經濟不景氣意外來襲,日本年輕人焦躁不安

In this Friday, Nov. 21, 2014 photo, Mai Yamaguchi, a 29-year-old trading company employee heading into the gaudy Shibuya shopping area for an outing with her 4-month-old son and two other young moms and babies, poses for a portrait at a scramble crossing in Shibuya in Tokyo. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's choice last week to postpone a sales tax hike to help fend off recession comes less as a relief than as cause for greater concern over how the country will cope with its ballooning national debt. Yamaguchi was unimpressed by Abe's decision. "I'm grateful to Mr. Abe for his policies to improve childcare, but putting off the tax increase, well, they say the pension system is on the verge of bankruptcy. I think it would have been better to go ahead and raise the tax as planned," said Yamaguchi. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

本週五，2014年11月21日。照片中的女士名叫山口舞，是一名29歲的外貿公司職員，她正帶着4個月大的兒子去涉谷購物區遊玩，同行的還有另外兩個帶孩子的母親。圖中他們正在東京川流不息的涉谷街頭爭相擺pose拍照。日本首相安倍彎人上週決定推遲消費稅的上漲，以期在一定程度上緩解日本的經濟衰退。但相較於這種大場面，日本全國上下如何面對其國家債務的膨脹更值得關注。山口表示非常不滿安倍的決定。“我對於安倍發展兒童教育的政策非常感激，但就算不說稅率上漲，他們說養老保險制度以及到了崩潰邊緣，但我覺得它應該會更好而增稅計劃應當如期推進。”山口說道。（美聯社照片/尤金星野）

TOKYO (AP) — When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe responded to Japan's surprise recession by delaying a sales-tax increase, it was a cause for worry, not celebration, for many young Japanese. This generation, barely aware of their country's economic heyday, frets that putting off tough decisions now could make the future even ite Abe's unprecedented stimulus efforts — almost everything short of dropping money from helicopters — Japan has slipped into recession less than two years after the last one. With the country's debt rising, population aging and job security fading, young people in particular wonder when, and if, Japan will bounce back.

東京（美聯社）——當日本首相安倍彎人迴應日本民衆對於推遲增加消費稅的驚訝之潮時，引發了一片擔憂而非慶賀，尤其對於年輕的日本人。這一代人幾乎沒有體會到自己國家經濟的鼎盛時期，他們對於推遲消費稅上漲感到焦躁，擔心未來可能會更加糟糕。儘管安倍實施了空前的刺激措施——幾乎就是直接從直升機上撒錢——但此後不到兩年日本再次陷入經濟衰退之中。隨着國家債務的增加，人口老齡化和就業保障的衰弱，年輕人特別疑惑什麼時候日本經濟纔會反彈。

"This is our children's future," said Mai Yamaguchi, a 29-year-old trading company employee heading into the gaudy Shibuya shopping area for an outing with her 4-month-old son and two other young moms and babies. "Child care, elder care, social welfare are all going to be even bigger burdens for us."Under pressure to reduce the developed world's heaviest per-capita debt burden, at over a quadrillion yen ($8.5 trillion), Abe raised the sales tax from 5 percent to 8 percent in April, and was supposed to increase it to 10 percent next year. But after the economy, already fragile after two decades of malaise, shrank for two quarters in a row, he put off the second increase until 2017.

“未來屬於孩子們。”山口舞說道。他是一名29歲的外貿公司職員。她正帶着4個月大的兒子去涉谷購物區遊玩，同行的還有另外兩個帶孩子的母親。她正帶着4個月大的兒子去涉谷購物區遊玩，同行的還有另外兩個帶孩子的母親。“孩子們要養，老人也要養，對我們這些人來說這些都是越來越重的負擔。”在需要消減世界上最重的人均債務負擔（一千萬億日元，8.5萬億美元）的壓力下，安倍在4月份把消費稅從5%上調到了8%，並計劃在來年上跳到10%。但日本經濟經過20年的萎靡不振已經非常脆弱，並且又已經連續兩個季度縮水，安倍決定把第二次消費稅上調推遲到2017年。

