年石油價格的變化預測

There are two divergent views of what is happening to the oil price ithin the industry and among serious investors. 2016 may help us to see which is correct.

當前油價正在發生什麼變化？在業內人士和嚴肅的投資者中間，對這個問題有兩種不同的看法。2016年油價走勢或許有助我們看清哪種觀點是正確的。

The first view is that the price is inherently cyclical. What has come down must go back up again and the deeper the trough the higher the next mountain.

第一種看法是，油價本質上具有周期性。下跌之後必然會回升。這道波谷越深，下一個山峯就越高。

The alternative analysis is that the shift we have seen over the past three years is the beginning of a long-term structural shift which will see energy prices materially lower in real terms in the next half century than in the last. Those who take this view believe, to put it very simply, that the likely growth in supply is stronger than the growth in demand.

另一種看法是，油價在過去三年中的變動，是長期結構性變化的開始，預示着下一個50年裏，能源價格按實際值計算將顯著低於上一個50年。簡單地說，持這種看法的人認爲，供給的增長潛力超過需求增長。

The overwhelming weight of the coverage of the oil market by analysts and commentators concentrates on the supply side and the volumes being produced and exported from Saudi Arabia or elsewhere. Supply is important but costs matter more.

分析師和評論員們對石油市場的解讀着重於供應端，以及沙特或其他地方的產量和出口量。供給很重要，但成本更重要。

Some people remain attached to a theory that can be described as resource scarcity. At its heart this theory suggests that resource development follows a linear pattern in which low-cost resources are developed first, meaning that most if not all future development must be more costly. Unfortunately the history of the industry does not support this view. If anything the experience of the past few decades suggests that the opposite is true.

有些人仍堅持一種可稱爲“資源稀缺”的理論。該理論的核心是，資源開發遵循線性模式，低成本的資源最先被開發，也就是說，未來大部分乃至全部開發活動的成本一定會更高。遺憾的是，行業發展歷史並不支持這一觀點。過去幾十年的經驗表明，情況正相反。

The cyclical theory depends on a dearth of new investment creating a supply crunch in two, three or five years. A lot of projects are being postponed but postponement is no more than a signal to project managers to find a way of cutting costs. Many are doing exactly that.

週期性理論的依據是，新投資不足將導致兩三年或五年後出現供應緊張。大量的項目已被延遲，但這對於項目經理而言，不過是要想辦法削減成本的一種信號。許多項目經理目前就在這麼做。

I can well imagine that in 2016 the oil price will bounce back from its current sub $40 level. The Saudis may try to cut production, there could be more conflict in Iraq, terrorists could attack some of the prize targets such as the oil terminals at Ras Tanura and Abqaiq. Anything is possible, something is likely. But the question is how far the bounce will go.

可以想象，2016年油價將從當前不到40美元的水平上反彈。沙特或許會嘗試減產，伊拉克可能會爆發更多衝突，恐怖主義分子可能會攻擊一些重要目標，比如沙特拉斯坦努拉和阿巴奇克的石油終端。一切皆有可能，有些事情發生的可能性更大一些。但問題在於，油價反彈的幅度將有多大？

If the bounce is minimal and transitory it will be clear that the structural shift is under way. I hope the companies which are over invested in expensive projects and countries still overwhelmingly dependent on oil and gas revenues are ready.

如果反彈幅度小、時間短，那麼顯然結構性變化已經開始了。我希望，過多投資於大成本項目的公司以及仍然高度依賴於油氣收入的國家對此做好了準備。