中國投資對巴基斯坦來說是把雙刃劍

The Chinese can be forgiven for seeking out a reliable ally on their border. With Russia to the north, rival India to the south, an increasingly defiant North Korea to the east and Afghanistan in the throes of turmoil to the west, good neighbours are in short supply. That Pakistan comes closest to what the Chinese like to call an “all weather friend” shows how poor China’s options are.

中國人在邊境線上尋找可靠的盟友情有可原。北邊是俄羅斯、南邊是對手印度、東邊是日益肆無忌憚的朝鮮、西邊是動盪不斷的阿富汗，在這種情況下，好鄰居十分短缺。巴基斯坦最接近於被中國稱爲“全天候朋友”，這表明中國的選擇是多麼有限。

It is an odd relationship that has been decades in the making. China is consolidating it with billions of dollars in infrastructure and energy investment, military exports and bailout loans to prop up the Pakistani currency. The latter have been worth $1.2bn since last year, underlining the extent to which Islamabad is becoming reliant on Beijing as US patronage wavers. This alliance presents risks for both sides. Meanwhile, the west cannot afford to abandon nuclear-armed Pakistan altogether, as much as it might like to.

這是一種發展了數十年的奇怪關係。中國通過數十億美元的基礎設施和能源投資、軍事裝備出口以及爲支撐巴基斯坦匯率而發放的紓困貸款，不斷鞏固這種關係。自去年以來，中國向巴基斯坦發放的紓困貸款達到12億美元，突顯了在美國金主動搖之際伊斯蘭堡對北京的依賴程度。中巴聯盟對雙方都構成風險。與此同時，徹底放棄擁有核武器的巴基斯坦是西方承受不起的——儘管西方可能很想這麼做。

On the surface the two states have little in common. The Chinese state is strong and its economy is growing. The Pakistani state, apart from the military, is weak and its economic performance disastrous. China is communist and religion is tightly controlled. Pakistan is Islamic and religious fervour is everywhere.

表面上，兩國幾乎沒有什麼共同點。中國實力強大，經濟不斷增長。而巴基斯坦除軍事外各方面實力都很弱，其經濟表現糟糕透頂。中國是共產主義國家，宗教受到嚴格控制。巴基斯坦是伊斯蘭國家，宗教熱情四處洋溢。

Despite this, developing common interests is natural for the two neighbours. The alliance furthers China’s ambition to recreate a Sino-centric Asian order while keeping common rival India on its toes.

儘管如此，發展共同利益對這兩個鄰國來說是自然而然的事。中巴聯盟有助於中國實現重建以中國爲中心的亞洲秩序的雄心，同時又讓中巴共同的對手印度不敢輕舉妄動。

There are drawbacks for Pakistan in becoming too dependent. Its trade deficit with China has doubled in recent years, exacerbating declines in its foreign currency reserves. This has forced the country to seek emergency loans from outside sources — including China — to maintain payments on older loans made in foreign currencies.

對於巴基斯坦而言，過度依賴中國存在一些弊端。近年來，巴基斯坦對華貿易逆差增加了一倍，致使其外匯儲備加速流失。這迫使巴基斯坦從外部（包括中國）尋求緊急貸款，以維持償還以外幣計價的舊貸款的能力。

China’s investments, rather than prioritising Pakistan’s development interests, favours its own strategic ones. But it will be Pakistan that has to pay back the loans that fund the projects. China is planning up to $55bn worth of infrastructure and energy projects as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. This will link its west with the Gwadar port in southern Pakistan through railways, roads and energy supply pipelines. Pakistan has also become the biggest importer of Chinese military hardware and has eight submarines on order. The terms of these contracts are not disclosed, making it impossible for Pakistanis to determine whether they are getting value for money.

中國安排投資側重點的依據是自身的戰略利益需求，而非巴基斯坦的發展需求。但巴基斯坦將是不得不償還項目貸款的一方。中國計劃建設價值550億美元的基礎設施和能源項目，作爲“中巴經濟走廊”(China-Pakistan Economic Corridor)計劃的一部分。該計劃將通過鐵路、公路和能源供應管道把中國西部與巴基斯坦南部的瓜達爾港連接起來。巴基斯坦也已成爲中國軍事裝備最大的進口國，並已訂購8艘潛艇。這些合同的具體條款並未透露，使得巴基斯坦人無法判斷它們是否物有所值。

Nor is there any guarantee that the projects will be commercially viable. You do not have to look far to find Chinese-backed white elephants. The Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, which struggles to pay staff salaries, is one.

這些項目能否在商業上取得成功也無法打包票。由中國出資建設的華而不實的項目屢見不鮮。目前難以支付員工薪水的斯里蘭卡漢班託塔(Hambantota)港就是一例。

The most obvious risk for China is that Pakistan ultimately proves unable to honour its debts, and that it becomes as undependable a client as it has for the US. Islamabad has encouraged fundamentalist Islam with one hand of the state while checking it with another, poisoning relations with Washington. For the same reason, it may be a complicated partner for the Chinese, who have every reason to fear Islamist influence spreading across their western border.

對中國來說，最顯而易見的風險是巴基斯坦最終無法償還債務，以及它有朝一日不再是中國可靠的從屬國，就像它不再是美國可靠的從屬國那樣。伊斯蘭堡一隻手助長伊斯蘭原教旨主義、另一隻手製約它，這破壞了與華盛頓之間的關係。出於同樣原因，巴基斯坦對中國人來說可能是個不省心的夥伴，中國完全有理由擔心伊斯蘭主義影響越過巴中邊境滲透至中國西部。

It might be tempting for the US to breathe a sigh of relief as China bails out its erstwhile client. This would be a mistake. It would also be a mistake for the US to see Pakistan as the object of rivalry between itself and China. Instead, the two superpowers have a common interest in a prosperous Pakistan, one that stops exporting terrorists around the world and begins to stabilise its tortuous relationship with its other neighbour, India.

美國看到中國搭救了自己曾經的從屬國時，可能不禁如釋重負。這麼想將是錯誤的。此外，美國也不應把巴基斯坦視爲自己與中國爭奪的對象。相反，推動巴基斯坦繁榮發展、停止向世界各地輸出恐怖分子、着手穩定其與鄰國印度的複雜關係，符合美中兩個超級大國的共同利益。