創新競爭：美是否落後於中國和印度?

U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to travel to the Western states of California and Oregon this week to meet with the heads of leading high-tech companies. His trip comes just weeks after the president outlined plans in his State of the Union Address to put more emphasis on innovation and education. To learn more about the significance of the trip and whether the United States is losing its competitive edge against emerging economic powerhouses like India and China, VOA's William Ide spoke with Adam Segal at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. He is the author of the new book: Advantage: How American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge.

美國總統奧巴馬這個星期前往舊金山和俄勒岡洲，同主要高科技公司的負責人會晤。就在幾個星期前，奧巴馬總統在國情諮演講中強調創新和教育的重要性，並宣佈了相應計劃。爲了瞭解奧巴馬此行的重要性，以及面對中國和印度等新興經濟體的挑戰，美國是否正在喪失創新競爭優勢的問題，記者採訪了美國對外關係委員會(US Council on Foreign Relations)資深研究員亞當·西格爾(Adam Segal)。西格爾最近出版了新書，題目是《優勢：美國如何對應來自亞洲的創新挑戰》。

IDE: Increasingly, there is an assumption that the United States is losing its edge to China and India, and that it is on the decline. What are the recent developments that seem to support that assumption?

艾德：現在很多人認爲，美國在創新競爭中正在喪失優勢，中國和印度正在後來居上。那麼近期的事態發展是否能證明這種推斷呢？

SEGAL: "I think people point a lot to the numbers coming out, especially about China - so for example the PISA [Program for International Student Assessment] test out of Shanghai, where Shanghai high schoolers scored higher on math and science than we expected. The patent numbers - China is now the number two patent filer in the world, past Japan. I think they look at things like wind turbines and solar energy and how the Chinese are dominating those markets as well as high-speed rail. So I think all of those things are shown as evidence that China, in particular, is closing the gap."

西格爾：我認爲人們尤其關注有關中國的數據。比如國際學生評估計劃PISA在上海地區的考試，高中生的數理化成績就高於預期。中國現在的專利申請數量位居全球第二，已經超過了日本。此外，中國在風力發電、太陽能研製和高鐵等領域也開始佔領市場。所以我認爲，這些都證明，中國正在縮小與美國的差距。

IDE: But you don't agree with that assumption? And that's the topic of the book you recently released.

艾德：但你並不贊同這種推斷。你的新書就是要說明這點，是嗎？

SEGAL: "That's right. I basically make a distinction between what I call the "hardware" and the "software" of innovation. The hardware are the things that I've mentioned - easily measurable metrics such as papers and patents and all these things. And the software are the political, social and cultural understandings that help move ideas from labs to the market place. And then if you look at China and India, you see that those are harder to build. For example, on the publication side, this week we also had a major story out of China about academic fraud and plagiarism, which has been a huge problem. On the patent side, yes, the Chinese have increased the number of patents. But the quality of the patents is actually very low and most of them are actually filed for other reasons. So if you look at these kind of [questions] - How do you train a scientist? How you help start up companies? How do you protect intellectual property rights? - you see that there is a long way to go to build these things in China and India. And that's why I am less pessimistic about what the U.S. can do."

西格爾：是的。我將創新大致分成硬件和軟件兩塊。硬件是文章、專利等可以計算的，軟件是政治、社會和文化等可以幫助把設想轉化爲現實的因素。中國和印度就是在軟件方面的發展相對滯後。比如，本星期有報道說，中國出版業學術欺詐與剽竊現象相當嚴重。專利方面，中國的申請數量的確增加了，但質量實際很差，而且大部分申請是另有所圖。所以，什麼是培養科學家的方法？如何成立公司？怎樣保護知識產權？中國和印度在這些方面還差很遠。

IDE: Why are trips like the one that President Obama is making to Silicon Valley in the San Francisco area important? Or are they not that important?

