歐元失敗就是默克爾失敗

The breakdown of negotiations on Greece has come as a shock. Berlin and other European capitals look in disbelief at the Greek government’s resolve to inflict huge economic and financial damage on its own country and its citizens.

希臘債務談判破裂出人意料。德國以及歐洲其他國家目瞪口呆地看着希臘政府鐵了心要讓自己的國家及公民承受巨大的經濟和金融損失。

But Greece will not be the only loser. The stakes for the German government are high, both domestically and internationally. Yet Berlin has a rare window to use the present Greek tragedy to push for the implementation of urgently needed reforms, thereby making the euro sustainable and giving European integration again a stronger legitimacy.

但是希臘不會是唯一的輸家。這件事對德國政府也是利益攸關，無論是在國內還是國際上。不過，德國政府也擁有一次難得一見的機會——利用眼下的希臘悲劇來推動實施亟需的改革，從而使歐元可存續並再次賦予歐洲一體化更堅實的合法性。

Across Europe financial market risks are likely to be tremendous in the coming days and weeks. The most immediate challenge for eurozone governments is damage control. The risks from contagion have repeatedly been downplayed. But no one can reasonably predict whether and how the crisis will spill over from Greece.

在未來數天至數週內，歐洲各地金融市場的風險很可能攀升至驚人水平。歐元區各國政府面臨的最直接的挑戰是損害控制。危機蔓延的風險一再被低估。但是，沒人能夠有理有據地預測出這場危機是否會從希臘蔓延至其他國家，如果是的話以何種方式。

Many eurozone economies are still vulnerable. Italy’s economy has shrunk 10 per cent since 2008, while sovereign debt has increased to about 135 per cent of gross domestic product.

很多歐元區經濟體目前仍然脆弱。2008年至今，意大利的經濟已縮水10%，而其主權債務與國內生產總值(GDP)之比已上升至約135%。

The European Central Bank had to intervene in July 2012 to promise to do “whatever it takes” in order to protect the integrity of the eurozone and prevent a sovereign default of Italy and others. The most likely scenario for the immediate future is that Europe’s politicians will again hide behind the ECB, hoping that it will do the heavy lifting to prevent market turmoil and stabilise the eurozone economy.

2012年7月，歐洲央行(ECB)不得不出手干預，承諾將“不惜一切代價”保護歐元區完整性、防止意大利等國出現主權債務違約。在不久的將來最可能出現的局面是，歐洲政客再次躲在歐洲央行背後，希望該行挑起防止市場動盪和穩定歐元區經濟的重擔。

But what is at stake is not only economic and financial stability. The long-term political damage could be devastating, in particular for the German government. The blame game is heating up about not only who is responsible for the Greek tragedy but why the eurozone failed to get its act together over the past five years and end the crisis. This is a game Berlin and Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, can hardly win. As the strongest economic and political member of the eurozone, Europe and the world have been looking to Berlin to solve the crisis and to reform Europe.

但是，利益攸關的不僅僅是歐元區的經濟和金融穩定。長遠的政治損害可能是毀滅性的，特別是對德國政府而言。不僅就誰應對希臘悲劇負責，還有歐元區過去5年爲何沒能團結一心，各國的相互指責日益升溫。在這裏德國政府以及德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)難逃其咎。德國是歐元區經濟和政治上最爲強的成員國，歐洲以及全世界一直寄望於德國政府，希望它能解決這場危機並給歐洲帶來變革。

Sure, Ms Merkel may have done the right thing in the negotiations trying hard to broker a deal and making significant concessions to the Greek government. Short of capitulating, she had no chance of succeeding with this Greek government. But this will be no more than a footnote in history.

