油價暴跌延續銀行業噩夢

The world’s big banks would like to draw a line under their recent troubles.

全球的大銀行肯定希望它們近來遇到的麻煩能到此爲止。

The losses from the financial crisis, the costs of regulatory change and the fines from mis-selling and market manipulation scandals appear largely in the past.

過去一段時間裏，我們頻頻看到它們因金融危機而蒙受損失，因監管改革而平添成本，因不當銷售和市場操縱醜聞而被處以罰款。

For once, another sector is suffering a series of blows. Within a matter of months, the falling oil price has wiped as much as 25 per cent off the market values of the oil majors. But might the bankers be smiling too soon? Could the oil market turmoil become the banks’ next nightmare?

現在，另一個行業正破天荒地承受着一系列打擊。短短几個月內，不斷下跌的石油價格已將石油巨頭的市值抹去最多25%。不過，銀行家們是否笑得太早了？石油市場的動盪是否會成爲銀行業的下一個噩夢？

Last month, there was a hint of what might be around the corner, when it emerged that Wells Fargo and Barclays had exposure to big potential losses on an oil loan — specifically, $850m of funding granted earlier in the year to back the merger of US oil groups Sabine and Forest.

上個月出了一件事，預示着接下來可能會發生什麼。當時，有消息稱，富國銀行(Wells Fargo)和巴克萊(Barclays)有可能因一筆石油貸款而蒙受重大損失——具體來說，就是今年早些時候答應發放的一筆8.5億美元的資金，用來爲兩家美國石油企業Sabine與Forest合併提供融資。

Attempts to syndicate the loan had failed amid a falling oil price. The banks, which led the fundraising, were left holding mark-to-market losses estimated at as much as 40 per cent.

在油價不斷下滑的情況下，組建銀團來安排這筆貸款的嘗試失敗了。這兩家牽頭提供融資的銀行，只能獨自承擔按市值計價的虧損，虧損率估計高達40%。

Since then, the oil price collapse has only worsened. Last week, Brent crude hit a new five-year low of barely $60. That is nearly 50 per cent down on its summertime peak. The slight rally on Monday — triggered by the closure of two Libyan terminals — reversed by the end of the day.

自那之後，油價下跌的情況越來越糟。上週，布倫特(Brent)原油價格創下五年新低，也就每桶60美元多一點。這個價格較今夏的峯值低將近50%。週一，利比亞兩個原油碼頭關閉引發油價輕微反彈，但這波反彈到當日收盤時已被逆轉。

The trend is great news for consumers. And the big losers are equally obvious — namely, the oil majors. Less clear, but potentially more noxious, is the impact on the banks that have supported the industry’s breakneck expansion over the past few years.

油價的下滑趨勢對消費者來說是個好消息，而大輸家也是明擺着的——就是那些石油巨頭。不那麼明顯但可能受害更深的輸家，是那些支撐石油業在過去幾年實現驚人擴張的銀行。

That Sabine-Forest financing was just one of many. Oil and gas financing has spiralled over the past couple of years, dominating the riskier end of the bond market. According to data compiled by Barclays, energy bonds now make up nearly 16 per cent of the $1.3tn junk bond market — more than three-times their proportion 10 years ago. Nearly 45 per cent of this year’s non-investment grade syndicated loans have been in oil and gas.

Sabine-Forest合併案的融資只是諸多此類例子之一。過去幾年，油氣行業的融資項目呈螺旋式增長，在債券市場風險較高的一端佔據主導地位。巴克萊編制的數據顯示，能源債如今在垃圾債券市場（總值1.3萬億美元）的佔比接近16%，是10年前佔比的3倍還多。今年的非投資級銀團貸款，將近45%是發放給油氣行業的。

But investor demand has not matched the level of deals, with a troubling result: as much as half of the outstanding financing from the past couple of years may be stuck on banks’ books, analysts say.

但投資者的需求與交易數量不相匹配，這造成了一個令人不安的結果：分析師稱，過去幾年未了結的融資，可能有高達一半停留在銀行的賬目上。

New research from AllianceBernstein highlights the extent of US banks’ exposure. Wells Fargo tops the list.

