差一點扭轉歷史的10件小事(上)

It only takes the tiniest thing to change the world. A butterfly beating its wings in Texas may not start a hurricane in China, but a wrong turn can trigger one of the deadliest wars in human history. Time and again, seemingly insignificant things have proven adept at altering the course of history. But then there are the ones that almost did so, the tiny moments where history hung in the balance, only to swing the other way. In an alternate universe somewhere, these 10 little things created the modern world.

毫不起眼的小事往往能改變歷史。德克薩斯州一隻蝴蝶的振翅也許不會在中國掀起一陣颶風，但是一個錯誤的決定卻能夠導致人類史上傷亡最慘重的戰爭。一次又一次，那些貌似毫不重要的事情卻印證了它們改變了歷史進程的能力。但是， 還有一些事情，在它們幾乎要改變世界時，歷史的天平卻在關鍵的一瞬傾向了另一方。在歷史更替的洪流之中，以下這十件事形成了現代社會。

10.A Single Paragraph Almost Prevented The Civil War

10.一篇差點阻止南北戰爭的文章

Although some contend that the Civil War was fought over states' rights, those rights were inextricably linked to slavery. Texas's declaration of secession, for example, mentions slavery 18 times. But what if there was no slavery in the first place? If Thomas Jefferson had had his way, that might well have been the case.

儘管一些評論認爲美國南北戰爭是爲爭奪國家權力而爆發的，但其實這些權力與奴隸制有着千絲萬縷的關聯。以德克薩斯州的開戰宣言爲例，其中18次提到了奴隸制。但是，如果奴隸制從來就沒有存在過，世界會變成什麼樣呢？如果當年托馬斯·傑斐遜成功的廢除了奴隸制，也許就可以避免南北戰爭。 這一說法可在《獨立宣言》的早期初稿中得到證實。

This theory hinges on earlier drafts of the Declaration of Independence. Ratified on July 4, 1776, the version we all know is basically one long dis of King George III, trash talking his fitness to rule. It also contains some epically moving passages on human rights, including the equality of all men. These passages were watered down for the final version. In his earlier drafts, Jefferson included a multi-sentence rant against the evils of rant took place on the third page, and reads as follows: He(King George III) has waged cruel war against itself, violating it's most sacred of life and liberty in the persons of a distant people, who never offended him, captivating and carrying them into slavery in another hemisphere, or to incur miserable death in their transportation thither. This piratical warfare, the opprobrium of infidel powers, is the warfare of the Christian king of Great Britain, determined to keep open a market where MEN should be bought and sold, he has prostituted his negative for suppressing every legislative attempt to prohibit or to restrain this execrable short, the passage makes the horrors of British slavery an integral part to the US's decision to go it solo. Had it made the final version, it could easily have become a rallying cry. If that had been the case, accepting a slave-owning South in the years after the Revolutionary War would have become one heck of a lot harder. With no institution of slavery to fight over, it's probable that the Civil War would never have happened.

衆所周知，由於喬治三世國王的專制統治，《獨立宣言》於1776年7月4日面世，其中對“人人平等”等人權的宣揚意義非凡。傑斐遜在早期的草稿中慷慨陳詞，譴責了奴隸制的罪惡，其中第三頁的原文如下：他（喬治三世）發動殘酷地反對人性的戰爭。他強暴了一個遠方民族的生命和自由的權利，而他們從來就沒有冒犯過他。這場戰爭拐騙和脅迫了他們，使他們不是在運送途中悲慘地死去，就是被送往地球的另一端充當奴隸。這場由邪惡力量無恥發動的海盜戰爭，恰恰就是身爲基督徒的大不列顛的英皇所發動的戰爭。他決定打開這樣一個市場，在那裏，人類可以被買賣。他濫用了他的立法否決權，並利用這個否決權壓制了所有打算禁止和限制這種骯髒交易的立法嘗試。總而言之，文章向美國民衆全面的展現了大不列顛奴隸制的罪惡。如果《獨立宣言》保留了傑斐遜初稿中的這些內容，反對奴隸制很可能會成爲獨立戰爭的口號之一。如果真是這樣，經過多年的獨立戰爭後，美國南方各州將很難保留奴隸制，也就不會發生爲廢除奴隸制而起的戰爭，即南北戰爭。

9.A Picture Of A Fish Nearly Held Back Science For Decades

9.一條魚的圖片差點使科學發展延遲20年

First published in July 1687, Isaac Newton's Principia is one of the most important books ever written. It effectively invented physics, changing the way we see the world and laying the groundwork for centuries of scientific inquiry. Yet it was nearly never published, thanks to a picture of a flying fish.

