全球二線城市商業地產受熱捧 Second tier cities rival capital returns

Last year the high prices demanded of property investors in the world’s “super cities” of London, New York, Tokyo and Paris drove global fund managers towards a second rung of merely excellent cities such as Berlin, Beijing and Seattle.

去年，倫敦、紐約、東京和巴黎這樣的世界“超一線城市”房產投資商索取的高價把全球基金經理趕到了柏林、北京、西雅圖等一般優秀的二線城市。

Commercial property investment leapt 65 per cent to $30bn in this group of lower-tier destinations. By contrast total spending in 2015 across the world’s top four super cities fell by 10 per cent to $128bn compared with the previous year, according to latest figures from JLL, the international property agency.

這些二線城市的商業地產投資陡增65%，達到300億美元。相比之下，根據國際房地產機構仲量聯行(JLL)的最新數據，四大超一線城市的總投資較上年減少了10%，降至1280億美元。

Though super cities may command the weight of investment in commercial real estate, they do not necessarily all offer the best returns. Anticipating swings in returns available across the many dozens of less obvious and unfashionable urban destinations is also part of the task faced by an elite group of global fund managers. It is relatively easy to identify a solid core of favoured locations in the US and Europe. Delivering a shopping list of winning locations to property investors has become more challenging in Asia, however, as regional economic uncertainty has risen.

雖然超一線城市在商業地產投資中佔大頭，這些投資並不一定都能獲得最好的回報。對一個精英的全球基金經理羣體來說，在數十個不那麼起眼或者時興的城市中預測回報的起起伏伏，也是任務的一部分。在美國和歐洲，確定一批受青睞的地點相對容易。但是，隨着亞洲經濟不確定性的提高，在亞洲爲地產投資者確定能盈利的地點已經變得更加困難。

Alastair Hughes, chief executive of JLL’s Asia Pacific division, argues that Bangalore, Manila and Shenzhen remain good investment bets. “Each has large, young and fast growing populations,” he says.

仲量聯行亞太區首席執行官阿拉斯泰爾•休斯(Alastair Hughes)認爲，班加羅爾、馬尼拉以及深圳依然是很好的投資對象。“這幾個城市都有着大量快速增長的年輕人口，”他說。

Shenzhen has become China’s Silicon Valley while Manila’s appeal is growing as it experiences the beginnings of an outsourcing boom. For its part, Bangalore has already become a world leader of IT outsourcing.

深圳已經成了中國的硅谷，而馬尼拉的吸引力隨着其迎來外包業務繁榮期而上升。而班加羅爾已經成爲世界IT外包業務的領頭羊。

Europe offers an increasing range of less obvious attractive destinations. Nine of JLL’s dozen favourite spots in Europe are not prime global locations. Aside from Paris and London, Istanbul, Dublin, Edinburgh and Manchester feature in this list. “There is increasing recognition that success is no longer purely about size but involves a capacity to adapt,” concludes the JLL report, which is scheduled to appear on March 15 at the same time as the MIPIM trade show in Cannes.

歐洲不那麼起眼但具有吸引力的城市在不斷增加。仲量聯行最青睞的12個歐洲城市中，有9個都不是全球頂級城市。除了巴黎和倫敦之外，伊斯坦布爾、都柏林、愛丁堡和曼徹斯特都榜上有名。“人們越來越意識到，成功不再僅僅取決於規模大小，還涉及適應能力，”仲量聯行的報告得出結論認爲。該報告配合3月15日在戛納舉行的“MIPIM”房產展銷會發布。

Property fund managers spend much time and expense at this annual assembly of industry leaders on the French Riviera, both aboard yachts and ashore, promoting investment strategies and attempting to grab the attention of the world’s biggest pension, life and sovereign wealth funds.

這個行業領袖齊聚的年度盛會在法國黃金海岸(Riviera)舉行。地產基金經理在遊艇和岸上的活動上投入了大量時間與資金，以促銷投資戰略，試圖吸引全世界最大的養老金、壽險和主權財富基金的注意力。

The running of global funds generates billions of dollars a year in gross fees. The research produced by agents aimed at justifying their strategies to investors provides a useful “map” of the investment world. But it is also often used internally as a “first filter” by fund managers as a stress test on their own sophisticated risk models.

全球基金的管理每年產生數十億美元的專業服務費。地產代理機構爲了向投資者證明其戰略的合理性而發表的研究報告，提供了有關投資世界的有用“地圖”。但是基金管理公司內部也經常把這些研究當成一種“初篩”，對他們自己精密的風險模型進行壓力測試。

A series of sales of commercial property in London, New York, Hong Kong and Tokyo in 2015 indicate the warning lights may already have been blinking “sell” for fund managers who control large portfolios of assets in prime cities for at least a year.

2015年倫敦、紐約、香港和東京一系列商業地產的出售表明，對那些在頂級城市持有大規模資產組合至少一年以上的基金經理來說，“出售”的警報燈可能已經開始閃爍了。

Anthony Myers, Blackstone’s head of real estate in Europe, appeared to be hedging his bets when he said in Paris last month: “For stabilised assets, it’s a good time to be selling … but we’re still here to buy in Europe.” His views count. Blackstone, ranked the world’s biggest real estate fund manager, has $94bn of property assets under management and a purse filled with billions more.

黑石(Blackstone)歐洲房地產主管安東尼•邁爾斯(Anthony Myers)似乎正在多面下注，最近他在巴黎表示：“現在是出售已經穩定下來的資產的好時機……但是，我們還是要在歐洲買入。”他的觀點很重要。作爲世界最大的房地產基金管理公司，黑石管理着940億美元的房地產，還擁有數十億美元的“錢包”。