應對壞賬問題 中國考慮銀行債務打包出售

BEIJing — China is exploring a new way to grapple with its mounting pile of bad corporate debt, though its top central banker sought on Saturday to dispel worries that the plan would simply shift the burden to other parts of the country’s vast economy.

北京——中國正在探索新辦法，以應對不斷增長的企業壞賬。不過，中國央行負責人在週六試圖消除人們的擔憂，即這項計劃只會把負擔轉移到中國巨大的經濟體中的其他部分。

Under the tentative proposal, Chinese officials would allow banks saddled with growing quantities of bad loans to sell that debt to investors, said Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China. The goal is to help alleviate one of the major drags on China’s economy, the world’s second largest after the United States’ and a major driver of global growth.

中國人民銀行行長周小川表示，在這項初步的提議之下，中國官員將允許身負不斷增加的不良貸款的銀行將不良貸款出售給投資者。這一舉措的目標，是幫助緩解拖累中國經濟增長的一個主要問題。中國不僅是僅次於美國的世界第二大經濟體，也是全球增長的重要推動力。

But Mr. Zhou and a deputy central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said they would take steps to make sure the effort did not create the kind of risk-laden financial products that played a major role in the 2008 global financial crisis. The effort would be modest, regulators would monitor it closely, and mom-and-pop investors would be kept out, they said.

周小川和央行副行長潘功勝稱，他們會採取措施，確保這項努力不會產生曾在2008年的全球金融危機中扮演重要角色的那種高風險金融產品。他們表示，這是一項溫和的舉措，監管部門會密切監督它的進行，而且不會讓散戶投資者參與。

“There’s no need to exaggerate,” Mr. Zhou said at a news conference held as part of China’s annual legislative session in Beijing. “There’s not certainty that this would be a very big market.”

“不必誇大，”在北京舉行一年一度的人民代表大會期間，周小川在新聞發佈會上說。“這個市場也不一定是很大的。”

China’s corporate debt has ballooned in recent years during a broader lending-and-spending binge, led by the Chinese government in an attempt to keep the country’s economy humming. China’s total debt now stands at about 2.5 years’ economic output, a level that has raised worries among economists. Much of that is corporate debt, prompting many economists to warn that those loans pose a threat to China’s economic health.

最近幾年，爲了維持經濟快速增長，中國政府主導了一場大規模的借貸消費熱潮，中國的企業債正是在這種背景下大幅增加。如今，中國的總債務額大約相當於兩年半的經濟產出，這樣的借貸規模引起了經濟學家的擔憂。其中有不少是企業債，這促使很多經濟學家發出警告，表示這些貸款會對中國經濟的健康發展構成威脅。

That lending spree has also led to a major surplus of Chinese steel factories, glassworks and other industrial facilities, dragging down China’s economic performance to its slowest rate in 25 years and casting a pall over the broader global outlook.

無節制的借貸也使中國的鋼鐵廠、玻璃廠和其他一些工業廠礦出現大量的產能過剩，由此拉低中國的經濟表現，使增長率降至25年來的最低點，並給更廣泛的全球經濟前景蒙上一層陰影。

On paper, China’s banks have some of the world’s lowest loan default rates. But economists inside and outside the country say many banks — in a practice known as “extend and pretend” — do not force companies to pay up or restructure, putting off the problem. That raises concerns that China’s big banks could have considerable amounts of bad loans on their books.

從表面看，中國銀行業的貸款違約率在全球屬最低之列。但國內外的經濟學家們表示，中國的很多銀行不會強迫企業清償貸款或進行重組，而是將問題擱置延後，這種做法稱爲“債務展期，假裝沒事”。這讓人擔心，中國的大型銀行賬簿上可能已經出現了數額相當可觀的不良貸款。

The program sketched by the officials on Saturday followed reports in recent days that as the economy slows, some Chinese companies failing to pay back loans would be given reprieves because the banks would be allowed to convert that debt into shares of those companies. But the central bank officials did not directly address that proposal. On Thursday, a heavily indebted Chinese shipbuilding company revealed that it would issue equity to creditors instead of repaying $2.17 billion of outstanding loans.

就在官方於週六提出這項計劃幾天前，媒體報道，隨着中國經濟放緩，一些無法償還貸款的企業將能得到暫時的解救，因爲銀行將允許它們把欠債轉換成企業股份。但中央銀行的官員並沒有對這種說法做出直接回應。上週四，一家負債累累的中國造船企業對外披露，它將向債權人發行股票，而非償還140億元人民幣的未償貸款。

Some experts are skeptical that such a program would resolve the problem. “Using shares to pay overdue loans could help banks temporarily shore up their balance sheets, but it could cause greater difficulties down the road,” said Ning Zhu, a finance professor at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance.

一些專家對這項計劃能否解決問題表示懷疑。“用股份償付過期貸款，或許能幫助銀行暫時改善資產負債表，但它可能會在接下來導致更大的困難，”上海交通大學上海高級金融學院金融學教授朱寧說。

Mr. Zhou indicated that under the proposal described on Saturday, the bad debt would be sold to institutional investors rather than being held by the banks. China already allows this practice — known as securitization — so banks and other financial institutions can sell off existing loans, freeing up capital for new business. But the central bankers’ latest comments suggested that the practice was being refined to focus on nonperforming loans.

周小川表示，在週六公佈的那項提議之下，不良貸款將被賣給機構投資者，而非由銀行繼續持有。中國之前就已經允許採取這種稱爲“證券化”的舉措，讓銀行等金融機構得以出售現存貸款，釋放資金開展新業務。但央行正副行長的最新言論表明，這項舉措只是針對未履約貸款。

“Banks are positive about securitization,” Mr. Zhou said. “If some assets can be packaged and sold off, they can adjust their balance sheets.” He said that because the loans sold off would be troubled, they would fetch prices below their face value.

“銀行有積極性要做證券化，”周小川說。“如果把一部分資產能夠打包賣出去的話，可以調整他的資產負債表。”他表示，因爲售出的是有問題的貸款，所以定價會低於資產的名義價格。

Mr. Zhou and Mr. Pan stressed that the program would be modest at first and absorb lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. China’s new debt products would be kept simple, Mr. Pan said.

周小川和潘功勝強調，這個項目一開始會比較謹慎，而且會吸取2008年金融危機的一些教訓。潘功勝表示，他們會要求這種新債務產品在設計上簡單明瞭。

“This is just a pilot,” Mr. Pan said. “We’ve selected a small number of major financial institutions with quite high management standards to develop trials, and the credit involved in the initial trials is not large.”

“它只是試點，”潘功勝說。“我們挑選了少數管理水平比較高的大型金融機構開展試點，而且初期試點的額度也不大。”

Shang Fulin, the head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at a separate news conference on Saturday that the trial effort to sell off bad debt was needed to ensure that more bank loans flowed into supporting the real economy, rather than turning over old loans.

中國銀監會主席尚福林在週六舉行的另一場新聞發佈會上表示，出售不良貸款的措施是必要的，它可以確保銀行有更多資金貸款給企業，支持實體經濟發展，而非用來填補舊賬。

“Our total volume of loans is quite adequate, but the speed of turnover of loans has been falling year after year,” Mr. Shang said.

“我們現在貸款的總量是比較充裕的，但是貸款的週轉速度在逐年下降，”尚福林說。