貿易戰是否會給中國金融科技造成傷害

隨着中美貿易戰的持續，這場衝突有可能讓工業蒙受損失的報導紛至沓來。許多專家認爲，貿易戰將對中國經濟產生嚴重負面影響，中國將面臨經濟減速和高負債。因爲美國加徵對華關稅而成本上升的行業包括電子、化工和塑料，而中國的報復措施也會增加消費者的支出，特別是在農產品和鋼鐵產品方面。到目前爲止，關稅還沒有指向任何服務行業，但這不意味着服務業會毫髮無損。貿易衝突加劇對中國金融科技業有什麼影響呢？

As the US-China trade war continues, reports of industries potentially damaged by the skirmish are rolling in. Many experts believe that the trade war will have a strongly negative effect on China's economy, which is facing an economic slowdown and high levels of debt. Industries that face higher costs due to US tariffs on China include the electronics, chemicals, and plastics industries. Chinese retaliation will raise costs for its consumers, especially in the areas of agriculture and steel products. So far, tariffs haven't been placed on any service sectors, but this doesn't mean that service sectors will go entirely unscathed. What might happen to the Chinese fintech industry as a result of the growing trade conflict?

中國的金融科技行業包括電子支付、消費者及小企業貸款、網上理財、互聯網保險等類別。該行業在很大程度上迎合中低層消費者的需求，而中國政府希望他們購買更多商品，彌補出口下滑和固定資產投資的下降。金融科技與中國的電子商務和互聯網相關產業一樣，正在以比其他產業更快的速度增長，是重要的經濟增長點。

China's fintech industry includes sectors like digital payments, consumer and small firm lending, online wealth management, and online insurance. The industry caters in large part to lower and middle class consumers that China's government is hoping will purchase more goods to make up for a declining export sector and waning fixed asset investment. The fintech industry, along with China's e-commerce and internet-related industries, is growing at a faster rate than the rest of the economy. Therefore, it is an important source of growth.

許多中國購物者在網上購買外國商品，因爲這些商品的質量更好。2017年，中國的在線跨境零售支出估計爲1000億美元，中國的在線跨境銷售總額估計爲1400億美元。由於出現額外費用，網上買家和賣家在買賣被列入關稅清單的商品時將面臨更高的價格，這有可能導致買賣雙方的交易額下降，在外國電子零售市場上的電子支付交易減少。Paypal的一項調查發現，從美國購買商品的時候，大多數中國消費者對質量更敏感，對價格卻不那麼敏感。但這不意味着一旦發現可以從其他渠道購買高質量產品，他們不會轉向其他賣家，而這肯定會讓高科技產品銷售商的利益受損。

Many Chinese shoppers purchase foreign goods online due to their better quality. Chinese cross-border online retail spending was estimated at about $100 billion in 2017, and Chinese cross-border online sales in total were estimated to be $140 billion. Online sellers and shoppers buying or selling goods in the tariff categories will see costs go up as the additional fees are imposed. This is likely to result in reduced sales for both buyers and sellers, and therefore fewer digital payment transactions with regard to foreign e-tail (electronic retailing) markets. While a survey by Paypal found that most Chinese shoppers may be more quality-sensitive and less price-sensitive in buying goods from the US, this doesn't mean they won't look to other sellers if they can purchase quality products elsewhere. It will certainly harm sellers of high-tech products.

