耶倫再度釋放加息信號 Yellen signals US economy is strong enough for a rate rise
The US economy had “recovered substantially” from the post-crisis recession and was set for further growth and firmer inflation, Janet Yellen said, as she laid the groundwork for the first upward move in official interest rates since 2006.
珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)稱，美國經濟已經從後危機時代的衰退“大幅復甦”，並正在趨向進一步增長和更堅實的通脹。她爲自2006年以來首次上調官方利率鋪平了道路。
A rate rise would testify to the progress the US has made in shrugging off the legacy of the crash, the Fed chair said, adding there were risks in waiting too long to start normalising policy.
這位美聯儲(Fed)主席稱，加息將證明美國在擺脫金融危機遺留問題上取得的進展，她補充稱，等待太久才啓動政策正常化是有風險的。
Dangers from abroad had also diminished since September, when the Fed held fire on rates citing risks from China and financial markets.
自9月美聯儲因中國及金融市場風險而維持利率不變以來，海外風險也已經降低。
An upward move widely expected on December 16 at the Fed’s next meeting would put the US on a sharply divergent course from many other advanced nations. In the euro area, the European Central Bank is expected to loosen policy today as it attempts to lift inflation and nurture the region’s recovery.
人們普遍預期美聯儲將在12月16日下次會議上宣佈的加息，將使美國走上與其他很多發達國家截然不同的道路。在歐元區，爲了推升通脹，扶持該地區經濟復甦，歐洲央行(ECB)今日預計將放鬆政策。
The ECB is likely to extend and expand its programme of quantitative easing, and could make a further cut to its deposit rate. However, German-led opposition within the bank could limit the extent of further action, potentially disappointing markets.
歐洲央行很可能會延長並擴大其量化寬鬆計劃，並可能會進一步下調存款利率。然而，歐洲央行內部以德國爲首的反對方可能會限制進一步舉措的力度，這可能會令市場失望。
Alluding to the key test the Fed has set before tightening monetary policy, Ms Yellen said her confidence in the inflation outlook had been “bolstered” by recent strength in the jobs market, adding that there had been welcome signs of a pick-up in wage growth.
耶倫提及美聯儲設定的在收緊貨幣政策前的關鍵測試，稱就業市場近期的強勁表現“支撐”了她對通脹前景的信心，並補充稱，工資增長也出現了可喜的上升跡象。
The Federal Open Market Committee gathers in two weeks’ time for a much anticipated rate-setting meeting, with financial markets now primed for a possible increase in official short-term interest rates from current near-zero levels. In its last statement, the central bank formally put the world on notice that a move was possible in December.
聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)兩週後將召開萬衆期待的利率制定會議，金融市場眼下已經爲官方短期利率可能從目前接近於零的水平有所上調做好了準備。在該委員會上次聲明中，美聯儲正式提醒了全世界其可能在12月加息。
“The US economy has recovered substantially since the Great Recession,” said Ms Yellen in Washington yesterday.
“自大衰退以來，美國經濟已經大幅復甦，”耶倫昨天在華盛頓表示。
Even if the Fed raises rates, Ms Yellen has been at pains to stress that increases will be incremental. In her speech she said the Fed would be cautious in tightening policy because the interest rate compatible with stable economic conditions remains historically low and may rise only gradually.
即使美聯儲上調利率，耶倫也在極力強調加息將會是漸進的。她在講話中稱，美聯儲將會謹慎地收緊政策，因爲與穩定的經濟狀況相符的利率水平仍然處於歷史低位，只能逐漸上調。
The Fed’s last set of projections suggested increases at a pace of about 100 basis points a year in 2016 and 2017, which would still be quicker than the speed forecast by financial markets.
美聯儲上一次預測似乎表明，2016年和2017年將以每年100個基點左右的幅度加息，這仍然快於金融市場的預期。
Ms Yellen said the US economy was still not at full employment in her view — a verdict that contrasts with that of some of her more bullish colleagues.
耶倫稱，在她看來美國經濟仍然沒有實現充分就業——這與她的一些更爲樂觀的同事的結論形成對比。
But she warned that if the Fed waits too long to move it could end up getting behind the curve and then being forced to rise sharply. “Holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability,” she added.
但是她警告稱，如果美聯儲爲加息等待太久，就有可能落後於曲線、然後被迫大幅加息。“將聯邦利率保持在現有水平上太久，還可能會鼓勵過度冒險，從而破壞金融穩定，”她補充稱。
