenistan last year. This estimate fits with the consensus among many outside observers in the lead up to the summit that Chinese had the upper hand due to Russia’s strained relations with the U.S. and Europe and the number of natural gas producers eager to supply the Chinese market.
過去，中俄無法達成天然氣協議的主要障礙在於價格。俄羅斯不希望價格低於自己向最大的客戶歐洲出口天然氣的價格。而中國卻不希望價格高於自己從最大天然氣供應國土庫曼斯坦進口天然氣的價格。That said, we do not know the pricing formula, the base number to be plugged into that formula or how a variety of other issues on the negotiating table – such as the apparent lack of upstream access in Russia for the Chinese, a rumored prepayment from the Chinese to the Russians, a Russian proposal to exempt gas sent to China from a mineral extraction tax, a Chinese proposal to exempt Russian supplies from an LNG import tax, and expectations about the pace of natural gas price reform in China – influenced both countries decisions about price.
中俄兩國最終就價格問題達成了共識，但雙方都把這個價格看成商業機密。因此，對於4,000億美元合同中隱含的價格以及合同的受益方，外界分析師有大量的猜測。通過大致計算得出的隱含價格是每千立方米350美元，基本接近去年中國從土庫曼斯坦進口天然氣的價格。這個估算結果也符合許多外部觀察家在兩國領導人峯會之前的一致意見，即由於俄羅斯與美國和歐洲的緊張關係，而且希望向中國市場供應天然氣的國家大有人在，因此，中國在談判中掌握了主動權。It is also important to note that this is not a marriage among equals. The natural gas supply agreement is the third time in the past decade that the Russians have brokered a multi-billion dollar energy deal with the Chinese in a time of need. In 2005, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China were lenders of last resort to Rosneft, providing the Russian national oil company with a $6 billion oil-backed loan to help fund the purchase of the main production asset of a private Russian oil company, Yukos.
另外需要注意的一點是，中俄兩國在這筆交易中並不是處在平等的地位上。過去十年間，包括此次天然氣供應協議在內，俄羅斯曾經三次在有需要的時候與中國達成數十億美元的能源交易。2005年，中國國家開發銀行（China Development Bank）與中國進出口銀行（Export-Import Bank of China）成爲俄羅斯石油公司（Rosneft）的最後貸款人，爲這家俄羅斯國有石油公司提供60億美元以石油爲抵押的貸款，幫助它收購俄羅斯私有石油公司尤科斯（Yukos）的主要生產資產。Four years later, the China Development Bank extended oil-backed loans worth $25 billion to Rosneft and Transneft, the state-owned pipeline operator, when oil prices collapsed and credit crunch during the global financial crisis left both Russian companies in a world of hurt. These deals have not only deepened bilateral energy relations, but also underscored a shift in power in the relationship away from Russia and toward China.
四年後，中國國家開發銀行向俄羅斯石油公司和俄羅斯國有管道運營商俄羅斯石油運輸公司（Transneft）提供了250億美元以石油爲抵押的貸款。當時正值全球金融危機，石油價格暴跌，信貸緊縮，這兩家俄羅斯公司都陷入困境。這幾筆交易不僅加深了兩國的能源關係，同時也意味着在這種關係中，主動權正在從俄羅斯向中國轉移。Regardless of which country may have conceded more, both countries can present themselves as winners to domestic and international audiences. The gas deal signifies that the China-Russia energy relationship is starting to live up to its full potential. Russia, which was China’s fourth largest crude oil supplier in 2013, is poised to become a major source of natural gas imports for its southern neighbor. This arrangement should provide Russia with greater security of demand and China with greater security of supply in the long-term. In the short-term, the main benefits of the gas agreement are political. Russia can claim a powerful friend in China, and China can point to another indicator of its growing economic and political clout on the world stage.
不論到底哪一方做出了更多讓步，在國內和國際舞臺上，中國兩國都把自己描繪成獲勝者。這次的天然氣交易預示着中俄兩國的能源關係開始充分發揮潛力。2013年，俄羅斯是中國第四大原油供應國，未來將成爲它南方鄰邦重要的天然氣進口來源。從長期來看，這份協議將分別給俄羅斯和中國帶來更可靠的供應與需求保障。而從短期而言，天然氣協議的主要好處表現在政治方面。俄羅斯可以獲得中國這個強有力的盟友，而中國也獲得了又一次機會，彰顯出它在世界舞臺日益擴大的經濟與政治影響力。Erica Downs is a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings Institution. She focuses on the international expansion of Chinese companies and China’s energy and foreign policies as well as government-business relations in China, and was previously was an energy analyst at the CIA.
本文作者鄧麗嘉是布魯金斯學會約翰oLo桑頓中國研究中心研究員。她一直致力於研究中國公司的海外擴張、中國的能源和外交政策以及中國政府與企業的關係，之前曾在美國中央情報局擔任能源分析師。
