中國鋼企遭遇大面積虧損 Losses mount in China's overcrowded steel sector
China's biggest 101 steel companies, which helped fuel the country’s industrial revolution and housing frenzy, lost a combined Rmb72bn ($11bn) in the first 10 months of 2015, or more than double the profits garnered last year.
2015年頭10個月，中國最大的101家鋼鐵企業總共虧損720億元人民幣（合110億美元），超過去年所獲利潤的兩倍。這些鋼鐵企業曾幫助點燃了中國的工業革命和樓市狂潮。
The reversal in fortunes highlights the unwinding of rapacious demand for basic materials — in just two years the country produced more cement than the US did in the entire 20th century — as economic growth slows.
鋼企命運的逆轉凸顯出，隨着經濟增長放緩，中國對基本材料的瘋狂需求正逐漸退潮。此前，在僅僅兩年內，中國生產的水泥就超過了美國在整個20世紀的產量。
The resulting brake on demand is sending tremors across the globe, from resource-rich Brazil and Australia through to UK steelmakers.
從資源豐富的巴西和澳大利亞，到英國的鍊鋼廠，中國行情變化導致的需求停滯發出的衝擊波正在傳遍全球。
Beijing’s efforts to force domestic consolidation have largely failed, leaving a swathe of industries churning out steel, cement and glass at a loss and feeding deflation. It is also piling up fresh debts: Sinosteel, China’s largest state-owned steel trader, defaulted on a bond repayment due in October.
中國政府試圖在國內強制開展整合的努力在很大程度上未能成功，只留下一羣以虧損價格大量生產鋼鐵、水泥和玻璃的產業，導致通縮愈演愈烈。這種局面還導致新的債務不斷積累：中國最大的國有鋼材交易商中鋼集團(Sinosteel)就曾違約一筆本該10月份償還的債券。
China’s property sector, the biggest source of steel demand, is still struggling. Chinese home prices and sales volumes recently began rising following more than a year of declines, but construction activity continues to fall as developers wait for the market to digest the overhang of unsold homes.
中國的房地產業是鋼材需求的最大源頭，目前該行業仍在掙扎之中。最近，在超過一年的下滑之後，中國的房價和銷售量已開始上升，不過建設活動依然在下滑，原因是開發商在等待市場消化過高的未出售住房。
“The need for social stability (is) the biggest stepping stone for a quick solution to the capacity overhang. Employment associated with steel mills is large enough that staff layoffs could spark social unrest,” HSBC analysts led by Chris Chen wrote in a note on Friday.
週五，以Chris Chen爲首的匯豐銀行(HSBC)分析師在一份報告中寫道：“對社會穩定的需要（是）快速解決產能過剩問題的最大絆腳石。與鍊鋼廠相關的就業人員規模太大，裁員可能會引發社會動盪。”
“We also expect a prolonged stalemate between government-supported loss-making (state-owned) mills and the relatively profitable private mills — which however, lack favourable support.”
“我們還預計，在政府支持的虧損（國有）鋼廠和盈利能力相對較強（卻缺乏適當支持）的民營鋼廠之間的僵局會長期存在。”
China has shuttered 50m tonnes of steel manufacturing capacity this year, just 4 per cent of its total 1.14bn tonnes of capacity, according to HSBC. The bank calculates China would need to cut an additional 120m to 160m tonnes of capacity next year for the industry-wide utilisation rate to reach a “relatively healthy” level of 80 per cent.
根據匯豐銀行的數據，今年中國已關停5000萬噸鍊鋼產能，只佔其總計11.4億噸產能的4%。根據該行計算，中國明年需要再削減1.2億噸至1.6億噸產能，才能令全行業產能利用率達到80%這個“相對健康”的水平
Of the 101 largest steel companies, 48 suffered net losses in the first 10 months of the year. For the full group, combined losses totalled Rmb39bn, according to unreleased China Iron and Steel Association figures obtained by Economic Information Daily, a newspaper owned by the official Xinhua news agency. Excluding earnings from non-core business, combined losses were Rmb72bn.
在所有101家最大鋼企中，48家在今年頭10個月遭遇淨虧損。根據中國官方新華社旗下的《經濟參考報》(Economic Information Daily)所獲的中國鋼鐵工業協會(China Iron and Steel Association)未公開數據，所有這些企業的總虧損總計達390億元人民幣。排除來自非核心業務的盈利，總虧損達720億元人民幣。
Steel market conditions are deteriorating. Core-business losses in October alone were Rmb15bn, 28 per cent larger than in September, according to the paper. China’s official purchasing manager’s index for the steel sector fell to 37 in November, down 5.2 points from October. An reading of below 50 signals contraction.
鋼鐵市場的狀況正在惡化。根據該報的說法，僅10月份的核心業務虧損就達150億元人民幣，比9月份高了28%。11月份中國官方鋼鐵部門採購經理人指數(PMI)滑落至37，比10月份低了5.2,。該讀數低於50，表示相關產業處於收縮之中。
After growing at an average rate of 15 per cent between 2000 and 2013, CISA forecasts that Chinese steel production has already peaked and will fall 3 per cent next year. However, iron ore producers such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale, who ploughed billions of dollars into expanding production over the past decade, are still clinging to more optimistic forecasts for Chinese production.
中國鋼鐵工業協會預計，在2000年至2013年期間出現15%的平均增長率之後，中國鋼鐵產量已經見頂，明年將下跌3%。然而，必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和淡水河谷(Vale)等鐵礦石生產商仍堅持對中國鋼鐵生產的更樂觀預期。過去十年間，這三家生產商曾投入數十億美元擴張產能。
