適者生存: 電視行業面臨滅頂之災大綱
Could it really turn out that a company with a seemingly loopy business model -- capturing over-the-air TV signals and streaming them to subscribers over the Internet -- will be the thing that finally brings down the American broadcasting industry? Quite possibly.
捕獲無線電視信號，然後通過因特網傳送給用戶——這種看起來異想天開的商業模式，會不會成爲最終顛覆美國電視業的罪魁禍首？太有可能了。
Chase Carey, News Corp.'s (NWSA) chief operating officer, said Monday that if the company in question, Aereo, is allowed to continue, his company's Fox Broadcasting, and all its affiliate stations, will stop broadcasting over the air and go all-cable. "If CBS, NBC, and ABC follow," says Bloomberg News, it would "mark an end to television as it's been known since The Honeymooners aired in the 1950s." So far, those networks haven't weighed in, but the Spanish-language TV giant Univision has: It made a similar threat after Carey made his remarks during to the National Association of Broadcasters convention in Las Vegas.
本週一，新聞集團（News Corp.）首席運營官切斯•凱里表示，如果備受質疑的Aereo公司獲准繼續運營，那麼新聞集團旗下的福克斯廣播（Fox Broadcasting）以及所有附屬電視臺都將停用無線信號，改用有線傳輸。彭博新聞社（Bloomberg News）報道：“如果哥倫比亞廣播公司（CBS）、全國廣播公司（NBC）和美國廣播公司（ABC）效仿，自20世紀50年代隨着《蜜月新人》（The Honeymooners ）的播出而興起的電視產業將就此走到盡頭。”到目前爲止，這些廣播公司尚未表態，不過西班牙語電視巨頭Univision卻摻合了進來。繼凱里在全國廣播事業工作者協會（National Association of Broadcasters）於拉斯維加斯舉辦的會議上發出威脅之後，Univision也發表了類似的言論。
Those other networks, though, along with PBS and Fox, are fighting hard to put Aereo out of business. But so far, they're losing their legal argument. A federal appeals court last week ruled that Aereo can keep operating while their lawsuit against the company proceeds. In so doing, the judges noted that the networks are unlikely to win at trial. Barring a further appeal to the Supreme Court or passage of new laws, that would mean that broadcast signals are there for the taking by Internet streaming companies like Aereo, which is backed by Barry Diller's IAC/Interactive (IACI).
除了公共廣播公司（PBS）和福克斯廣播以外，其它廣播公司也正在拼命置Aereo於死地。然而他們正在失去法律依據。上週，聯邦上訴法院判決表示，訴訟進行期間，Aereo可以繼續運營。如此一來，法官等於宣佈了廣播電視商們不大可能打贏這場官司。無法向最高法院上訴，也不能借助新法律，這意味着由巴里•迪勒的互動公司（IAC，InterActiveCorp.）支持的Aereo等網絡流媒體公司可以自由獲取空中電視信號。
The broadcasters say the model amounts to copyright infringement. Carey on Monday said that his company "won't just sit idle and allow our content to be actively stolen." Aereo's business is based on a 2008 court ruling that applied in that case to Cablevision's "cloud based" DVR service, which essentially functions as a home video recorder with a really long cord, attached at the other end to a machine in a Cablevision (CVC) facility that stores video files for the personal use of subscribers. The length of the cord, the court essentially ruled, shouldn't matter.
廣播電視公司稱這種模式涉嫌侵犯版權。凱里在週一表示，新聞集團“絕不會坐以待斃，對內容被竊一事置之不理。”Aereo的業務的合理性是依據法院在2008年針對Cablevision雲技術數字錄像機服務的一項判決。這款產品本質上是一個家庭錄像機，通過一根極長的數據線連接到Cablevision服務器端存儲的視頻文件，從而收看節目。最終法院判決，數據線的長度不是問題。
Aereo says it's basically doing the same thing, but with broadcast signals, which, after all, are free for the taking by any viewer who wants them. Aereo makes a TV signal available to viewers, via the Internet, for a subscription fee. The legal basis for the business depends on Aereo creating a separate video file for each subscriber -- something that's not technically necessary but is done only to comply with copyright laws.
