誰在推動中國對外直接投資

Chinese companies have been stepping up their global investment spree in the past 12 months. Mergers and acquisitions by private Chinese investors are becoming the key drivers of the country’s outbound direct investment.

過去12個月裏，中國企業的全球大舉投資行動一直在加碼。中國私營領域的投資者發起的併購開始成爲中國對外直接投資(ODI)的主要推動力。

In what has been called the ‘Third Wave’ of China outbound direct investment (ODI), the focus of investment has been on companies in the developed economies in high-tech and services. Previous ‘waves’ have focused on supporting developing economies and investing in commodities and extraction industries.

在所謂“第三波”中國對外直接投資中，重點併購對象是發達經濟體中的高科技與服務行業企業。在前幾波中國對外直接投資中，投資重心在於支持發展中經濟體，投資大宗商品和採礦業。

The increase in China’s ODI is driven by the central government’s strong encouragement for domestic companies to invest overseas in a bid to boost theirinternational competitiveness. The added benefit to Beijing of ODI is it utilises surplus domestic capacity and helps to slow the rapid build-up of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, which reached a record $3.8tn at the end of 2014.

中國對外直接投資增加的推動力，來自中央政府強烈鼓勵國內企業通過到海外投資來提升自身國際競爭力。對外直接投資對北京方面的附加好處是，它能利用國內過剩產能，還有利於放緩外匯儲備的積累速度。2014年底，中國的外匯儲備餘額達到創紀錄的3.8萬億美元。

Slow global economic recovery and depreciating foreign currencies has provided a decent tailwind to this endeavour.

全球經濟復甦緩慢以及外幣貶值，爲中國的這一努力提供了不小的便利。

China’s ODI grew 19 per cent year-on-year on average between 2009 and 2014. This compared with foreign direct investment (FDI) into China growing on average 5 per cent year-on-year during the same period. Last year, China’s ODI reached $116 bn, almost the same reaching that of the FDI total of $120bn

2009年至2014年，中國對外直接投資平均每年增長19%，同期流入中國的外國直接投資(FDI)的年均增速僅爲5%。去年，中國的對外直接投資達1160億美元，幾乎接近2014年1200億美元的FDI流入量。

Some of the landmark and headline making deals we have seen include the $2.3bn acquisition by Lenovo of IBM’s x86 Server business. Another deal involved Anbang Insurance teaming up with Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc to purchase The Waldorf Astoria New York hotel for $1.95bn. Lastly but not least, in financial services, ICBC purchased a 60 per cent share of South African Standard Bank for $690m.

我們看到了一些具有里程碑意義、登上媒體頭條的併購交易，包括聯想(Lenovo)以23億美元收購IBM的x86 服務器業務，還有安邦保險(Anbang Insurance)攜手希爾頓全球控股有限公司(Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc)以19.5億美元收購紐約的華爾道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria)。還有一項重要交易發生在金融服務業——中國工商銀行(ICBC)以6.9億美元收購南非標準銀行(South African Standard Bank) 60%的股份。

So, what is the outlook for China’s ODI and are there any new trends to watch out for?

那麼，中國對外直接投資的前景如何，有哪些新趨勢值得關注？

Firstly, in our view China’s ODI will to continue to grow by around 20 per cent a year, with China overtaking the US as the world’s largest outbound direct investor in the next few years. This year, the pace of investment to accelerate, pushed by massive infrastructure investments in Asia and Europe envisioned in the “One Belt, One Road” initiative.

首先，我們認爲，中國對外直接投資將繼續以每年約20%的速度增長，中國在未來幾年內會超過美國成爲全球最大的對外直接投資國。今年，在“一帶一路”戰略構想的對亞洲和歐洲基礎設施大舉投資的推動下，對外投資速度將會加快。

Secondly, Chinese companies will continue to shift their geographic and sector focus. The investment destination is changing away from Africa, Latin America and Asia. Chinese investors are now making strategic investment in developed markets, in particular the European Union and North America. Europe has recorded 14 per cent of China’s ODI in goods and services in the last five years.

其次，中國企業在對外直接投資中關注的地域和行業也會繼續改變。投資的主要目的地將不再是非洲、拉美和亞洲。眼下中國投資者正對發達市場、尤其是歐盟(EU)和北美進行戰略投資。過去5年，歐洲佔到了中國商品和服務對外直接投資的14%。

In addition, China’s ‘Third Wave’ ODI is shifting focus from acquiring natural resources in coal, oil and metals to infrastructure including rail, shipping and ports. They are now turning to agriculture, technologies, high-end manufacturing, consumer goods, real estate, services and brands. This is at an early stage, but growth rates are rapidly accelerating.

此外，中國“第三波”對外直接投資的重心，開始從收購煤炭、石油和金屬等自然資源轉向鐵路、航運和港口等基礎設施。現在，中國企業轉向了農業、科技、高端製造、消費品、房地產、服務和品牌。這種轉變仍處於早期階段，但增速正顯著加快。

Finally, another important trend is that private investors are becoming the main driving force of ODI. State owned enterprises (SOEs) continue to do deals in the industrial, resources and energy sectors. Private owned enterprises (POEs) are investing in more value-added industry sectors such as agri-business, technology, high-end manufacturing and real estate in more countries and regions. They are looking for intellectual property and brands to bring back to the Chinese market.