首版於1687年7月的《艾薩克·牛頓定律》是有史以來最重要的書籍之一。它成功的開創了物理學，改變了我們看待世界的方式，爲此後數百年的科學探索奠定了理論基礎。而實際上，因爲一張飛魚的圖片，它差點沒能出版。

In 1686, Britain's Royal Society was preparing to publish the first editions of Principia. Before they could get started, however, they needed to release another blockbuster book. John Ray and Francis Willughby's Historia Piscium was an epic work on the history of fish, featuring extremely detailed engravings. One of the most complex of all was a picture of a flying fish, which alone cost piles of money to reproduce. These costs made the book one of the most expensive ever made. The society released it, and it flopped so hard it nearly bankrupted the society. Suddenly lacking any money whatsoever, the publishers canceled their plans to publish Principia. One of the most important books ever written only saw the light of day because a friend of Newton's eventually agreed to provide the cash.

1686年，英國皇家學會準備出版第一版《艾薩克·牛頓定律》。不過在此之前，他們要先出版另一部暢銷書。約翰·雷和弗朗西斯·威魯伯合著的《魚類志》是研究魚類的一部史詩級著作，書中極其細緻的展現了各種魚類的圖畫。其中最複雜的是一張飛魚的圖片，單單這張照片的印製就需要耗費大量成本，這本書因此成爲有史以來最貴的一本書。最終，英國皇家學會出版了這本書，但是銷路並不好。 這本書成本太高，銷路又差，差點導致英國皇家學會破產，他們沒有錢再按原定計劃出版《艾薩克·牛頓定律》。最終，牛頓的一位朋友提供了資金支援，這本最偉大的著作才得以見諸於世。

8.A Funding Agreement Almost Saw Britain Win The Space Race

8.一個幾乎使英國贏得太空競賽的融資協定

The space race was a bruising scientific showdown that saw both global superpowers take a gold. Russia managed to put the first man in orbit, while the US took the Moon. Yet both were nearly beaten by an unexpected rival. Had a small government department signed off on a check, it's likely that the first man in space would have been from Great Britain.

太空競賽是殊死搏鬥的科學對決，美蘇兩個超級大國不惜花費大量金錢決一勝負。蘇聯把第一位太空人送上了地球運行軌道，而美國則使人類登上了月球。然而，這兩個國家差點被一個意想不到的對手打敗了。如果當時英國政府部門簽署通過了融資協定的話，那麼第一個登上太空的很有可能是英國人。

In the aftermath of World War II, all of the world's great powers were scrambling to master rocket technology. The US managed to snatch Hitler's rocket man, Wernher von Braun, away from Europe, while the Russians nabbed his old research facilities. Britain had to make do with some old Nazi V-2s that the army had managed to salvage. On this alone, they began to build a viable space program. Immediately after the war, the UK was testing old V-2s by blasting them nearly into orbit and then guiding them down to land. (The rockets couldn't quite reach full orbit.) Ralph Smith of the British Interplanetary Society put forward a design for turning these rockets into habitable machines. He calculated that a single man could be placed in a windowed capsule, blasted into space for up to five minutes, and then returned to Earth safely. The designs were practical and used existing technology. It was estimated that British men could be routinely blasting into space by 1951. At least, they would have been, had the Ministry of Supply not refused to sign the check. In December 1946, Britain was broke, and the new Labour government was more interested in creating the welfare state than putting men into space. Funding was turned down after careful consideration in early 1947, and the fledgling UK space program was abandoned.

第二次世界大戰後，世界上的所有大國都在爭先掌握火箭技術 。美國設法抓到了希特勒的火箭研發科學家——遠離歐洲的沃那·馮·布萊恩先生，蘇聯則奪取了他以前的研究設施。英國則不得不出動軍隊打撈納粹使用過的舊的v-2s型火箭。此後，英國開始獨自建立可行的空間項目。在戰爭後不久，英國對v-2s型火箭進行測試，將火箭幾乎發射至運行軌道，然後將其引導回地面。（火箭不能到達完整的運行軌道）。英國星際學會的拉爾夫·史密斯提出一個設計理念，就是把這些火箭改造成可搭載人類的機器。他通過計算得出，宇航員乘坐帶有窗戶的太空艙，搭載火箭至太空並逗留不超過五分鐘，即可安全地返回地面。很快這個設計就應用在現有的技術上。 據估計，如果英國政府通過了這個項目的融資協定的話，英國人在1951年就能登上太空了。但1946年12月，英國破產了，新的工黨政府對創造福利國家更感興趣，不願把精力花在把人送上太空上。在1947年初經過仔細考慮後，英國政府拒絕通過該融資協定，羽翼未豐的空間計劃因此被迫取消。

7.A Snowstorm Could Have Killed Napoleon In 1807

7.拿破崙差點死於一場暴風雪

The Battle of Eylau in February 1807 is today chiefly remembered for seeing Napoleon screw up for the first time as a commander. Fought in East Prussia (modern Russia), it led to a deadlock between the two powers that almost lost Napoleon half his army. He also very nearly lost something much more important, namely his life, to a snowstorm.

