全球石油市場失控 Oil market slides out of control
For most of the Age of Oil, groups of producers have tried to control its price. From the 1920s, that strategy was co-ordinated by the Railroad Commission of Texas, supported by other US states and federal authorities. Then from the 1970s it was Opec, the producing countries’ cartel.
石油時代的大部分時期，石油生產國組織都在試圖控制油價。上世紀20年代，德克薩斯州鐵路委員會(Texas Railroad Commission)開始這樣做，並獲得美國其他州和聯邦當局的支持。到上世紀70年代，石油生產國成立了石油輸出國組織（Opec，簡稱歐佩克）來控制油價。
The plunge in the price of crude since the summer of 2014 has made it clear that the market has escaped anyone’s ability to control it.
自2014年夏季以來，原油價格暴跌，表明原油市場已沒有人能控制得住了。
A combination of technological progress, in the shape of the spectacular success of US shale oil production over the past five years, worries about the slowdown in China and other emerging economies, and a shift in strategy by Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has caused a global glut of oil that sent prices tumbling by more than 50 per cent.
以過去5年美國頁岩油生產的巨大成功爲代表的技術進步、對中國和其他新興經濟體經濟放緩的擔憂，以及全球最大石油生產國沙特改變策略，這些因素共同導致全球石油供應過剩，從而使得油價暴跌逾50%。
For now, at least, prices are being driven more by market forces than by political decisions and it is an unnerving experience for everyone concerned, from the boardrooms of Houston to the palaces of Riyadh. It is not, however, wholly unprecedented.
至少就目前而言，影響油價的是市場力量、而非政治決定。從休斯頓那些大型油企的董事會、到利雅得的宮殿裏，油價暴跌讓所有相關方焦躁不安。然而，這並非完全沒有先例。
In the words that are apocryphally attributed to Mark Twain, “history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme”. So, while there are no exact precedents for today’s markets, the past can provide some clues to the future.
據說馬克吐溫(Mark Twain)曾說過：“歷史不會重演,但總會驚人地相似。”因此，儘管當今市場狀況沒有一模一樣的先例，但過去也能給未來提供一些線索。
The most recent oil price collapse came just seven years ago. The downfall of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the subsequent financial crisis toppled crude prices from a higher peak than in 2014 to its lowest trough. That episode turned out to be shortlived. Having dropped below $37 per barrel in December 2008, internationally traded benchmark Brent crude was back above $70 by June 2009.
最近一次油價暴跌就發生在7年前。2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒閉以及隨後的金融危機，使得油價從比2014年價格還要高的峯值跌至最低點。事實證明這種下跌是短暫的。在2008年12月跌至每桶37美元下方之後，國際基準油價布倫特(Brent)原油價格到2009年6月重返70美元上方。
On the demand side, 2015 looks quite like 2009. Six years ago, the swift resumption of strong growth in China, after a brief wobble in late 2008 and early 2009, provided important support to prices. This year, similarly, growth in China’s oil demand has been strong, though forecasters expect it to slow. It is the supply side that is different.
從需求方面來說，2015年看起來和2009年非常相像。6年前，在2008年末和2009年初短暫下跌之後，中國很快恢復強勁增長，這爲油價提供了重要支撐。今年同樣如此，中國對石油的需求一直強勁，儘管預測機構預計其需求將會放緩。供應方面則有所不同。
In 2008, there was decisive action by Opec, which cut its agreed output by 4.2m barrels per day in three steps from September to December, culminating in the largest single reduction in its history that helped stabilise prices.
2008年，歐佩克採取果斷舉措，從9月到12月分三步實現日減產420萬桶，直至創出歷史上最大幅度的單日減產，這幫助穩定了油價。
The cartel’s ability to control oil markets is often exaggerated, but it is clear that its intervention in 2008 had a very significant impact. When its ministers met in Vienna on November 27 last year, as the latest price slide was in full swing, they suggested their influence had reached its limits.
歐佩克控制石油市場的能力往往被誇大，但它在2008年的干預顯然作用顯著。在去年11月27日於維也納舉行的歐佩克部長級會議上——當時正是本輪油價下跌最厲害之時——部長們表示歐佩克的影響力已經達到極限。
Their decision to leave their official production level unchanged set the seal on a policy that had already been signalled for months by Saudi Arabia, the group’s most influential member. As Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, explained later in an interview with the Middle East Economic Survey, a cut in Opec production, meaning principally Saudi production, would have merely allowed more “marginal barrels” from US shale and other higher-cost sources to fill the gap.
會議讓官方產量水平保持不變的決定，確認了該集團最具影響力的成員國沙特數月以來一直在暗示的政策。正如沙特石油部長阿里納伊米(Ali Al-Naimi)後來在接受《中東經濟調察》(Middle East Economic Survey)採訪時解釋的那樣，歐佩克減產（主要是沙特減產）只會讓來自美國頁岩和其他高成本資源的更多“邊際供應”來填補缺口。
The clearest precedent for Mr Naimi’s strategy of turning on the taps is the policy adopted by Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, his famous predecessor, who boosted production in 1985-86 after cutting back over the previous half-decade to support prices. Crude plunged in 1986 and the world entered a period of low prices that stretched into the 2000s.
納伊米“打開輸油龍頭”策略的最明顯先例，是著名的沙特前石油部長謝赫縠哈邁德丠基騠汎尼(Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani)曾經推行的政策，後者在爲支撐價格減產5年之後，於1985年至1986年間下令提高石油產量。1986年原油價格暴跌，全球進入了一直持續到2000年代的低油價時代。
Another parallel with today was the preceding surge in non-Opec production. The equivalent of this decade’s shale boom was the opening of two important new oil provinces: the North Sea and Alaska.
