匯豐,漫長的告別

It is moot whether long-serving chief executives time their exits to coincide with buoyant results, or vice versa. Either way, Stuart Gulliver or HSBC, which he leaves in 2018, may have fluffed a cue. Adjusted profits before tax rose 12.4 per cent to $11.9bn at the half year, beating forecasts and taking the shares briefly within a whisker of post-crisis high.

任職多年的首席執行官是否會選在業績優異時離職——或者反過來——這一問題並無定論。無論怎樣，定於2018年離職的歐智華(Stuart Gulliver)或匯豐(HSBC)都可能發出了錯誤的提示。上半年匯豐調整後稅前利潤上漲12.4%至119億美元，不但高於預測值，且一度差點讓股價衝上危機後高點。

Mr Gulliver was coy on the repeatability of the $2bn buyback scheduled for the second half. But some investors believe the item should now recur. Conduct charges certainly have in recent years. They were represented this time by a $300m provision for mis-sold payment protection insurance.

關於下半年20億美元回購計劃的可重複性，歐智華不願多談。但有些投資者認爲應該會再次發生。與不當從業行爲有關的費用近年來顯然一再發生。這次是一筆與不當銷售支付保護險(PPI)有關的3億美元準備金。

Core tier one equity, a measure of financial strength, has risen to 14.7 per cent of risk-weighted assets. That gives the bank $13bn of capital over and above its target of 13 per cent, UBS notes. HSBC will invest some of the money and use another slice as a buffer against risk. The buyback would be deducted from the balance.

匯豐核心一級資本（衡量財務實力）已上升至風險加權資產的14.7%。瑞銀(UBS)表示這使匯豐銀行的資本比13%的資本充足率目標高出130億美元。匯豐將把部分資金用於投資，並拿出另一部分資金用來緩衝風險。此次回購所用資金將從餘額中扣除。

Further share repurchases depend on risks remaining in check and profits staying healthy. On the first count, a danger is that China becomes less tolerant of HSBC’s dominant position in retail banking in Hong Kong. The second relies on the first. Deposits have been growing strongly in the former UK colony. As rates rise they should fatten a net interest margin that has slipped to 1.64 per cent.

進一步股票回購取決於風險繼續受到控制，以及利潤保持健康。就第一點來說，中國對匯豐在香港零售銀行業主導地位的容忍度在下降，這是個危險。而第二點要依靠第一點。這塊前英國殖民地的存款一直增長強勁。隨着利率上升，他們應該把已下滑至1.64%的淨利息收益率提高。

Westerners fret perpetually over high Chinese leverage, to which Chinese bankers huffily reply: “look at our assets”. Higher Asian loan provisions this half year have other causes. Systemic dangers are therefore in abeyance, even if HSBC needs to assess each borrower more closely.

西方人始終對中國的高槓杆感到擔憂，中國銀行家們對此憤怒地回覆：“看看我們的資產”。這半年亞洲貸款損失準備金的增加有其他原因。因此係統性風險的問題可以暫時擱置，即使匯豐需要更密切地評估每個借款人。

A focus on Asian savers reduces the perils implicit in Brexit-related restructuring and ownership of a large investment bank. HSBC does not expect a rejig triggered by the UK’s conscious uncoupling to cost more than $300m. Over the past six months, the global banking and markets unit raised adjusted profits before tax 32 per cent to $3.4bn. Over the next six months, who knows?

對亞洲儲戶的關注，降低了與英國脫歐相關的重組以及擁有一家大型投行可能暗藏的風險。匯豐沒有預料到英國主動脫歐所引發的重組將耗費超過3億美元。在過去六個月中，全球銀行和市場部門的調整後稅前利潤提高了32%，達到34億美元。而接下來的六個月誰知道？

The shares look fully valued at 14 times forward earnings and 1.8 times tangible book value. Conspiracy theorists may still consider buying on the basis that Mr Gulliver is holding back further goodies for his valedictory full-year results. After that, they would sell in anticipation of the writedowns a revisionist successor might bring.

股票看起來估值充分，預期市盈率達到14倍，市淨率達到1.8倍。陰謀論者或許仍考慮購買，理由是歐智華正爲他的全年業績告別秀隱瞞更多利好。之後他們會拋售，因爲他們預期修正主義的繼任者或許會做一些減記。