中國和希臘金融大戲的啓示 Complacency and incrementalism are traps to avoid
Against a backdrop of slow and diminishing growth forecasts, recent months and especially recent weeks have seen an extraordinary level of financial drama. While not
在增長預期下降並且越來越低的背景下，近幾個月（尤其是近幾周）上演了一場規模宏大的“金融大戲”。儘管並未發酵成2008年那樣的系統性全球危機，也不能與20世紀90年代末那段存在巨大不確定性的時期——亞洲、俄羅斯和巴西都陷入危機，還有長期資本管理公司所引發的危機——相提並論，但世界各地的市場狀況似乎正在挫傷政治抱負。
rising to the level of the systemic global crisis of 2008, or the period of great uncertainty in the late 1990s around the Asia-Russia-Brazil-Long-Term Capital Management crises, markets everywhere seem to be thwarting political aspirations.
希臘與歐元區的關係已經演變成了一場持續數月、短期內不太可能結束的金融肥皂劇。對德國在歐洲主導地位的擔憂達到了七十年來最強烈的程度。
Greece’s relationship with the euro area has been a financial soap opera for months, and it is one that is unlikely to end anytime soon. Concerns about German dominance of Europe are now more salient than they have been at any time in the past 70 years.
中國的股市如過山車般跌宕起伏，儘管——或許也可以說正是由於——政府實施了規模非常大（即使對中國來說）的干預。同時，中國政府實現經濟快速增長的能力——其合法性越來越依賴於這一點——存在很大疑問。
China’s stock market has been a rollercoaster despite — or perhaps because of — a remarkable (even for China) level of government involvement. And the ability of the Chinese government to deliver the rapid growth on which its legitimacy increasingly depends is very much open to question.
在美國，由於醫療費用大幅削減，聯邦政府的財政狀況可以說是多年以來最健康的，然而其海外領地波多黎各卻面臨着美國曆史上最大規模的市政債違約。
In the US, while the fiscal picture at the federal level appears healthier than it has in a long time, thanks to a marked slowdown in healthcare costs, Puerto Rico is on the brink of the largest municipal bond default in American history.
托爾斯泰(Tolstoy)曾說：“幸福的家庭都是相似的，不幸的家庭各有各的不幸”。同樣地，上述問題也各有各的成因。然而，對於金融政策制定者及其背後的政治家來說，可以從這一系列危機中吸取幾點共同的教訓。其中有兩點尤爲重要。
Tolstoy observed that all happy families are alike but each unhappy family is miserable in its own way. In the same way, each of these situations is driven by its own dynamics. But their concatenation does warrant reflection on some common lessons for financial policymakers and their political masters. Two stand out.
首先，經濟法則像自然法則一樣，存在且不受政治意志的支配。金融危機、大衰退以及不平等程度的急劇上升，都促使人們從負面的角度對不受約束的自由市場進行重新審視。這情有可原。然而，不能據此認爲政府可以依靠指令使經濟按自己意願運行。誠然，希臘問題與其失敗的經濟政策有關。希臘的財政緊縮幅度超過了其GDP的20%，導致了其經濟的蕭條。然而，對於一個無法自由地採取寬鬆的貨幣政策，或者實現貨幣貶值的經濟體來說，這並不足爲奇。即使政策制定者想要改變局勢，他們也無能爲力。
First, there are economic laws like there are physical laws and, as with physical laws, economic laws do not yield to political will. The financial crisis, the great recession and sharp increases in inequality have all properly led to a negative reassessment of the functionality of unfettered free markets. It does not follow, however, that governments can bring about economic outcomes they prefer by fiat. Greece’s problems, of course, relate to the failings of Greek economic policy. But it should come as no surprise that a fiscal contraction in excess of 20 per cent of gross domestic product in an economy that does not have the freedom to loosen monetary policy or to de-value its 挀甀爀爀攀渀挀礀 leads to depression, even if policymakers wish otherwise.
有句話說得好，你可能欺騙所有人一時，也可能欺騙一些人一世，卻不可能欺騙所有人一世。同理，市場可能會失去效率，導致價格與基本價值背離，市場也可能有時會受制於政府操縱。然而，只有不明智的政府纔會以爲它能夠始終把投機性的價格維持在政治適宜的水平上。中國政府可能很快就會發現這一點。
Famously, while you can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time, you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. In the same way, markets may well be inefficient and diverge from fundamental value, and they may well be subject to government manipulation for significant intervals, but it is a foolish government that supposes it can indefinitely maintain speculative prices at politically convenient levels, as the Chinese authorities may soon discover.
同樣的，當無法控制債務違約時，人們就傾向於假定它不會發生。2010年歐洲堅稱希臘的債務永遠不可能重組。這個明顯的謬誤帶來了危險的後果——使債權人變得自滿，讓債務人積累了鉅額的債務，導致後者失去了進行積極改革的動力。
Likewise, if a default cannot be managed, it is tempting to assume that it cannot occur. This is an obvious fallacy demonstrated most recently by European insistence in 2010 that Greek debt would never be restructured. It dangerously invites complacency on the part of creditors and leaves debtors with such large overhangs that they have little motivation to carry out constructive reform.
其次，根本性的失衡和問題需要根本性的解決方案。在所有領域，採取漸進式的政策制定方法都極具誘惑力。漸進主義在政治上更溫和；它在這個不確定的世界爲未來保留了靈活性；它通常較少需要承認以往的錯誤；它看起來更爲謹慎。然而，對於甘願屈服於漸進主義誘惑的人來說，美國在越南的經歷值得他們警醒。每一步，政策制定者所做的都足以避免災難的降臨，但都不足以讓人們看到成功解決問題的前景——直到直升機從西貢大使館離開，標誌着美國的政策以失敗告終。
