負利率政策已近極限 Negative rates may be nearing a political limit

In less than two years, negative interest rates have moved from the abstract realms of economic theory into the mainstream of monetary policymaking. The experiment under way in the eurozone, Japan and some smaller European economies has shown that the practical obstacles to taking rates below zero are not as large as once imagined. Proponents say the policy — intended to encourage consumers to spend and banks to lend more to the real economy — has saved the eurozone from sinking into disastrous deflation. But the evidence for this remains tentative. Meanwhile, negative rates are undeniably unpopular, and the longer they remain in place the greater the risk of unintended consequences.

還不到兩年，負利率就從抽象的經濟理論領域進入了貨幣政策制定的主流。歐元區、日本和歐洲更小經濟體正在進行的實驗已表明，把利率壓低至負數的實際障礙，沒有人們之前想象的那麼大。支持者表示，該政策——旨在鼓勵消費者花錢、鼓勵銀行向實體經濟發放更多貸款——已拯救了歐元區，使之沒有跌入災難性通縮。但仍沒有決定性證據能夠證明這一點。另一方面，負利率無疑是不受歡迎的，負利率執行時間越長，帶來意外後果的風險也越大。

The latest attack on the policy comes from Larry Fink, head of the asset manager BlackRock, who warns of the toll that low, and now negative, rates are taking on savers. People who want a certain income at retirement must now invest far more to achieve it and cut spending accordingly, he argues — making the policy counterproductive.

負利率政策受到的最新批評，來自資產管理公司貝萊德(BlackRock)的掌門人拉里•芬克(Larry Fink，見上圖)。芬克對很低、目前進入負區間的利率對儲戶造成的危害提出了警告。他辯稱，希望讓退休後的收入達到一定數額的人，現在必須投資更多才能拿到那個數額，並必須相應地減少消費，這恰恰與負利率政策期望的效果相反。

This could be said of any cut in interest rates, which will always shift income from savers to borrowers. The burden on savers need not outweigh the boost to borrowers simply because interest rates have crossed a psychological threshold at zero.

可以說，每一次降息都有這樣的效果。降息時，收益總是從儲戶流向借款者。降息加在儲戶身上的負擔，未必會僅因爲利率跨過了零的心理關口，就超過降息對借款者的提振。

Nonetheless, José Viñals, a senior IMF official, has warned that negative rates could become more damaging for society the longer they persist, undermining the viability of life insurers, pensions and savings vehicles.

然而，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)高級官員何塞•比尼亞爾斯(José Viñals)警告稱，負利率持續時間越長，可能對社會構成的危害就越大，破壞壽險公司、養老金和儲蓄工具的存續能力。

Savers’ anger is already a very real political constraint on cutting rates further. In Japan, the central bank has attempted to shield retail deposits from the full effect of negative rates, but some banks are now set to impose charges on cash they hold for pension funds. In Germany, the issue of pensioner poverty is so explosive that Wolfgang Schäuble has blamed the rise of populist political parties on European Central Bank policies.

儲戶的憤怒在政治上已經對央行進一步降息構成非常切實的約束。在日本，央行已採取措施減輕負利率對零售儲蓄的衝擊，但現在，有些銀行已確定要對自己替養老基金持有的資金收費。在德國，退休老人的貧困問題爭議性非常大，乃至財長沃爾夫岡•朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Schäuble)把民粹主義政黨的崛起歸咎於歐洲央行(ECB)的政策。

A bigger concern for eurozone policymakers has been the effect of negative interest rates on an already fragile banking sector. Institutions that are unable to increase lending or to pass the costs of negative rates on to their depositors face a squeeze on profits. For all banks, there is an incentive to rely more on cheaper, but more volatile, wholesale funding.

令歐元區政策制定者更爲擔心的問題，是負利率對本已脆弱的銀行業的衝擊。那些無法加大放貸或把負利率成本轉嫁給儲戶的銀行，其利潤會遭到擠壓。所有銀行都有動力更多地依賴成本更低、但更不穩定的批發資金。

Despite these concerns, many central bankers contend that the overall effect of negative rates has been positive. Wholesale interest rates have fallen, and credit growth in the eurozone has picked up since their introduction. For smaller economies, the policy has also helped to limit capital inflows and stem currency appreciation — despite the notable and counterintuitive rise in the euro and yen.

儘管存在這些擔憂，許多央行仍辯稱，負利率的總體效果是積極的。批發利率已下降，自負利率被引入以來，歐元區的信貸增長有所加快。對更小的經濟體而言，負利率政策也幫助限制了資本流入並阻止本幣升值——儘管歐元和日元出現了違反常理的顯著升值。

Ben Bernanke, the former Federal Reserve chair, judges that anxiety has been overdone and that the policy has “modest benefits and manageable costs”. It could be a useful tool for the Fed if US policymakers want to ease without “rolling out the big QE gun”.

美聯儲(Fed)前主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)認爲，人們的擔憂有些過頭了，負利率政策“具有一定的好處和可控的代價”。如果美國政策制定者希望在不“使出量化寬鬆(QE)大招”的情況下實現寬鬆，那麼負利率對美聯儲而言可能會是一個有用的工具。

Yet there are clear practical limits to cutting rates indefinitely; and in the eurozone at least, the policy may be close to its political limits. The question now is what should take its place. Mr Fink is right to say that the current anomalies in markets are the result of central banks being asked to solve economic problems in the absence of coherent fiscal policies.

不過，無限降息存在明顯的實際限制；至少在歐元區，降息政策在政治上或許已接近極限。目前的問題在於，應該用何種政策來取代降息。芬克表示，央行在缺乏財政政策配合的情況下被要求去解決經濟問題，才導致了當前市場的異常狀況。這話沒錯。

The underlying challenge is how to strengthen stimulus policies and make them more effective. “Nein zu Allem” — as Mario Draghi caricatured Germany’s position — is not an acceptable answer. Opponents of negative rates need to spell out the alternatives.

根本挑戰在於如何強化刺激政策，讓政策更加有效。“對一切都說不(Nein zu Allem)”——這是馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)對於德國立場的誇張性描述——不是一個令人滿意的答案。負利率政策的反對者需要拿出可以替代它的選項。