西方應重審與俄羅斯的關係
Europe’s corridors of power are echoing to the cries of agitated equivocation. Yes, Vladimir Putin has violated sacred international norms and put at risk the security of the European continent. Yes, European leaders must roundly condemn the Russian president for his seizure of Ukrainian territory. And yes, those who believe in international law should do something more than wag a finger. All this is well understood. We must not, however, get carried away.
歐洲的權力走廊迴盪着緊張激動而又模棱兩可的呼喊聲。沒錯，弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)違反了神聖的國際規範，可能危及歐洲大陸的安全。沒錯，歐洲各國領導人必須嚴厲譴責普京侵佔烏克蘭領土。沒錯，那些相信國際法的人們除了表示反對之外，還應該採取一些實際的行動。所有這些都完全可以理解。但是我們不能想當然。In Britain, ministers fret that economic retaliation would jeopardise the City of London’s money laundering operations. Russia, with its reliable multi-billion-dollar supply of dirty money, is a much cherished customer in the capital’s booming property market. In Germany, business leaders implore Angela Merkel, the chancellor, not to threaten lucrative exports or invite interruption of Russian gas supplies. In Rome Matteo Renzi, the new prime minister, is told he must not upset Italy’s powerful energy bosses.
在英國，部長們擔心經濟報復將會影響倫敦金融城(City of London)的洗錢活動。源源不斷供應鉅額髒錢的俄羅斯，是倫敦繁榮的房地產市場的“貴賓”客戶。在德國，商界領導人懇請總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)不要影響他們有利可圖的出口，或者促使俄羅斯切斷天然氣供應。在羅馬，剛剛上臺的總理馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)被告知，他不能讓意大利有權有勢的能源行業領袖的日子難過。It would be nice to imagine that EU leaders had framed a carefully calibrated response to Mr Putin’s aggression. Blending prudence with toughness, Europe is eschewing draconian sanctions now in order to de-escalate the conflict, but will step up the pressure decisively if Mr Putin refuses to admit Ukrainian sovereignty in Crimea. This indeed was the EU summit’s official message. Sad to say, Europe’s caution has been the handmaiden of pusillanimity rather than of diplomatic calculation; and without evidence of serious resolve Mr Putin has no reason to step back.
人們期盼歐盟(EU)領導人針對普京的挑釁框定了一套精心校準的應對措施——結合審慎與強硬，歐洲迴避實施嚴厲制裁，爲衝突降溫創造條件，但如果普京拒絕承認烏克蘭在克里米亞的主權，歐洲就會果斷加大壓力。這的確是歐盟峯會傳遞的官方信息。遺憾的是，歐洲的謹慎是出於膽怯，而非外交盤算的結果；而如果看不到堅定決心的證據，普京沒有理由退縮。
The EU would have gained a shred of credibility had it followed President Barack Obama’s lead. Visa restrictions and the like have some force when, as is the case with Russia, members of the elite like to travel widely in the course of stashing and spending their billions. At the other end of the spectrum should lie a threat of broad financial sanctions against Russia akin to those applied to Iran.
如果歐盟效仿美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的做法，尚可獲得少許可信度。禁發籤證之類的措施會產生一些效果，因爲俄羅斯的精英人士爲了藏匿並消費他們的鉅額資金需要大量旅行。迴應措施的另一頭應該是威脅對俄羅斯採取廣泛的金融制裁，類似於對伊朗實施的制裁。Yet, even if Europeans were to agree eventually to travel some distance along the sanctions road, piecemeal retaliation is only part of the necessary response to Russia’s territorial grab. The seizure of Crimea – and Mr Putin’s threat of a march into eastern Ukraine – requires a fundamental change in mindset. The so-called reset in western ties with Russia needs to be reset, and the boundaries of engagement redrawn.
然而，即便歐洲最終同意實施一些制裁，零敲碎打的報復也只是對俄羅斯侵佔領土行爲必要回應的一部分。克里米亞被侵佔以及普京威脅出兵烏克蘭東部，要求我們從根本上轉變心態。有必要重新考慮西方與俄羅斯關係的所謂“重啓”，重新劃定雙方接觸的界限。The albeit rather threadbare premise behind the west’s approach has hitherto been that Moscow wants to be included, if with some exceptions, in a rules-based order. That, however much he rails against cruel history, Mr Putin wants to remain a member of the club. Hence Russia’s participation in the G8, its “strategic partnership” with the EU, the Nato-Russia Council in Brussels, membership of the World Trade Organisation and so on.