Yamaguchi was unimpressed by that decision. "I'm grateful to Mr. Abe for his policies to improve child care, but putting off the tax increase, well, they say the pension system is on the verge of bankruptcy. I think it would have been better to go ahead and raise the tax as planned," she generation born as Japan's economic bubble burst in the early 1990s will be supporting a vast cohort of retirees. Though their nation is rich, with ultra-modern public transport, low crime rates and excellent public health services, most are making do without the security of lifetime employment enjoyed by their parents and grandparents.

山口非常不滿這一決定。“我對於安倍發展兒童教育的政策非常感激，但就算不說稅率上漲，他們說養老保險制度以及到了崩潰邊緣，但我覺得它應該會更好而增稅計劃應當如期推進。”他說。他們這代人出生於日本經濟泡沫剛剛破滅的1990年代，低犯罪率和出色的社保服務，大多數都是他們父母和祖父母這一代所享受到的。

In this Friday, Nov. 21, 2014 photo, Ryosuke Sunaga, a college senior, poses for a portrait at a scramble crossing at Shibuya shopping district in Tokyo. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's choice last week to postpone a sales tax hike to help fend off recession comes less as a relief than as cause for greater concern over how the country will cope with its ballooning national debt. Sunaga is acutely aware that he'll be supporting an ever growing number of retirees throughout his future career. “Speaking clearly, they just postponed it. In the end the tax will go up to 10%, to me it seems they are just using a temporary expedient and I don't really approve,” Sunaga said. "I don't really like the idea of higher taxes, but to a certain extent there is no avoiding passing the burden on to the younger generation. By the time I have kids the sales tax will probably be 15%, I'm thinking that will be tough. But compared to Europe the sales tax is still relatively low so raising it to 10% seems unavoidable to me." (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

本週五，2014年11月21日。照片中的人名叫須永涼介，一名準大學畢業生，在東京的涉谷街頭擺pose拍的。日本首相安倍彎人上週決定推遲消費稅的上漲，以期在一定程度上緩解日本的經濟衰退。但相較於這種大場面，日本全國上下如何面對其國家債務的膨脹更值得關注。須永敏銳的意識到在他今後的職業生涯中將面對不斷增加的退休老人。“說白了他們只是推遲了增稅，說到底還是要漲到10%的。對我來說他們這樣做只是權宜之計，我是肯定不會同意的。”須永說道。“說實話我不喜歡高稅收，但一定程度上說這個重擔無論如何都無法避免落到年輕一代人的身上。等我有孩子的時候消費稅已經漲到15%了，我想那肯定會非常艱難。但看看歐洲的稅收，漲到10%仍然是比較低的，而它註定要落到我身上”（美聯社照片/尤金星野）

Meanwhile, Japan's economy is being eclipsed by neighboring China, whose up-and-coming tech and industrial companies are increasingly potent birth rates and increased life expectancy mean that Japan's working age population is thinning out while the number of retirees and centenarians is swelling. The rapid aging of Japanese society is so evident in the mix of pedestrians on the street, in the media and in political discourse that it's an issue on just about everyone's uke Sunaga, a college senior decked out in his best job-hunting suit and brand new briefcase, said that by the time he has kids, he expects the sales tax will be at least 15 percent.

與此同時，它的鄰居中國那些不斷崛起的高科技企業和龐大的工業不斷髮展，使得日本經濟相比之下黯然失色。低出生率以及平均壽命的延長意味着日本的勞動人口薄弱，而退休人員和百歲老人不斷增加。日本人口的快速老齡化在大街上尤爲明顯，在媒體和政治層面也常被提及，已經成爲了每個人心中的問題。須永涼介，一個準大學畢業生。穿着它最好的求職裝束和嶄新的公文包。他說估計當他有孩子的時候消費稅至少已經上漲到15%了。

On Friday, Abe dissolved parliament for a Dec. 14 snap election he is calling to seek public approval of the tax hike delay and to affirm public support for his all-or-nothing policies to revive the world's third-largest has pledged to vanquish Japan's long stagnation by injecting tens of trillions of yen (hundreds of billions of dollars) into the economy, pushing prices higher and the value of Japan's currency lower. He also has promised a sweeping and drastic overhaul to help improve the country's crumbling competitiveness.

