看風雲際會 誰會點燃中國經濟火藥桶

The deepening property glut in China's smaller and medium-sized cities is the kindling that could set ablaze the country's plans for steady 7.5% growth. If that's the case, what's the match?

中國二三線城市房地產供給過剩現象愈演愈烈，可能導致中國經濟難以實現7.5%的平穩增長。問題是，誰會點燃這個火藥桶？

Most economists -- even those skeptical of China's growth story--say the country isn't likely to experience a 'Lehman moment.' They don't expect to see one outsized decision that implodes the economy, the way the U.S. government's decision not to save Lehman Brothers from bankruptcy in 2008 set in motion a quick chain reaction that ended in a deep global recession.

多數經濟學家都覺得中國不太可能遭遇“雷曼時刻”，即便是那些看空中國經濟的人也不否認這點。他們相信中國政府不會像美國那樣做出讓經濟崩潰的決定。2008年，美國政府拒絕挽救瀕臨破產的雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)，其引發的連鎖反應把全球經濟拖入一場大衰退。

Rather, the risk for China is a much deeper slowing of growth than officials anticipate, or can head off. Japan is more the model there. Like China, it too was rapidly growing. It also had an activist government that expected companies to follow its lead. And it had a huge stock of foreign exchange reserves. None of that helped stave off the effects of a real-estate bust that saddled the banks with bad debts, constricted credit and made ordinary people wary of spending.

中國面臨的風險在於經濟放緩的程度超出政府的預期或是超出政府的解救能力。日本是中國的前車之鑑。和中國一樣，日本經濟也曾經高速增長，也曾有過非常主動的、希望企業聽從指揮的政府，也曾擁有鉅額的外匯儲備，但這一切都沒能避免房地產崩盤的連鎖效應，結果是銀行壞賬纏身，銀根緊縮，普通人捂緊錢袋子。

'The concern is that China will repeat Japan's story in the 1990s,' says JP Morgan economist Haibin Zhu. 'Financial risks continue. Debt keeps getting rolled over. That creates zombie banks and zombie corporations. Eventually that causes the GDP to weaken.'

摩根大通(JP Morgan)經濟學家朱海斌表示，人們擔心中國重蹈上世紀90年代日本的覆轍。朱海斌說，金融風險持續存在，債務不斷展期，催生出殭屍銀行和殭屍公司，最終會導致國內生產總值(GDP)走軟。

One obvious candidate for the match is an overall slowdown in growth. In that scenario, consumers reduce spending; developers can't unload property; debts go unpaid; banks stop lending; GDP growth slows even more. And so on.

相關報道中國樓市增長放緩 市場各方憂心忡忡博客：有關中國樓市供應過剩的問與答博客：營口房地產市場冷過冬天中國經濟整體減速可能會成爲爆發點。這不難理解，因爲一旦發生這種情況，消費者就會減少支出，開發商賣不掉樓盤，無法償還債務，銀行就會停止放貸，導致GDP增速進一步放緩和其他連鎖反應。

Paradoxically, reform measures meant to solidify China's growth over the long term could also become the match that could touch off a conflagration. A big push for interest rate liberalization or capital account liberalization or property taxes could backfire.

矛盾的是，旨在鞏固中國長期經濟增長的措施同時也可能引發危機。尋求利率市場化、資本賬戶開放或徵收房產稅的重大舉措可能適得其反。

How? Let's take them one by one.

爲什麼？讓我們逐個分析。

For one, introducing more market forces is likely to push up interest rates, which would make it harder for people and companies to finance their debts and cause property prices to fall further.

首先，讓更多市場力量發揮作用有可能推高利率，這會讓個人和企業更難爲其債務融資，並導致房價進一步下滑。

Secondly, letting Chinese savers invest overseas could give them a way to diversify their portfolios and make house purchases in China much less attractive. For decades, China has essentially held savers captive and given them few ways to make decent returns other than investing in real estate.