此前西方的做法有一個頗爲陳腐的前提：即便有一些例外情況，但莫斯科總體上希望參與一種基於規則的秩序；無論怎麼抱怨無情的歷史，普京仍希望留在俱樂部內。因此俄羅斯是8國集團(G8)成員，與歐盟建立“戰略合作關係”，參加布魯塞爾的北約-俄羅斯理事會(Nato-Russia Council)，並加入了世界貿易組織(WTO)等等。We know now that this is a charade. The march into Ukraine confirmed what should have been recognised some time ago: that Mr Putin’s regime has no respect for international rules and norms. When the game is going against it, its answer is to put tanks on to the chessboard. Rules are for weak westerners, not for resurgent Russia.
我們現在知道，這一切只是假象。出兵烏克蘭證實了世人早就應該意識到的一個事實：普京政權根本不尊重國際規則和規範。當棋局對己不利的時候，俄羅斯就會把坦克開上棋盤。規則是針對軟弱的西方人、而不是針對重新崛起的俄羅斯的。Mr Putin’s performance since the weekend – one perfectly mimed by Sergei Lavrov, the weather-beaten cold warrior in charge of the foreign ministry – has been almost as illuminating as the invasion itself. There are no Russian troops in Crimea, Moscow insists, even as its forces (albeit without insignia) appear on our television screens seizing Ukrainian military bases. “We have no control over them”, Mr Lavrov declares, without so much as a blink of the columns of heavily armed soldiers. The idea is cynically simple: night can become day and white become black if only you say so often enough.
普京近日的表現幾乎和入侵本身一樣說明問題。飽經風霜的冷戰專家、俄羅斯外長謝爾蓋•拉夫羅夫(Sergei Lavrov)完美地亦步亦趨。莫斯科方面堅稱，克里米亞沒有俄羅斯軍隊，即便俄羅斯士兵（雖然沒有佩戴徽章）奪取烏克蘭軍事基地的畫面傳遍世界各地的電視屏幕。拉夫羅夫對那些全副武裝、列隊行進的軍人視若不見，瞪着眼睛宣稱：“我們對這些人沒有控制。”這其中的理念既簡單又諷刺：只要你不斷重複，就能把黑的說成白的，白的說成黑的。This is the strategy of a regime that has taken itself out of the international system. In its own mind Moscow can break any rule it likes and then deny the fact of the transgression. If Mr Putin can be so dismissive of law and treaties in matters of war and peace, why should he respect any of the other rules of the game?
這是一個自絕於國際體系的政權的典型戰略。在莫斯科一廂情願的世界裏，它可以隨心所欲地踢開任何規則，然後否認違規的事實。如果普京在事關戰爭與和平的問題上都可以對法律和條約如此不屑一顧，他爲何要尊重其他遊戲規則呢？Some wonder whether western governments should boycott the next meeting of the G8 in Sochi. The more apposite question is why on earth they should continue with the pretext that Russia is part of the club. The same can be said of other agreements – on trade, investment and energy – under discussion with Moscow. Why sign accords that one side feels no obligation to respect?
一些人提出，西方各國政府是不是應該抵制原定在索契舉行的G8下一次會議？其實更貼切的問題是，他們爲什麼要繼續硬撐俄羅斯仍是西方俱樂部一員這個門面？西方與莫斯科正在談判的其他協定（涉及貿易、投資和能源）也是如此。爲何要簽署某一方覺得自己沒有義務遵守的協定？Of course, there will always be business to be done with Mr Putin. Russia is an important power. But the west should shed its illusions in favour of a transactional approach. Interests will sometimes coincide and sometimes collide. There may be bargains to be struck and trade-offs to be made when it suits both sides. But Europe should not imagine the Kremlin leadership is playing on the same board. Oddly enough, hard-nosed realpolitik could over time promote a better relationship.
當然，西方總是會與普京打交道。俄羅斯是一個重要的大國。但西方應該放棄幻想，轉而採取一種交易型的方式。西方與俄羅斯的利益有時會重合，有時會發生衝突。當利益一致時，雙方可以達成交易，進行禮尚往來。但歐洲不應指望克里姆林宮領導人遵守規則。奇怪的是，長遠而言，務實的現實主義政治可能帶來更好的關係。As for Ukraine, the west’s goal should never be to wrench it out of the arms of Moscow. Russia has deep interests, rooted in history, culture and security, in the future of its neighbour. Europe’s objective should be the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and a constitution and a government that properly represents all sections of the population. Economic ties with the west should not exclude a strong partnership with Russia.
就烏克蘭來說，西方的目標永遠也不應該是幫助其擺脫莫斯科的影響。出於歷史、文化和安全方面的原因，烏克蘭的未來對俄羅斯有着深層次的利害關係。歐洲的目標應當是恢復烏克蘭的領土完整，並建立一個恰當代表烏克蘭社會各界的憲法和政府。烏克蘭與西方建立經濟聯繫，不應意味着排除與俄羅斯緊密合作。Mr Putin says he shares this ambition. The problem is that the Russian president also insists that none of his troops is in Crimea.
普京表示他認可這種抱負。問題在於，這位俄羅斯總統還堅稱他的軍隊不在克里米亞。