此外，貿易戰會給整個中國經濟帶來衝擊。關稅成本的上升將加大中國保持經濟增長、減少企業債務的難度。這兩個因素，加上監管機構推動高水平債務去槓桿，有可能讓金融經濟的流動性減少。因此，我們預計貸款的提供會減少，而且不僅銀行業想必如此，貸款減少也會擴大到在線貸款領域，後者可能會着手從正規金融機構或其他個人及公司籌資。由於資金不足，可以提供給消費者和小企業的貸款也會下降。所以該行業無疑會受到負面影響。

In addition, there will be knock-on effects throughout China's economy from the trade war. Increased costs from tariffs will contribute to China's struggle to maintain economic growth and reduce corporate debt. These two factors, coupled with a regulatory push to deleverage high levels of debt, are likely to reduce liquidity in the economy. As a result, we can expect available loans to decline. It seems highly plausible that this would extend not only to the banking sector, but also to the online lending sector, which may start to channel funds from formal financial institutions or from other individuals and firms. As there is less money to go around, there will be fewer loans available to consumers and small businesses. Undoubtedly, this will negatively impact the sector.

人們手中的資金少了，他們投入網上財富管理服務的錢就會更少。中國的網上財富管理服務允許用戶把他們的錢投向貨幣市場基金和組合基金。例如，阿里巴巴爲網上購物者提供餘額寶服務，好讓他們把餘錢投給一隻貨幣市場基金；宜信公司的母基金則覆蓋多種資產類型。這些投資渠道越來越受歡迎，因爲中國幾乎沒有其他穩定、回報率高的投資場所。由於貿易戰的負面影響，可以用來進行私人投資的資金或許會縮減。

As people have fewer funds, they are also likely to invest less through online wealth management services. China's online wealth management services allow users to invest in assets like money market funds and funds of funds. For example, Alibaba offers Yu'e Bao for online shoppers to invest some of their leftover cash in a money market fund, while Creditease offers a fund of funds covering a variety of asset categories. These investment outlets have become increasingly popular, since China has few other investment outlets with stable and strong returns. Due to the negative effect of the trade war, available funds for private investment may decline.

如果整體經濟活動放緩，互聯網保險也有可能受影響。衆安保險等在線保險公司推出與網購密切相關的產品，例如衆安的電商產品退貨保險，以及通過攜程旅行網購買的旅遊保險。由於電子商務受影響，衆安保險這樣的公司也會受到波及。

Online insurance is also likely to be affected, if overall economic activity slows. Online insurance companies like Zhongan Insurance have created products that are closely tied to online purchases. For example, Zhongan offers insurance covering e-commerce product returns as well as travel insurance that can be purchased through Ctrip, a travel website. As e-commerce is affected, companies like Zhongan Insurance will also be affected.

儘管中國服務業在中美貿易戰中還沒有成爲直接的徵稅目標，但由於與美國的跨境業務放緩、經濟減速加劇以及信貸緊縮，金融科技服務也會受到不利影響。不過，中國政府已經敏銳地覺察貿易戰的波及面，正努力幫助中國企業尋找採購與銷售替代市場。這是一項艱鉅的任務，因爲關稅種類實在太多。與通過傳統方式買賣的商品一樣，中國電商最終也可能離開美國的產品和消費者，轉向歐洲或亞洲市場。這個轉換過程將有助於中國的電子商務體系渡過難關，減輕與在線活動密切相關的金融科技行業受到的不利影響。

Even though China's services industry is not yet directly subject to tariffs in the US-China trade war, fintech services are likely to be adversely impacted due to a slowdown in cross-border business with the US and a worsened economic slowdown and credit crunch. The government is acutely aware of the ramifications of the trade war, however, and is attempting to help Chinese firms find alternative markets to source from and sell to. This is a prodigious task, as the tariff categories are numerous. As with goods that are traded via traditional means, China's e-commerce sector may end up turning away from American products and consumers and toward European or Asian markets. This process of switching markets will help to buoy China's e-commerce regime and reduce the negative effects felt by the fintech industry, which closely complements online activity.

但從短期看，中美貿易戰的不利影響似乎難以避免。與中國許多其他行業一樣，金融科技很可能要經受這場貿易戰的負面衝擊。

In the short run, however, it seems there is no escaping the unfavorable effects of the US-China trade war. It is highly likely that the fintech sector, like many other sectors in China, will be adversely impacted by the conflict.