聯博(AllianceBernstein)所做的新研究突顯出了美國銀行業的風險敞口之大。富國銀行位列榜首。

It participated in $37bn of non-investment grade loans from 2012 to 2014. Only JPMorgan, with $31.7bn of deals, comes close.

該行在2012年至2014年間參與了總額爲370億美元的非投資級貸款，接近這一水平的只有摩根大通(JPMorgan)，後者參與了總額爲317億美元的非投資級貸款。

Barclays and fellow UK banks HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland are relatively low in the pecking order, with between $11bn and $12bn apiece. In between are five other North American lenders and Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ.

巴克萊及總部同在英國的匯豐(HSBC)和蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)在榜單上排名相對靠後，各自參與的非投資級貸款總額在110億至120億美元之間。夾在上述兩個集團中間的是另外5家北美銀行以及日本的三菱東京UFJ銀行(Mitsubishi UFJ)。

There is a sanguine view of the oil price slump — that this is just how markets behave and that the price will recover in time.

對於油價暴跌，還有一個樂觀的看法，即認爲這就是市場的運行模式、油價最終會反彈回來。

But, to many, $60 oil looks like it is here to stay. Lower demand will persist for years, thanks to the weakening outlook for China and Europe, while supply has been expanded by booming US shale production and stubbornly high Opec production. If that view is right, there is a stark parallel with the US property market collapse that heralded the start of the 2008 global financial crisis — and upended banks along the way. Those lenders with oil exposure on their books may well be stuck with big losses.

但在很多人看來，油價似乎會停留在每桶60美元的水平。由於中國和歐洲的增長前景變糟，需求減少的狀況將持續數年，而美國頁岩油產量的迅速提高以及石油輸出國組織(Opec)產量的居高不下已造成供應增加。如果這個觀點是正確的，那麼現在的形勢與美國房地產市場的崩盤極爲相似，那次崩盤爲2008年全球金融危機拉開了序幕，並在這一過程中重創銀行業。那些賬目上有石油風險敞口的銀行，很可能會遭受巨大損失。

Yet the banks with the biggest stakes in this high-risk market are among the most prized by investors.

不過，在這個高風險市場擁有最大敞口的那些銀行，卻也在最受投資者追捧的銀行之列。

Wells Fargo is one of the most highly valued banks in the world, enjoying a share price rise of 23 per cent this year. It is tempting to think that — like the other darlings of the post-crisis banking market, notably Standard Chartered and BNP Paribas — it is overdue a fall from grace. If Wells Fargo’s exposure was in line with the estimated industry average, that would imply a potential loss of about $8bn.

富國銀行是全球最受投資者追捧的銀行之一，其股價今年累計上漲23%。人們不禁會想，就像後危機時代銀行業市場的其他寵兒、特別是渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)和法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)一樣，富國銀行早就該失寵了。如果富國銀行的風險敞口與人們估計的行業平均值一致，那將意味着它可能會遭受80億美元左右的損失。

On the other hand, Wells has become such a machine of profitability that given its current earnings growth the bank could recover such a sum within five months. Other banks might not be so lucky.

不過，富國銀行已成長爲一個十足的賺錢機器，考慮到其目前的盈利增速，它可以在5個月內彌補這筆損失。其他銀行可能就不會這麼幸運了。

So the latest muscle-flexing from regulators is timely. In the US, the Federal Reserve is further toughening the banks’ required capital ratios. Last week, it exposed a $22bn capital shortfall at JPMorgan alone. On Tuesday, the Bank of England is due to report back on UK bank stress test results. A simultaneous stability report from the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee is expected to zero in on the oil price, among other issues.

因此，監管機構最新一次發威的時間可謂恰到好處。在美國，美聯儲(Fed)正在進一步收緊銀行的資本充足率要求。上週它宣佈，僅摩根大通一家銀行就存在220億美元的資本金缺口。週二，英國央行(BoE)公佈了英國銀行業壓力測試結果，其金融政策委員會(FPC)還公佈了金融穩定報告，針對油價下跌發出警告，並談到了其他問題。

It isn’t time for banks to draw that line just yet.

現在還沒到給銀行業的麻煩畫上句號的時候。