項目上線一波多折 滬港通緩慢啓動

The new stock market link between Shanghai and Hong Kong that opened this week to big fanfare corrected what has long been a cruel unfairness in China: that shares of its best companies, such as Baidu Inc, Alibaba, and Tencent Holdings (known as the collective BAT) can’t be bought by Chinese mainland investors.

上週，滬港通高調落地。這終結了中國長期以來一個殘酷的不公平現象：中國大陸的投資者無法購買像百度、阿里巴巴和騰訊（三者合稱爲“BAT”）等中國一流企業的股票。

China’s strict outbound money rules prevent mom and pop investors (or their mutual fund managers) from buying overseas stocks such as Alibaba, which is listed in New York. By the same token, foreign asset managers couldn’t, until this week, buy mainland Chinese stocks except through a hugely cumbersome permissioning process.

中國對出境資金的嚴格限制，使得個人投資者（或其共同基金經理）無法購買在紐約上市的阿里巴巴等海外股票。同理，直到上週，外國資產管理公司除非通過極爲繁瑣的許可程序，否則也無法購買中國大陸的股票。

Hong Kong is a popular listing for many Chinese companies, where Tencent, China Mobile, and Lenovo Group are among those listed there and newly eligible for mainland investors. But by Wednesday, the Chinese showed little interest in owning their national champions.

許多中國企業都選擇在香港上市。騰訊、中國移動以及聯想集團都屬於此前在港上市、新近允許大陸投資者投資的企業。不過，在上週三，中國投資者對於投資中國一流企業似乎興趣不大。

The money flows through the first three days of China’s meaningful stock market reform mostly went northbound from Hong Kong’s international investors into mainland China. At the end of Wednesday, northbound investments represented 20% of the daily cap on flows; southbound flows, from mainland investors to Hong Kong, were just 2.5% of the daily cap. Similar low levels of southbound money were evident on Monday and Tuesday.

滬港通這項中國股市的重大改革開鑼前三天，資金主要是北上，由香港國際投資者投入中國大陸股市。上週三結束時，北上資金總量達到每日限額的20%，而南下資金總量，即大陸投資者投入香港股市的資金，僅爲每日限額的2.5%。上週一和週二，南下資金量也明顯處於低位。

All those anticipating a flood of money in both directions were left looking a bit Pollyannish. Tencent capped its third straight day of losses today, falling 5.5% in Hong Kong since Monday after rising for days, partly in anticipation of the link to mainland investors; Lenovo and China Mobile similarly sold off when anticipated money flows never came.

如今看來，那些預測南下和北上資金流都將洶涌的人士，是過於樂觀了。截止上週三，騰訊已經連續三日下跌，自上週一以來在香港股市下跌了5.5％。此前，騰訊股價連日上漲，部分是因爲市場預期該股會受到大陸投資者的青睞。同樣，由於預期的資金流入並未出現，聯想和中國移動的股票也遭到拋售。

The explanations for the rise that never came might boil down to teething troubles. It’s still not entirely clear, for instance, how the differing tax regimes in Hong Kong and Shanghai will be reconciled–despite Beijing’s announcement last week that it would temporarily exempt some taxation of capital gains. Also, Chinese investors have to wade through new regulations and many of the Hong Kong stocks are listed in Shanghai too.

沒有出現預期的上漲，其原因可以歸結爲萬事開頭難。比如，目前尚不完全清楚，香港和上海的稅制差異將如何調和，儘管中國政府上週宣佈，將暫時免除部分資本所得稅。此外，中國投資者必須費勁的啃完新法規，而且許多在香港上市的公司，同時也有在上海上市。

It might also have something to do with the fact that China’s economy may no longer be able to deliver the kind of growth that equity markets have long taken for granted.

另外，還有一個可能的原因是，中國經濟可能無法再實現股市早就習以爲常的高速增長。

But allowing everyone a chance to own the best of China’s listed companies, be they in mainland China or Hong Kong, is an exciting change and “a successful connection could even prompt existing New York-listed companies like Alibaba and Baidu to consider secondary listings in Hong Kong,” wrote Doug Young on his blog following Chinese stocks.

但是，使人人都有機會投資一流的中國上市公司，不論其是在中國大陸還是香港上市，都是一個令人興奮的變化。而且，正如記者陽歌（Doug Young）在其關注中國股票的博客中所寫，“如果滬港通獲得成功，阿里巴巴和百度等在紐約上市的公司，甚至可能考慮在香港進行二次上市。”

Maybe then, Chinese investors could join the American TV talking heads and Wall Streeters obsessing over BABA’s daily swings.

屆時，或許中國投資者可以同美國電視臺評論員以及華爾街人士一樣，對於阿里巴巴股價的每日波動喋喋不休。