當然，默克爾在談判中或許做得不錯——極力促成協議、對希臘政府作出重大讓步。在這屆希臘政府面前，不舉白旗的她沒有成功的可能。但是，這將僅僅是歷史中的一處腳註而已。

What is at stake for the German government is no less than its credibility, both at home and internationally. It promised its citizens a more stable Europe in exchange for financial help. It promised them to not accept any haircut on its loans, a promise it now has to renege on. Ms Merkel’s declaration that “Europe fails, if the euro fails” is correct, but it might come to haunt her and shape her legacy as chancellor. Germany’s many critics now feel vindicated. This feeling would be even stronger if Greece left the euro and returned to its national currency.

對德國政府而言，不誇張地說，這件事關乎其可信度，無論是在國內還是國際上。德國政府曾向其公民承諾，金融援助將換來一個更穩定的歐洲。它曾向公民承諾不會接受對其貸款進行任何減記，而如今它卻不得不食言。默克爾宣稱“歐元失敗，就是歐洲失敗”，這話沒錯，但這句話可能會一直困擾她並決定她作爲德國總理的“遺產”。德國很多批評人士如今感覺“沉冤昭雪”了。如果希臘退出歐元區並改用回本國貨幣的話，這種感覺還會更加強烈。

Still Berlin has a chance to turn the tables and transform the Greek disaster into an instrument to push for much needed reforms of Europe, and hence a stronger eurozone. The most important policy decisions over the past decade were taken under duress and in times of crisis. Governments and central banks stabilised global markets through their joint declaration at the G20 meeting in New York in 2008. The decision to pursue the European banking union was made at the height of the European crisis in June 2012.

不過，柏林仍有機會扭轉局面，把希臘災難轉化爲一把利器，推動歐洲進行其所亟需的改革，從而讓歐元區更強。過去10年中最爲重要的政策決定都是在危機關頭被迫做出的。2008年，多國政府和央行在紐約二十國集團(G20)峯會上發表的聯合聲明，穩定了全球市場。成立“歐洲銀行業聯盟”(European Banking Union)的決定則是在2012年6月，歐債危機最危急的時刻做出的。

The so-called five presidents’ report from the heads of the main European institutions, released last week, contains many of these elements. This includes a fiscal union, with credible and binding rules, and insolvency mechanism for states and a joint fiscal capacity. This would not only provide protection for individual countries, but also smooth economic fluctuations and allow countries to reap the full benefits of the common currency for euro area members and of the single market for all EU countries. Such reforms will require changes to the EU treaties. This would allow Germany to also look beyond the eurozone to the concerns of the UK, which are widely shared in Berlin.

上週公佈的由歐洲五大主要機構領袖所作的所謂“五總管報告”(five presidents’ report)，包含了其中很多元素，比如在可信的約束性規則下建立財政聯盟，推行國家破產機制，以及打造聯合財政能力。這不僅將爲單個國家提供保護，還將抹平經濟波動，讓歐元區成員國充分享受到使用共同貨幣的好處，讓所有歐盟成員國充分享受單一市場的好處。這類改革將需要修改歐盟條約。這將讓德國能夠將目光投向歐元區以外，也關注英國擔心的事情（有很多與德國的擔憂重合）。

Berlin should think beyond short-term damage control and push its European partners to commit jointly to much-needed reforms of EU institutional architecture. This should include a stronger fiscal union, capital market union and treaty change also to avoid a British departure from the EU, the so-called Brexit, which would be an even greater tragedy for Europe than the Greek crisis.

德國政府應該不把思維侷限於短期的損害控制問題，而應推動其歐洲夥伴國共同致力於對歐盟制度架構進行亟需的改革。其中應包括加強財政聯盟、建立資本市場聯盟、修改歐盟條約，這也是爲了避免英國脫離歐盟，即發生所謂的“英國退歐”(Brexit)，這件事一旦發生，對歐洲來說將是一場甚至比希臘危機更加嚴重的悲劇。

This may be the only chance for the German government to protect both its credibility and legacy in Europe.

眼下或許是德國政府維護其在歐洲的可信度以及“遺產”的唯一機會。

The writer is president of DIW Berlin, a think-tank

本文作者爲智庫德國經濟研究所(DIW Berlin)所長