中國政府還會救市嗎 Crash poses serious threat to Beijing’s credibility

After China’s stock market experienced its second worst day yesterday, all eyes are on Beijing, where the government faces a stark dilemma and a serious challenge to its credibility.

中國股市昨日出現史上第二糟糕的單日跌幅之後，各方都把目光投向北京，中國政府面臨一個嚴峻的兩難問題，其公信力也面臨嚴重挑戰。

The unprecedented intervention measures already rolled out in the past month include a ban on short selling and initial public offerings, forced purchases of shares by state-owned investors, a ban on sales by leading shareholders and direct credit support from the central bank.

過去一個月已經推出的前所未有的干預措施包括：禁止賣空和首次公開發行(IPO)，強迫國有投資者買入股票，禁止大股東減持股份，以及由中國央行提供直接信貸支持。

For three consecutive weeks, China’s benchmark index has rallied from the low it hit in early July, when the government unveiled most of these measures following a collapse of more than 30 per cent in less than a month.

在連續三週時間裏，中國基準股指從7月初觸及的低位反彈。上述多數救市措施是在7月上旬出爐的，此前中國股市在不到一個月裏下滑逾30%。

After a mediocre performance for most of yesterday, the sell-off resumed in earnest in late trading, taking the Shanghai Composite Index from a drop of about 3 per cent at 2pm to close an hour later down 8.5 per cent.

昨日大部分時間裏股市表現平平，但尾盤出現大舉拋售，使上證綜指(Shanghai Composite Index)的當日跌幅從下午2時的3%左右擴大至一小時後收盤時的8.5%。

As of yesterday evening there was no word from the authorities on what they planned to do next, and officials at the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission refused to answer any questions when contacted by the Financial Times.

截至昨晚，當局沒有表示下一步會做什麼。英國《金融時報》聯繫的央行和中國證券監督管理委員會(CSRC)官員拒絕回答任何問題。

“If [the government] does nothing, then all its previous efforts will have been wasted but if they continue with the rescue efforts, then the hole will get bigger and bigger,” said Zhu Ning, deputy dean at Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance. “We hope the regulators will respect the market and the rules of the market.”

“如果（政府）什麼都不做，那麼之前的所有努力都將付諸東流，但如果他們繼續進行救市努力，那麼這個洞會變得越來越大，”上海高級金融學院(Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance)副院長朱寧表示。“我們希望監管者尊重市場和市場規則。”

A big problem for the government is that its earlier disrespect for market rules, and the subsequent rally, have left investors expecting ever greater intervention from the authorities every time the index swoons. “Today everyone is just looking to the actions of policymakers, mainly to see if there will be further government rescue funds coming into the market,” said Ye Tan, a Shanghai-based stock market commentator.

對政府來說，一個很大的問題是，之前對市場規則的不尊重以及隨後的反彈，已經讓投資者期待每次指數下挫都會促使當局出臺力度越來越大的干預行動。“如今大家都只是看着政策制定者的行動，主要是看有沒有更多政府救市資金進入市場，”上海的股市評論員葉檀表示。

In China, stocks are only allowed to fall or rise by a maximum of 10 per cent on any given day before they are automatically temporarily suspended from trading.

在中國，股票每日只可上漲或下跌10%，觸及這個單日漲跌上限就會自動暫停交易。

Yesterday, nearly 1,800 stocks — more than 60 per cent of all stocks listed on the main boards in Shanghai and Shenzhen — fell by the daily limit of 10 per cent and were suspended, suggesting the overall market collapse would have been much worse than 8.5 per cent if it were not for this rule.

昨日，近1800只股票（佔滬深股市主板全部股票的60%以上）跌停，似乎表明如果沒有單日漲跌限制，大盤的暴跌會厲害得多。

Another problem facing the Chinese authorities is the worrying absence of any obvious trigger for yesterday’s rout.

中國當局面對的另一個問題是，昨日的暴跌似乎是在沒有明顯觸發因素的情況下發生的，這一點令人擔憂。

Possible culprits suggested by Chinese analysts ranged from the rising price of piglets to expectations that the US Federal Reserve would soon raise interest rates.

中國分析師們提出各種可能性，從豬仔漲價，到市場預期美聯儲(Federal Reserve)不久將加息。

China’s consumer price index is heavily weighted towards food staples such as pork, and if inflation were to take off it would restrict the central bank’s ability to continue loosening monetary policy to prop up equity prices and the broader economy.

在中國的居民消費價格指數(CPI)中，豬肉等主食佔有較大比重。如果通脹上揚，那將限制中國央行繼續放鬆貨幣政策、以支撐股價和整體經濟的能力。

Yesterday’s stock market fall will increase pressure on the ruling Communist party to cut interest rates further and reduce the amount banks must hold in reserves, especially as most indicators show gross domestic product growth continues to decelerate.

昨日股市下跌將給執政的共產黨帶來更大壓力，要求其進一步降低利率和銀行的存款準備金率，尤其是因爲大部分指標顯示國內生產總值(GDP)增長繼續減速。

China grew 7.4 per cent last year, its slowest pace in 24 years, and Beijing will struggle to hit its full-year growth target of “around 7 per cent” this year after the economy grew by exactly 7 per cent in each of the first two quarters.

中國經濟去年增長7.4%，這是24年來最慢的增速。今年北京方面將竭盡全力達到“7%左右”的全年增長目標，此前兩個季度的同比增長都恰好達到7%。

A growing number of prominent officials and former officials are calling for further action to boost growth, which has been eroded by a bursting real estate bubble and falling corporate profits.

越來越多的知名官員和前任官員呼籲採取進一步行動刺激經濟增長，近來中國經濟增長受到房地產泡沫破裂和企業盈利下降的拖累。

Zhu Baoliang, director of the economic forecast department of the State Information Centre, a government research agency, told Reuters the stock market crash was having a deep impact on the real economy and that the authorities had to cut interest rates and loosen monetary policy further.

政府研究機構——國家信息中心(State Information Centre)經濟預測部主任祝寶良對路透社(Reuters)表示，股市暴跌正對實體經濟產生深刻影響，當局不得不進一步降息和放鬆貨幣政策。

Official figures released yesterday showed industrial corporate profits in China fell 0.7 per cent in the first half of the year, with profits falling in June from a year earlier for the first time in three months. Apart from its desperate efforts to prop up the equity market, many analysts complain the government’s credibility has been undermined by overly positive forecasts from senior officials regarding China’s economy.

昨日發佈的官方數據顯示，今年上半年中國工業企業利潤同比下降0.7%，其中6月份的利潤同比下降是三個月來頭一回。除了拼命撐起股市的努力外，很多分析師抱怨稱，高級官員對中國經濟過於樂觀的預測削弱了政府的公信力。