Aereo稱，他們在本質上也是這麼做的，只不過把視頻文件換成了電視信號。畢竟，對於任何想收看電視節目的人來說，空中電視信號都是免費的，而Aereo讓用戶在因特網上接收到電視信號，從中收取一定費用。它的合法性在於，Aereo爲每位用戶創建了獨立的視頻文件——這麼做在技術上並不必要，僅僅是爲了不違反版權法。
Aereo draws more viewers to the programming, and hence to the ads. But it devalues the cable subscriptions that people buy largely in order to access local and live programming without having to fuss with an antenna. "It is clear that the broadcast business needs a dual revenue stream from both ad and subscription to be viable," Carey told the crowd at the NAB convention. And he made it clear which revenue stream is more important: "We simply cannot provide the type of quality sports, news, and entertainment content that we do from an ad-supported-only business model. We have no choice but to develop business solutions that ensure we continue to remain in the driver's seat of our own destiny."
Aereo吸引了越來越多的觀衆，廣告合同也隨之紛至沓來。過去，人們想要收看當地節目和直播節目，又想省去安裝天線的麻煩，因此使用有線電視服務。有了Aereo，有線電視服務就貶值了。凱里在全國廣播事業工作者協會的會議上對大家說：“很明顯，電視行業需要廣告費和有線電視費的雙重收入來源才能夠養活自己。”至於哪項收入來源更加重要，他說：“我們如果想要提供優質的體育、新聞和娛樂內容，僅僅依靠廣告是不行的。現在我們別無選擇，只能尋找其他的解決方案，才能繼續掌控自己的命運。”
Such a move, though, especially if copied by other networks, "could cripple the network-local station broadcast model," notes AdWeek's Katy Bachman.
然而這樣的行爲，尤其是如果其他電視網絡商羣起效仿的話，“將損害從電視網到本地廣播電視臺的商業模式，”《廣告週刊》（AdWeek）的凱蒂•巴克曼說。
There is some irony in the fact that Aereo's threat to TV has broadcasters considering retreating behind cable's walls, which themselves are under threat from the Internet. While "cord cutting" isn't so far a huge problem for cable companies, it is a problem. Only about 5% of viewers gave up on pay-TV last year, according to Nielsen, but that number is slowly growing as Internet-viewing options proliferate. So far the threat is mainly from the likes of Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN), which offer a range of movies and TV shows for a fraction of the cost of a cable subscription, which can run higher than $100 a month。
鑑於Aereo步步緊逼，廣播公司正在考慮退守有線網絡。但不乏諷刺意味的是，有線電視本身也在面臨着互聯網的威脅。對於有線電視公司來說，“放棄有線”這個問題還談不上生死攸關，卻也不容忽視。尼爾森公司（Nielsen）的數據顯示，去年只有約5%的觀衆放棄了付費的有線電視，但是隨着網上觀看的選擇激增，這個比例正在逐漸擴大。目前主要的威脅來自網飛（Netflix）和亞馬遜（Amazon）這類公司，他們提供各種電影和電視節目，收費卻大大低於有線電視。要知道，有線電視的月費甚至可能超過100美元。
Live sports and local news are keeping a lot of viewers within the cable fold, but that's just the kind of programming that Aereo offers. Meanwhile, HBO -- which, like Fortune, is currently owned by Time Warner (TWX) -- has hinted that it might make its HBO Go streaming service to all who want to subscribe, even if they don't have a cable subscription, which is now required. For the moment, it seems like HBO believes it can make more money from the fees it collects from cable subscribers than it could make battling it out on the Internet, where prices are extremely low. But the fact that HBO is even thinking about such a move represents another crack in cable's walled fortress.
有線電視臺的實況體育賽事和本地新聞節目留住了大量觀衆，不過Aereo提供的正是這類節目。與此同時，與《財富》同屬於時代華納集團（Time Warner）的HBO電視網暗示，可能向所有有興趣的人提供HBO Go付費流媒體服務，即便他們並非有線電視用戶（該流媒體服務目前只對有線用戶開放）。HBO似乎認爲，網絡市場收費低且競爭激烈，掙點錢很不容易，在有線電視上獲得的收入比網絡上多得多。但即使這樣，HBO都已經在考慮拉攏網絡用戶，可謂在有線電視陣營自挖牆角。
A lot of people subscribe to cable mainly to have access to programming from networks like HBO, Showtime, and AMC. If such fare makes its way to the Internet separately from cable, the rationale for having a cable subscription will be that much harder to defend, especially if Aereo is allowed to remain in business.
許多有線電視的付費用戶是爲了收看HBO、Showtime和AMC等電視臺的節目。如果這些節目最終從有線電視獨立出來，在互聯網上也能看到，就沒有理由繼續爲有線電視付費了——尤其是如果Aereo獲准繼續經營的話。