另一個與當前有些相像的例子是當年非歐佩克石油生產國產量的飆升。當時，北海和阿拉斯加這兩個新的重要石油產地開始產油，其效果無異於本十年這場頁岩繁榮。
The development of those areas, which were relatively high-cost compared to oilfields in the Middle East, was made possible by Opec moves that forced up the price of oil in the 1970s, just as shale was made viable by the high prices of the first half of the 2010s.
與中東油田相比，那兩個地區的油田開採成本相對較高。歐佩克上世紀70年代推升油價的舉措，使得開發那裏的石油成爲可能，這和2010年代頭5年的高油價讓頁岩油開發成爲可能一樣。
Although low prices hit investment, prompting cost-cutting from western oil companies including the mega-merger wave at the end of the 1990s, production took a long time to respond. The UK, Norway and Alaska continued to produce in large volumes through the turn of the century.
儘管低油價打擊投資，促使西方石油公司削減成本，包括出現上世紀90年代末的併購潮，但生產花了很長時間才做出迴應。英國、挪威和阿拉斯加在本世紀之交繼續大規模開採石油。
Eventually, though, as those regions went into decline, and demand from China and other emerging economies began to grow strongly, the stage was set for the steep rise in prices of the 2000s. The question today is how quickly a similar adjustment of supply will materialise. At the beginning of this year, many expected that the US shale industry would head quickly into a downturn.
然而，隨着那些地區產量步入下降通道，中國和其他新興經濟體的需求也開始強勁增長，最終爲2000年代油價大幅上漲創造了條件。今天的問題是，供應方面會多快實現類似調整。在今年年初，許多人預計，美國頁岩行業將會很快陷入低迷。
So far, it has not turned out like that. Production companies have been able to squeeze out further efficiency gains and cut the prices they pay suppliers. They have also been “high-grading” their operations: focusing on the most productive areas. US production has proved more resilient than some had expected.
該行業迄今並未陷入低迷。生產公司能夠通過提高效率進一步擠出一些收益並壓低付給供應商的價格。他們也一直在“掐尖兒”生產：主要開發產油量最高的地區。事實證明，美國生產的彈性超過一些人的預期。
However Trisha Curtis, of the Washington-based Energy Policy Research Foundation, says oil at under $50 is causing “quite serious” problems for the industry. Blithe assertions that everything seems fine ignore the fact that there is always a lag before production reflects the number of rigs drilling for oil, which has dropped 63 per cent in the past year. “It’s going to take a while,” says Ms Curtis. The shale industry is not dying, she adds, but it may be going “into hibernation”.
然而，華盛頓能源政策研究基金會(Energy Policy Research Foundation)的特麗莎柯蒂斯(Trisha Curtis)表示，油價跌至50美元下方正對頁岩行業造成“非常嚴重的”問題。樂觀地斷言“似乎一切都好”忽視瞭如下事實，即石油鑽井平臺的數量總是要過一段時間纔會反映到產量上——石油鑽井平臺在過去一年裏減少了63%。柯蒂斯表示：“會滯後一段時間。”她補充稱，頁岩行業沒有在走向死亡，但可能會進入“冬眠”。
In other oil-producing regions, where project developments are typically multiyear and multibillion-dollar commitments, production will be slower to react to the fall in price of crude.
在項目開發通常需要數年時間和數十億美元投資承諾的其他石油生產地區，生產對油價下跌的反應將會更慢。
Philip Verleger, an energy economist, suggests Venezuela, a leading oil producer now in the grip of a severe financial crisis, could crack first, with mounting chaos in the country putting its entire 2.4m b/d of production at risk.
能源經濟學家菲利普弗萊傑(Philip Verleger)表示，處於嚴重金融危機中的主要石油生產國委內瑞拉可能首先崩潰，該國日益升級的騷亂讓其240萬桶的日產量可能整個不保。
For those reasons, while the oil market will for a while be weighed down by near-term pressures, including the prospect of additional Iranian supply, the longer-term price trend still seems likely to be upwards, with the potential for spikes if crises erupt in Venezuela or elsewhere. Edward Morse, analyst at Citigroup, suggests a range of $60-$80 per barrel would bring supply and demand back into balance.
出於上述原因，儘管石油市場暫時將會因短期壓力（包括伊朗可能額外供應一些石油）而承壓，但更長期的價格趨勢似乎仍可能是上行的，如果委內瑞拉或其他地方爆發危機，油價還有可能大幅飆升。花旗集團(Citigroup)分析師愛德華莫爾斯(Edward Morse)表示， 60美元/桶至80美元/桶之間的油價將會讓供需重新實現平衡。
The idea that supplies of fossil fuels will grow ever tighter as demand increases, pushing prices inexorably higher, has been put on ice, perhaps forever. The lesson of the past decade is that so long as the right technology, capital and legal frameworks are in place, oil and gas will flow. If the world is to shift away from fossil fuels, therefore, governments will need to take deliberate policy actions to make that happen.
化石燃料供應將會隨着需求增長而日益緊張、從而推動價格大大提高的觀點已經降溫，或許是永遠降溫了。過去十年的教訓在於，只要合適的技術、資本和法律框架到位，石油和天然氣將會源源不斷地被生產出來。因此，如果世界想要不再使用化石燃料，各國政府將需要採取刻意朝這個方向引導的政策措施。