第二，允許中國儲蓄者在海外投資可能讓他們得以將投資組合多元化，而在中國購房的吸引力就會大大減弱。幾十年來，中國實質上困住了儲蓄者，讓他們除了投資房地產之外沒有什麼途徑可以獲得可觀的回報。

Finally, introducing a property tax could certainly help in places like Beijing, where prices are prices are so high that only the wealthy can afford to buy. But a tax would knock down prices even further in the third- and fourth-tier cities that are already have too many apartments to sell.

最後，開徵房產稅在北京這樣的大城市肯定能發揮作用，這些城市的房價極高，只有富人才買得起。但在住宅供應已經過剩的三四線城市，房產稅會進一步打壓房價。

'There are a myriad of potential triggers,' says Nomura analyst Zhiwei Zhang.

野村經濟學家張智威說，有衆多可能的觸發因素。

Mr. Zhang says fear of reform backfiring in the property market could play out a different way too--by becoming a big obstacle to pushing through reforms already pledged by China's leaders.

張智威說，對改革在房地產市場產生反作用的擔憂還可能產生另外的效果——成爲推進中國領導人已承諾改革的一個重大障礙。

So what might the Chinese government do to prevent or address a property problem? One possibility, economists say, is ending certain housing purchase restrictions. In cities like Beijing or Shanghai, where there is plenty of pent-up demand, buyers need to put down as much as 60% in mortgage for a second home, for instance.

那麼，中國政府可能會採取些什麼措施來預防或應對房地產行業的問題？經濟學家們說，一個可能是，結束某些購房限制。比如，在存在大量被壓抑需求的北京、上海等城市，購房者貸款購買第二套住房時需要交60%的首付。

The government has hinted it's open to such a change. Its 2014 economic work plan says it will 'regulate housing differently in different cities in light of local conditions,' suggesting that it might lift restrictions in China's biggest cities. The government could additionally consider permitting more buildings or making financing easier, which would boost supply and eventually reduce prices. But its plan aren't clear. For example, the work plan also repeats last year's pledge to 'curb demand for housing for speculation and investment purposes.'

中國政府已暗示，對取消某些住房限購措施持開放態度。2014年的《政府工作報告》稱，要針對不同城市的情況對住房市場進行分類調控。這是在暗示政府可能會取消一線城市的限購措施。政府可能還會考慮允許更多項目開工或者放寬融資環境，這將增加住房供應，從而最終壓低房價。但政府的方案並不明確。比如，《政府工作報告》還重申了去年的承諾，也就是要抑制投機投資性住房需求。

And those sort of measures won't do much in places where demand is lacking. To jog housing in those areas, say economists, the government would probably need to cut interest rates to boost consumption and lending. The trouble there is that localities may interpret monetary easing as a signal to free up lending to real estate developers to build even more housing -- the very problem the government is trying to deal with now.

在缺乏市場需求的地區，這些措施不會起到多大作用。經濟學家說，要提振這些地區的房地產市場，政府可能需要通過下調利率來促進消費和借貸。但問題是，地方政府可能會將貨幣寬鬆措施解讀爲“解凍”對地產開發商信貸投放的信號，從而造成開發商修建更多住房，而這正是政府目前努力解決的問題。

Tsinghua University economist Li Daokui, a former central bank adviser, says a slowdown in real estate prices is bound to reduce revenue to local governments and produce bankruptcies. To get ahead of the problem, he says, China's bankruptcy law needs to be strengthened and a bailout fund created as a way to restructure debts.

清華大學經濟學家、前中國央行貨幣政策委員李稻葵表示，房價增勢放緩勢必會導致地方財政收入減少並引發企業破產。他說，要預先對這一問題做好準備，中國就需要完善破產法，並設立一隻救助基金作爲債務重組的渠道。

'There is room for the government to be proactive,' he says. If it isn't, he fears 'a potential panic, like a bank run.'

李稻葵說，政府有未雨綢繆的空間，如果不事先採取行動，他擔心可能會出現類似銀行擠兌的市場恐慌。