美聯儲新主席應保持政策連續性

Donald Trump, most of whose economic policy initiatives have achieved little to nothing, has made one of the most important decisions since his election. The US president has nominated Jay Powell as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.

以往大多數經濟舉措都收效甚微的唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)，做出了自己當選以來最重要的決策之一。這位美國總統已提名傑伊?鮑威爾(Jay Powell)爲新一任美聯儲(Federal Reserve)主席。

A preferable outcome, as the Financial Times has argued, would have been the reappointment of Janet Yellen, who has been Fed chair since 2014 after joining the board of governors in 2010.

英國《金融時報》已指出，更好的結果本應是珍妮特?耶倫(Janet Yellen)繼續連任，耶倫2010年進入美聯儲理事會，自2014年起出任美聯儲主席。

Rightly, Ms Yellen has broadly continued the approach of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, of being prepared to use unorthodox means to stimulate the economy. The Fed’s policy of withdrawing that stimulus is more debatable, but at least the move has been gradual thus far. Since he seems to represent continuity of approach, Mr Powell was the second-best choice of the candidates interviewed by Mr Trump.

耶倫正確地在大體上延續了其前任本?伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的政策，願意用非常規手段刺激經濟。美聯儲退出刺激措施的政策更具爭議性，但至少到目前爲止此舉是循序漸進的。鮑威爾似乎代表了政策的延續，因此是特朗普面見的候選人中的第二佳人選。

He does come with two disadvantages. He has argued for financial deregulation, rolling back some of the post-global crisis clampdown on risky behaviour. Together with the views of Randal Quarles, the vice-chairman for bank supervision, the Fed seems likely to shift towards arguing for more lax rules for financial institutions. However, Mr Powell’s views on the subject are relatively nuanced and moderate. He has extensive experience in financial markets and is regarded as a pragmatist rather than an ideological deregulator.

鮑威爾的確有兩個劣勢。他一直主張放鬆金融管制，撤銷全球金融危機後對冒險行爲的一些打壓。加上美聯儲負責金融監管的副主席蘭德爾?夸爾斯(Randal Quarles)也提倡爲銀行鬆綁，美聯儲似乎可能轉向支持爲金融機構制定更寬鬆的規則。然而，在這個問題上，鮑威爾的看法相對微妙而溫和。他在金融市場上經驗豐富，並被認爲是個務實派，而不是一位空想的放鬆監管支持者。

Second, the new chairman is a lawyer rather than an economist, and as such his judgments on economics will always be subject to question. The previous non-economist in the job was G William Miller, appointed by the president Jimmy Carter in 1978. Mr Miller, who lasted only just over a year, was a disaster, refusing to tighten monetary policy in the face of high inflation.

其次，這位美聯儲新主席是一名律師而不是一位經濟學家，因此他對經濟狀況的判斷總會受到質疑。上一位非經濟學家出身的美聯儲主席是威廉?米勒(iam Miller)，他在1978年被當時的美國總統吉米?卡特(Jimmy Carter)任命。米勒僅當了一年多美聯儲主席，那是一場災難，面對高通脹他拒絕收緊貨幣政策。

Mr Powell is unlikely to be another Mr Miller. For one, he has solidly supported the Fed’s strategy of recent years: it would be a surprise if he suddenly took a radically hawkish turn. Second, the Fed’s open market committee has become a much more open place under Ms Yellen and Mr Bernanke, with more willingness to tolerate dissent than the Fed of Mr Bernanke’s predecessor, Alan Greenspan.

鮑威爾不太可能成爲另一個米勒。第一，近年來他堅決支持美聯儲的策略：倘若他徹底轉變爲貨幣政策鷹派，那將是個意外。第二，在耶倫與伯南克的領導下，美聯儲的公開市場委員會已變得更加開放，比起伯南克的前任艾倫?格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在位時，對異議的包容度也更高。

Accordingly, the potential for Mr Powell to ram through his own views is limited. Across Washington, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has overcome the drawback of being a lawyer. She has compensated for her own lack of expertise by consulting widely with the fund’s economists.

因此，鮑威爾強行推行自己想法的可能性不大。縱觀華盛頓，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)已經克服了作爲一名律師的短板。通過廣泛諮詢基金內部的經濟學家，她彌補了自身專業知識的匱乏。

However, with a lawyer in the chair, the composition of the rest of the Fed board becomes unusually important. If Mr Trump surrounds Mr Powell with governors of a hawkish disposition, it may be harder for him to argue for easy monetary policy.

然而，當一位律師擔任主席時，美聯儲理事會其他成員的構成就變得異常重要。假如特朗普讓鮑威爾身邊環繞鷹派立場的理事，那鮑威爾可能更難推行寬鬆的貨幣政策。

In this context, it would be wise for Ms Yellen to continue as a governor even when her term as chair comes to an end in February next year. She has the right to retain her seat on the board until 2024. This would be unusual, but not unprecedented, and these are times when the need for wise counsel will be particularly important. If the US economy encounters another crisis and the need for extraordinary measures such as a fresh quantitative easing programme recurs, her experience and analysis would be highly valuable.

在這種形勢下，耶倫在明年2月結束主席任期後繼續擔任美聯儲理事將是明智之舉。她有權將自己在美聯儲理事會的席位保留至2024年。這並不常見，但也並非史無前例，而且當前的局面尤爲需要明智的建議。如果美國經濟遭遇另一場危機，同時又需要採取非常措施，如新一輪量化寬鬆計劃，耶倫的經驗和分析將非常有價值。

Mr Trump has made a reasonable, if not optimal, choice. The challenge now is for Mr Powell to hold the Fed’s existing, mainly sensible, line, that it should depart only gradually from the extraordinary monetary measures that have done so much to support the US economy for the past 10 years.

特朗普做出了一個合理的選擇，即使這不是最佳之選。鮑威爾現在面臨的挑戰是，維持美聯儲現有的、基本明智的路線，即只能逐步退出過去十年爲支撐美國經濟做出了巨大貢獻的非常貨幣措施。