全球經濟復甦依然脆弱

Fragile world economy still on ‘life support’

全球經濟復甦依然脆弱

The world economy “remains on life support” from central banks and has deteriorated since last autumn, the latest Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index shows, despite some recent signs of stabilisation.

最新的布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)—英國《金融時報》追蹤指標顯示，世界經濟“仍然依賴”各國央行來“維持生命”，並且自去年秋天以來世界經濟狀況有所惡化。

Weakness extends across the Group of 20 leading economies, according to the TIGER (Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery) index, but advanced economies have deteriorated more than developing countries.

全球經濟復甦追蹤指標(TIGER)顯示，經濟乏力的現象普遍存在於二十國集團(G20)領先經濟體中，但發達經濟體的惡化程度比發展中國家更加嚴重。

The index provides support for the message Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, sent last week that although there has been some improvement since the turn of the year, “the risks remain high, the situation fragile”.

這一指標支持了國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)上週發表的評論，即儘管從年初開始有一些好轉，但“風險仍然很高，局面很脆弱”。

Although markets recovered significantly in the first quarter of the year as investors welcomed the European Central Bank’s injection of liquidity into the eurozone’s banks, the outlook for growth and jobs has become more precarious almost everywhere except in the US.

儘管隨着投資者歡迎歐洲央行(ECB)向歐洲銀行體系注入流動性，今年一季度市場顯著復甦，但除了美國外，其他國家的經濟增長和就業前景都變得更加不確定了。

Professor Eswar Prasad of the Brookings Institution said: “The global economic recovery is still sputtering due to a lack of robust demand, policy tools that are stretched to their limits and unable to muster much traction, and enormous risks posed by weak financial systems and political uncertainty.”

布魯金斯學會的埃斯華•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)教授指出：“由於缺乏強勁的需求，且政策工具已經用足，無法施加更強的拉動，加上虛弱的金融體系和政治不確定性構成巨大風險，全球經濟復甦仍然斷斷續續。”

The real economy component of the index has been hard hit as growth prospects in Europe, already fragile after the 2011 crisis, have been further undermined by brutal austerity plans in many countries. “This is stifling growth, worsening debt-to-GDP ratios in the short run, and generating an unsustainable political situation at the domestic and pan-European levels,” Prof Prasad said.

該指數的實體經濟成分受到了歐洲經濟增長前景的巨大打擊，歐洲經濟在2011年的危機後已經十分脆弱，許多國家實施的無情的財政緊縮方案又令其雪上加霜。普拉薩德教授說：“這會扼殺經濟增長，在短期惡化債務與GDP的比值，在各國國內和整個歐洲的層面上造成不可持續的政治局面。”

The US recovery, by contrast has become more robust although it remains vulnerable to shocks and its growth remains modest.

與此形成反差的是，美國經濟復甦已經變得更加強勁，儘管美國仍然易受衝擊影響，而且經濟增長有限。

But it is not just the advanced economies that are suffering. The growth outlook in emerging markets has also deteriorated with output falling short of expectations in all of the Bric countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China. “The burden of sustaining world growth is taking a toll on emerging market economies,” Prof Prasad said.

狀況不佳的並不僅限於發達經濟體。新興市場國家的增長前景也出現惡化，所有金磚國家（巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國）的經濟產出均遜於預期。普拉薩德說：“維持全球增長的重擔，正使新興市場經濟體付出代價。”