週五，安倍在議會就12月14日提前大選的會議散會後，呼籲日本大衆認可他推遲增稅計劃，並且就他可有可無的政策尋求民衆支持，以期複習全球第三大經濟體。他已經承諾將注入幾十萬億日元來戰勝日本長期的的經濟衰退和停滯。（相當於數千億美元），推動產業價值走高和日幣匯率降低。他還含淚承諾要徹底改革以提高和改變該國搖搖欲墜的競爭力。

In this Friday Nov. 21, 2014 photo, Kaori Endo, a 21-year-old bread factory worker from Ibaraki, north of Tokyo, poses for a portrait at a scramble crossing at Shibuya shopping district in Tokyo. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's choice tlast week to postpone a sales tax hike to help fend off recession comes less as a relief than as cause for greater concern over how the country will cope with its ballooning national debt. Endo said she wouldn't mind paying more for taxes if she felt like she might benefit from them. But her bigger concern is getting a permanent job. “Right now I'm living with my family but I'm thinking about how I will support my parents,” she said. Endo is hoping the government will be able to handle its growing debt and other problems. “I want to be hopeful,” she said. “This is the country I was born in so I want to believe in it.” (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

本週五，2014年11月21日。照片中的女生名叫遠藤香織，今年21歲，是茨城麪包廠的工人。在東京北部涉谷的十字路口拍攝。日本首相安倍彎人上週決定推遲消費稅的上漲，以期在一定程度上緩解日本的經濟衰退。但相較於這種大場面，日本全國上下如何面對其國家債務的膨脹更值得關注。遠藤表示只要能夠從中受益，他不介意付出更多的稅。但他更擔心的是如何獲得一份長期穩定的工作。“現在我還和家人住在一起，但我很擔心怎麼給父母養老。”他說。遠藤希望政府有能力控制債務增長和其他的問題。“我希望看到救贖”他說“這是生我養我的土地，我希望能相信它。”（美聯社照片/尤金星野）

So far, that combination, dubbed "Abenomics," has yielded mixed its of big exporters have surged, thanks to the weaker yen, but higher costs have hit households and smaller companies. Despite some wage increases, many ordinary Japanese feel less well off than before, thanks to longer-term declines in wages and purchasing power."I'm not a permanent employee, and that worries me," said Kaori Endo, a 21-year-old bread factory worker from Ibaraki, north of Tokyo."Right now I'm living with my family, but I'm thinking about how I will support my parents. If I were a full employee, my parents would be less worried," said Endo, who plans to take professional tests to help improve her job status.

迄今爲止，名爲安倍經濟學的組合拳已經產生了複雜的結果。得益於日元的貶值，大出口商的利潤大幅上漲，但成本較高的中小型企業儘管獲得了一定的增長，許多日本民衆卻感到大不如前，這都要感謝長期下降的工資和購買力。“我不是正式職員，這可愁死我了”遠藤香織說道。他21歲，在東京北部的茨城麪包廠工作。“現在我還和家人住在一起，但我很擔心怎麼給父母養老。如果我有一份長期穩定的工作，父母會少擔心很多。”遠藤說。他表示正計劃考些專業證書以找到一份更好的工作。

Over the past two decades, Japanese manufacturers struggling to compete with rivals in China have grown increasingly reliant on temporary or contract workers. Budget cuts have extended such practices into other fields such as teaching and nursing. Today, about four in 10 Japanese work in part-time or contract jobs with little job security and scant benefits. For young Japanese, permanent, career-track jobs are the exception, rather than the rule.

