匯市交易與人民幣交易不該是數字遊戲

China bears rejoice: if Hong Kong’s exports to China can jump an eye-popping 200 per cent, as they did last month, then mainlanders must still be actively seeking ways to move funds offshore. But bears with a short-term eye beware: it pays to trade what China actually does with its currency — not what its numbers say.

唱空中國者要開心了，如果香港對內地出口能夠像上個月那樣驚人躍升200%，那就說明內地人肯定仍在積極想方設法向海外轉移資金。但短期唱空者要注意：要在匯市交易，最好以中國對人民幣採取的實際行動（而不是數據所反映的情況）爲依據。

China’s weekend data dump certainly implied renminbi weakness ahead. Any confidence from a second straight month of rising currency reserves was countered by the fact that it was due entirely to valuation effects, not inflows. And within the so-so trade data lay the glaring discrepancy between China’s claims of a 203 per cent rise in imports from Hong Kong last month, and the former British colony’s report that exports to the mainland dropped 10 per cent. Last week, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said it had stepped up efforts to crack down on over-invoicing. Inflating payments due to an offshore entity is a well-known method of moving funds offshore.

上週末中國發布的數據肯定暗示，人民幣接下來將會走弱。外匯儲備連續第二個月上升帶來的所有信心都被一個事實抵消了：這一增加完全是因爲估值效應，而不是因爲流入。同時表現平平的貿易數據還含有明顯差異，中國聲稱上月從香港進口上升203%，而香港報告向內地出口下降10%。上週，香港金融管理局(HKMA)表示已加大力度打擊虛開貿易發票。誇大向離岸實體的應付款項，是衆所周知的向海外轉移資金的一種方法。

So far, bets on a weaker renminbi have tended to focus on its dollar value. On top of the data, bears have taken heart from the fact that, last week, the People’s Bank of China weakened the renminbi’s daily midpoint by the most in a single day this year. Also, the gap between onshore and offshore rates has widened slightly. However, those bears would be better off thinking about China’s trade-weighted basket. Since December, the renminbi has been falling at an annualised rate of 12 per cent a year on this basis, according to Citigroup. Against the dollar this year, in spite of the early-year furore, the renminbi is flat.

到目前爲止，相信人民幣會走弱的人通常將重點放在人民幣兌美元的匯率上。除了數據以外，唱空者還受到另一項事實的鼓舞：上週，中國央行(PBoC)下調人民幣匯率每日中間價的幅度達到今年單日最大值。此外，在岸和離岸匯率之間的差距有所拉大。不過，這些唱空者最好考慮一下中國的貿易加權貨幣籃子。據花旗集團(Citigroup)的數據，自去年12月以來，人民幣相對於這個貨幣籃子的年率化降幅達到12%。今年人民幣兌美元匯率則保持平穩，雖然年初出現過波動。

One trick is not to focus on the renminbi’s daily dollar midpoint for clues as to PBoC thinking. In January and February, the PBoC enlisted the so-called fix — around which the onshore rate may trade 2 per cent — as a weapon in its battle against a wave of bearish renminbi bets. But since then, the fix can generally be predicted, as the PBoC promised last year, from a combination of overnight dollar moves and the onshore market’s previous close. Last week’s big weakening, for example, becomes less of a PBoC policy signal when the dollar’s simultaneous surge is taken into account. Renminbi weakness is happening, But it is time to take another look at how exactly it can be traded.

一個竅門是不要糾結於人民幣兌美元匯率每日中間價，視其爲揣測中國央行思路的線索。今年1月和2月，中國央行將這個中間價——人民幣在岸匯率可以在其上下2%範圍內波動——當作武器，對抗一波賣空人民幣的押注。但自那以來，結合隔夜美元動態以及在岸市場前一日收盤價，基本可以預測出中間價，就像中國央行去年承諾的那樣。以上週人民幣匯率大幅下滑爲例，如果考慮到美元同時出現的飆升，這種下滑就變得不那麼像是中國央行的政策信號。人民幣正在走弱，但現在是時候重新思考怎樣藉機交易。