最後，另一個重要趨勢是私營領域的投資者開始成爲中國對外直接投資的主要推動力。國企(SOE)繼續在工業、資源和能源行業發起併購。民營企業(POE)開始對更多國家和地區的農業經營、科技、高端製造和房地產等附加值更高的行業進行投資。它們希望把知識產權和品牌帶回到中國市場。

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have become the fastest way for Chinese companies to tap foreign markets and move higher up the value chain. Foreign currency depreciation against the renminbi prices continue to provide a favourable environment for China’s M&A activities.

併購已成爲中國企業打入外國市場、向價值鏈高端攀升的最快捷途徑。外幣對人民幣貶值繼續爲中國企業的併購提供有利的環境。

In the first quarter, transaction value of China’s outbound M&A deals surged 36 per cent to a historical high of $20.2bn, according to PwC. The number of deals jumped by 33 per cent year on year to a record high of 77, with privately owned enterprises accounting for 68 per cent of the M&As.

普華永道(PwC)數據顯示，今年第一季度，中國企業對外併購交易額大增36%，創下202億美元的歷史新高。交易數量同比增加33%，達到創紀錄的77個，其中68%的併購交易是由民企完成的。

Real Estate is the top targeted industry for over deals valued at more than $1bn, with $12.2bn via four deals in 2015 Year-to-date.

交易額高於10億美元的併購交易的頭號目標行業是房地產，該行業今年迄今已通過4筆交易完成122億美元的交易額。

Fast moving consumer goods, brands and experiences such as tourism and leisure sectors are expected to feature prominently in the “third wave” of China outbound M&A. This is driven by increased disposable income and wealth creation.

在“第三波”中國對外併購中，快速消費品、品牌、以及旅遊業與休閒行業等服務業有望成爲一個突出特色。這背後的推動力來自人們可支配收入和財富的增加。

We have seen also private equity make a meaningful contribution to the M&A activates for the first time. The deals in technology and consumer-related sectors accounted for more than half the total investment plans intended to align with the strategic direction of China’s wider economy. A similar trend was seen in deal values last year. There were 15 PEs and financial buyer deals valued at more than $1bn, another record.

我們也看到，私募股權基金第一次對併購活動做出重要的貢獻。在旨在與中國宏觀經濟戰略方向保持一致的所有投資計劃中，科技與消費相關行業的交易佔到了一半以上。去年的交易金額中也體現出了類似趨勢。去年有15傢俬募股權基金和財務投資者進行了併購，交易金額總計逾10億美元，也創下紀錄。

The opportunities, however, come with challenges. Acquiring value-added assets is likely to remain extremely difficult. Chinese companies are still not well understood overseas. Cultural integration can be a challenge. To adapt to these challenges we have seen private enterprises hiring local management, applying local operating models in a bid to retain talent and cut acquisition risk.

然而，機遇總是伴隨着挑戰。收購附加值型資產可能仍然極端困難。中國企業在海外仍得不到充分理解。文化融合可能是一種挑戰。我們看到，爲了適應這些挑戰，民營企業僱傭了當地人才擔任管理層，採取當地運營模式，以便留住人才並降低收購風險。

China’s new wave of ODI is underpinned by the Chinese government actively reforming and deregulating its regulation of overseas investment. We can expect more developments in the near and mid-term. For instance, with Chinese companies speeding up their pace of overseas expansion, renminbi-denominated deals could be promoted in overseas mergers and expansions.

支撐中國新一波對外直接投資的，是中國政府積極地改革和放鬆對海外投資的監管。我們可以期待，這方面近期和中期會有更多進展。比如說，隨着中國企業加快海外擴張步伐，以人民幣計價的交易可能會在海外併購和擴張中得到推廣。

In particular, the expansion of China’s trading and capital investment space in regional economic cooperation would greatly facilitate further the internationalisation of China’s renminbi through deepening the pool of renminbi liquidity globally, more renminbi cross-border investment along with associated cross-border renminbi loans and other derivatives.

尤其是，隨着在地區經濟合作方面中國貿易與資本投資空間的擴大，全球範圍內人民幣流動性池子會加深，會產生更多跨境人民幣投資，以及相關的跨境人民幣貸款及其他衍生品，從而極大地推進人民幣國際化。

All in all, Chinese corporate overseas investment is supported by the central government and is helping to further open the economy at home and China’s participation in the global economy is a new era of global cooperation and a clear win-win story.

歸根結底，中國企業海外投資得到了中央政府的支持，有利於在國內進一步放開經濟，在國外推動中國參與全球經濟之中。這是一個全球合作的新時代，會譜寫出明顯的雙贏故事。

Spencer Lake is Global Head of Capital Financing at HSBC

本文作者爲匯豐(HSBC)環球資本融資主管