1807年二月發生的埃勞戰役，在今天看來人們印象最深刻的是拿破崙作爲指揮官第一次在戰場上節節敗退。這場戰爭發生在東普魯士(今俄羅斯)，當時兩方戰鬥陷入僵局，而且拿破崙已失去近一半的軍隊。

On the morning of February 8, Napoleon was playing for time, waiting for reinforcements to arrive. The French troops were taking a beating, and the Russians were advancing. From the top of a bell tower in the town, the emperor tried to get a handle on the situation below. Suddenly, a tremendous snowstorm blew in. In the resulting whiteout, all vision was lost. So blinded were the French by the weather, they didn't notice as 6,000 Russians descended upon the town. Up in his bell tower, Napoleon was practically unguarded. The Russian surprise attack very nearly overwhelmed his position, which would have likely cost him his life. It was only by a combination of luck and insane bravery that his personal guard managed to hold the advancing army at bay just long enough for the reinforcements to finally arrive. The Napoleonic Wars would continue for another eight years.

拿破崙也差點因爲一場暴風雪失去對他來說更爲重要的東西，那就是他的生命。在2月8日的早上，拿破崙爲等待援軍的到來而竭力拖延時間。法國的軍隊在抵抗的同時因俄國人的不斷進攻而節節敗退。拿破崙站在鎮上鐘樓的頂端，試圖弄清戰勢。突然，一場巨大的暴風雪來了，在冰天雪地中，一切都看不清楚。能見度太低，法國士兵沒有注意到有六千多個俄國人已經兵臨城下。而在鐘樓上的拿破崙，沒有任何防守，俄國的突然進攻讓他不知所措，很有可能因此喪命。最終，他的個人護衛不畏生死與不斷逼近的俄軍在海岸僵持了很長時間，直到最後老天眷顧，援軍終於到達。因此，拿破崙戰爭才能又持續了八年。

6.A Heart Attack Nearly Changed British (And Iraqi) History

6.一場幾乎改變英國（和伊拉克）歷史的心臟病

On May 12, 1994, British Labour Party leader John Smith suffered a fatal heart attack. His death opened the leadership to a young man known as Tony Blair, who would go on to win three elections in a row. It was a pivotal moment in British history, and it nearly didn't happen thanks to another heart attack.

1994年12月5號，英國工黨領袖約翰·史密斯心臟病發去世。他的死亡爲年輕的託尼·布萊爾鋪平了領袖之路，使他成爲連續三次贏得大選的首相。這是英國曆史至關重要的時刻，但是由於史密斯的另一場心臟病，這一切差點沒有發生。

Back in 1988, Smith had been an up-and-coming member of the Labour party when he suffered his first heart attack. Writing about it decades later, Tony Blair said that this first incident had been brought on by Smith's excessive drinking. Smith was known to enjoy several pints a day and to lead a massively unhealthy lifestyle on top of that. This first heart attack could have served as a warning. It could have encouraged him to stop drinking or to exercise more. It almost certainly should have. Instead, Smith went right back to the bottle. It was a decision that almost certainly contributed to his second, fatal heart attack six years later. Had Smith lived, history would be very different. While the Labour Party would have probably still won the 1997 and 2001 elections (albeit with a lower vote share), the largely anti-interventionist Smith definitely would not have joined the US in invading Iraq. As America's only partner in 2003, it's conceivable that lack of UK support could have stopped the Iraq War from happening at all. In that case, global politics would now look very different.

回到1988年，當史密斯首次發現心臟病時，他還是日見重要的工黨成員。幾十年後，託尼·布萊爾寫到此事時，提及史密斯首次心臟病發是由於飲酒過度。史密斯每天喝幾品脫酒已經不是什麼祕密了，除此之外他的生活方式也十分不健康。第一次心臟病發本該成爲警告，讓他停止喝酒或是多做做運動。事情本該如此，可是史密斯反其道而行。這也幾乎決定了他六年後會死於心臟病。如果史密斯活着，歷史將會截然不同。工黨可能仍舊會在1997到2001年的大選中獲勝（雖然選票會少一些），極度反對干涉他國內政的史密斯絕對不會參與美軍入侵伊拉克的戰爭。英國是2003年美國唯一的盟友，可以想象，如果沒有英國的支持，伊拉克戰爭根本不可能爆發。那樣的話，全球政治格局也將與今天大相徑庭。

審校：suyiee 來源：前十網