研究：歐洲的封鎖措施已拯救了320萬人

英國的一項研究估計，如果沒有采取封鎖措施，截至五月初歐洲將會有320萬人因新冠病毒而喪命。與此同時，美國的另一項研究指出，中國、韓國、伊朗、法國和美國的封鎖措施已拯救了5.3億個生命。

Lockdowns have saved more than three million lives from coronavirus in Europe, a study estimates.
一項研究估計，歐洲的封鎖措施使得三百多萬人免遭死於新冠肺炎的命運。

The team at Imperial College London said the "death toll would have been huge" without lockdown.
帝國理工學院的研究團隊稱，如果沒有實行封鎖，“死亡人數會很多”。

But they warned that only a small proportion of people had been infected and we were still only "at the beginning of the pandemic".
但是他們警告稱，只有一小部分人被感染了，“這場疫情纔剛開始”。

Another study argued global lockdowns had "saved more lives, in a shorter period of time, than ever before".
另外一項研究指出，全球性的封鎖措施“在比以往都更短的時間內拯救了更多生命”。

The Imperial study assessed the impact of restrictions in 11 European countries - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK - up to the beginning of May.
帝國理工學院的這項研究評估了奧地利、比利時、丹麥、法國、德國、意大利、挪威、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士和英國這11個歐洲國家的封鎖限制措施截至五月初的效果。

By that time, around 130,000 people had died from coronavirus in those countries.
截至五月初，這些國家約有13萬人已死於新冠肺炎。

The researchers used disease modelling to predict how many deaths there would have been if lockdown had not happened. And the work comes from the same group that guided the UK's decision to go into lockdown.
研究人員運用疾病模型來預測，如果沒有封鎖措施，會有多少人死亡。這項研究是由指導英國採取封鎖決定的同一團隊開展的。

They estimated 3.2 million people would have died by 4 May if not for measures such as closing businesses and telling people to stay at home.
他們估計，如果沒有采取停業居家令等措施，5月4日前可能有320萬人死亡。

That meant lockdown saved around 3.1 million lives, including 470,000 in the UK, 690,000 in France and 630,000 in Italy, the report in the journal Nature shows.
這項發表在《自然》期刊上的研究報告顯示，這意味着封鎖措施拯救了約310萬條生命，包括英國的47萬人、法國的69萬人、意大利的63萬人。

"Lockdown averted millions of deaths, those deaths would have been a tragedy," said Dr Seth Flaxman, from Imperial.
來自帝國理工學院的賽斯·弗拉克斯曼博士說：“封鎖措施避免了數百萬人死亡，否則，這些人的死亡將會是悲劇。”

Their equations made several assumptions, which will affect the figures.
他們的運算方式做了幾個可能會影響數據的假設。

They assume nobody would have changed their behaviour in response to the Covid threat without a lockdown - and that hospitals would not be overwhelmed resulting in a surge in deaths, which nearly happened in some countries.
他們假設在沒有實行封鎖的情況下，沒有人會改變自身行爲來應對疫情，並假設不會因醫院不堪重負而導致死亡率暴增，而這一情形在一些國家差點發生了。

The study also does not take into account the health consequences of lockdowns that may take years to fully uncover.
這項研究也沒有將封鎖對健康的影響考慮在內，這些影響可能要等多年過後纔會完全顯現。

The model also predicted that the outbreak would be nearly over by now without lockdown, as so many people would have been infected.
該模型還預測，如果沒有封鎖措施，疫情可能已經接近尾聲，因爲很多人都已經被感染。

More than seven in 10 people in the UK would have had Covid, leading to herd immunity and the virus no longer spreading.
在這種假設下，英國百分之七十以上的人都已感染新冠病毒，結果就是羣體免疫，病毒也不再傳播。

Instead, the researchers estimate that up to 15 million people across Europe had been infected by the beginning of May.
研究人員估計，按此預測，到五月初歐洲各國會有多達1500萬人已感染病毒。

The researchers say at most, 4% of the population in those countries had been infected.
研究人員表示，如今這些國家至多有4%的人口被感染。

"Claims this is all over can be firmly rejected. We are only at the beginning of this pandemic," said Dr Flaxman.
弗拉克斯曼博士說：“我們可以堅決地否定疫情已經結束的論調。現在這場疫情纔剛剛開始。”

And it means that as lockdowns start to lift, there is the risk the virus could start to spread again.
這意味着隨着封鎖措施開始解除，病毒又可能開始傳播。

"There is a very real risk if mobility goes back up there could be a second wave coming reasonably soon, in the next month or two," said Dr Samir Bhatt.
薩米爾·巴特博士說：“如果人口流動性增加，這一風險真的很大，不久後（一兩個月以後）可能會暴發第二輪疫情。”

mobility[moʊˈbɪləti]: n. 流動性

Meanwhile, a separate study by University of California, Berkeley, analysed the impact of lockdowns in China, South Korea, Iran, France and the US.
與此同時，加州大學伯克利分校的一項獨立研究分析了中國、韓國、伊朗、法國和美國封鎖的效果。

Their report, also in Nature, says lockdown prevented 530 million infections in those countries.
這份同樣發表在《自然》期刊上的研究報告稱，這些國家的封鎖措施防止了5.3億人被感染。

Just before lockdowns were introduced, they said cases were doubling every two days.
據稱，就在採取封鎖措施前，這些國家的病例每兩天就翻一番。

Dr Solomon Hsiang, one of the researchers, said coronavirus had been a "real human tragedy" but the global action to stop the spread of the virus had "saved more lives, in a shorter period of time, than ever before".
其中一名研究人員所羅門·向博士表示，新冠病毒是一個“真正的人類悲劇”，但是阻止病毒傳播的全球行動已經“在比以往都更短的時間內拯救了更多生命”。