艾德：奧巴馬總統訪問舊金山灣區，參觀英特爾公司，意義究竟何在？

SEGAL: "I think they clearly are slightly symbolic and a lot about public relations. But I do think they are important in the sense that the president needs to build a narrative about what our strengths are and what we need to do to compete. And I think innovation is clearly at the top of that list and I also think that it is important that people realize this is an area of strength for us. If you look at how innovation is changing, it is becoming more globalized, spread around the world to all of these newly emerging science and technology centers in China and India. And the U.S., in fact, is well positioned to take advantage of those. We have extensive connections to all of those places through alumni networks, university collaboration and corporate networks. I think the U.S. is better positioned than any country to take advantage of this kind of new global system of science and technology. So I think it's important for the president to point to our strengths and some of the things we need to do as we move forward."

西格爾：這裏公關的用意很明顯。但這次訪問還是很重要，因爲總統想展示美國的科研實力，以及如何提高競爭力，創新優勢無疑是最重要的領域。人民意識到美國在這方面的優勢很重要。如果你留意創新的演變，你就會發現創新越來越全球化，並向中國和印度等新興科技中心拓展。美國實際上可以利用自身實力。美國學術界、大學和企業同這些地區聯繫廣泛。同其他國家相比，美國能更好地利用此類新興全球化的科技體系。所以，奧巴馬總統此行展示國家科研實力，就很重要。

IDE: How is China pulling ahead and how much further does it have to go before it could surpass the United States?

艾德：中國在創新領域是否可能超越美國？

SEGAL: "It is clearly making gains in areas that are going to be important in the future. I think the one [area] that gets the most attention, of course, is new energy - wind turbines and solar panels. Both of those really have more to do about scale - the Chinese ability to deploy in large numbers those technologies and drive the price down. There hasn't been really a significant breakthrough on the technology side from Chinese producers and I don't expect one in the near term. I think the greatest threat from China in the near term - and again, I don't necessarily think we need to perceive it as a threat - where we might see some breakthroughs are probably in telecommunications and nano [technology], where the Chinese have produced a great deal of papers and are doing a great deal of work. I think if you look across the board at the Chinese economy, they are several decades behind the U.S. on the technological front. And I expect that that will remain that way for quite some time."

西格爾：中國在未來研究領域進步明顯，最令人矚目的是風力發電和太陽能等新能源領域。這同中國的產業規模有關。中國能使用大量的新技術，壓低價格，但中國廠商並沒有在技術上取得多大的突破，短期內也不可能。我認爲，中國短期內的最大威脅，是可能會在通訊和納米技術領域取得一些突破。中國在這兩個方面發表了不少論文，進行了很多研究。但總體而言，中國科技要落後美國幾十年。這在短期內不會改變。

IDE: President Obama in his recent State of the Union address spoke about the importance of education and innovation, and "winning the future" by out-innovating the rest of the world. What is it that the United States needs to do more of to maintain its edge in innovation?

艾德：奧巴馬總統在國情諮文演講中說教育與創新很重要，美國創新需要領先世界，才能贏得未來。美國需要怎樣做，才能鞏固美國的創新領導地位？

SEGAL: "I think part of the problem moving forward is going to be money. The one area of President Obama's budget that wasn't heavily cut was research and development spending of the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy. And in fact, both of those were increased. But if those are going to survive the budget process - and Republicans in the House of Representatives seem intent on cutting that - is going to be a major issue. Just having the resources, I think, is going to be a serious issue for the U.S. moving forward. There has also been a lot of talk about how we need to have more scientists and engineers in the United States, that China and India are eventually going to train more people and pass us. I think that is partly the right answer. But I think the real thing we need to be focusing on is: what it is we are actually training our engineers and scientists to do, what type of skills they have and, increasingly, do they have international experience."

西格爾：我認爲資金是很重要的問題。奧巴馬提交的聯邦預算，並沒有大幅削減國家科學基金會(National Science Foundation)和美國能源部的研發經費，實施上還有增加。但衆議院共和黨人似乎有意削減這些經費，總統的預算能否成功過關，是個大問題。很多人在談論美國需要培養更多的科學家和工程師，因爲中印兩國的科學家與工程師的數量最終會超過我們。所以資金很重要。但更重要的，是我們需要着重考慮科學家與工程師的培養方向。他們需要具備什麼樣的能力？是否需要國際經驗等。