在過去的20年裏，日本在對手中國的競爭壓力下對於臨時工和合同工的依賴不斷增長。並且不斷消減的預算也使得這種做法延伸到了其他領域，比如醫療和教育。如今10個日本人裏大約有4個是兼職或者合同工，幾乎沒有工作保障且毫無利潤可言。對於年輕的日本人永久的，穩定的職業軌跡非常少見。

In this Friday, Nov. 21, 2014 photo, Yuto Tanaka, a college student, poses for a portrait in Shibuya shopping district in Tokyo. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's choice last week to postpone a sales tax hike to help fend off recession comes less as a relief than as cause for greater concern over how the country will cope with its ballooning national debt. Tanaka, 19, says he's an Abe supporter and agrees that the tax hike should be put off. But in the longer run, Japan needs to reform its social welfare system, among many other things, says Tanaka, who hopes to become a teacher. "I think we should consider what sort of society we want," he said. "There are big, systemic problems I personally cannot fix. But we have to each think about what we can do as individuals." (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

本週五，2014年11月21日。照片中的男人名叫田中佑都，是個大學生，照片拍攝於東京涉谷商圈。日本首相安倍彎人上週決定推遲消費稅的上漲，以期在一定程度上緩解日本的經濟衰退。但相較於這種大場面，日本全國上下如何面對其國家債務的膨脹更值得關注。田中今年19歲，他是安倍彎人的支持者，並認爲增稅應當被延遲。但就長期來說，日本在許多其他問題中首先需要改革它的經濟制度。田中表示他想成爲教師。“我認爲我們應該考慮下我們需要的是一個什麼樣的社會。”他說“有些問題很大，非常系統化，我個人無力解決。但是我們每個人都應該想想自己能夠做些什麼。”（美聯社照片/尤金星野）

As lawmakers rush to prepare for the election, Abe is renewing his campaign to persuade Japanese companies to raise wages and offer more opportunities for women workers. He also has promised to slash corporate taxes beginning next year to entice companies to invest more in the meantime, Abe has been pushing ahead with cuts to social welfare, raising health insurance premiums and co-payment requirements for all, including mately, Japanese taxpayers will end up shouldering an even greater share of the country's surging costs for health insurance, elder care and pensions, said Koichi Hamada, an economic adviser to Abe."It's not very fair to poorer constituents, but still we have to go ahead with the consumption tax hike," Hamada said.

作爲立法者安倍彎人急於爲選舉做準備，他更新了它的競選說辭說服日本企業提高工資，並提供女工更多的工作機會。他還承諾從明年開始將削減企業稅收，以吸引企業更多在日本投資。在此期間，安倍彎人一直推進削減社會福利，提高醫療保險費以及對所有人的共同費用分攤，也包括退休人員的。最終，日本納稅人將承擔更大份額的國家醫療保險成本飆升，社保和養老金，安倍晉三的經濟顧問浜田宏一說。“這對經濟拮据的選民不是很公平，但我們必須推進消費稅上調”濱田說。

College student Yuto Tanaka, 19, said he knows that there's millions of yen (tens of thousands of dollars) in debt for every person in Japan. But fretting won't resolve that problem, and neither would an immediate tax hike, he said."If they raise the sales tax now, it will hurt the economy and tax revenues will fall anyway," said Tanaka, taking a break at the bustling intersection in Shibuya known as "Scramble" before heading to classes."We have to hope," he said. "If Japan falls to pieces, our society will be finished. We have to muddle through."

大學生佑田中今年19，他說他知道每個日本人身上都承擔了幾百萬日元的債務（數萬美元）。但微調不會解決這個問題，即便立刻加稅也沒用，他說。“如果他們現在提高銷售稅，會傷害到整個經濟而稅收收入會不升反降。”田中在澀谷繁華的路口若有所思的說。他正在去上課的路上，稍微歇息一下。“我們必須保持希望”他說。“如果日本瓦解，我們整個社會就完了。我們必須撐過去。”