意大利本世紀末或被海水淹沒大綱

如果海平面上升一米……你能想象現在的沿海旅遊城市會變成什麼樣子嗎？研究發現，到本世紀末，意大利有可能完全被淹沒。

The rise in the sea level will change the morphology of the Italian coasts over the next 80 years, a study found.
一項研究發現，海平面上升將在今後80年改變意大利海岸的形態。

And up to 5,500 square kilometres of coastal plains could end up under water – meaning Italy could be completely submerged by the end of the century.
而且，多達5500平方公里的海岸平原最終會淹入水下。這意味着到本世紀末，意大利有可能完全被淹沒。

A study by the Laboratory of Climate Modelling and the journal Quaternary Science Reviews focused on four sensitive areas of the Italian peninsula which will feel the impact of rising sea levels. These were the North Adriatic, the Gulf of Taranto, the Gulf of Oristano and the Gulf of Cagliari.
氣候模擬實驗室和《第四紀科學評論》開展的這項研究聚焦意大利半島的4個敏感區域——北亞得里亞海、塔蘭託灣、奧里斯塔諾灣和卡利亞里灣，它們將感到海平面上升的影響。

The analysis took into account the most recent projections of sea-level rise between a minimum of 53cm and a maximum of 97cm, also including the effects due to geological and geomorphological changes.
分析結果考慮了海平面上升幅度最新預測結果，這一結果認爲海平面上升幅度將在53釐米至97釐米之間，還考慮了地質和地貌改變的影響等。

Fabrizio Antonioli, the director of research at the Laboratory of Climate Modelling told National Geographic Italian: “The coast is flat and there are no dunes to act as a natural barrier. Some areas are already close to or below the sea level.”
氣候模擬實驗室研究負責人法布里齊奧•安東尼奧利對《國家地理》（意大利文版）說：“海岸平坦，沒有沙丘充當天然屏障……有些區域已接近甚至低於海平面。”

Experts suggest that the way to solve the issue is that governments will need to improve the efficiency of the dams to protect the coasts.
專家表示，要解決這個問題，政府需提高堤壩保護海岸的有效性。

If no reinforcement measures are implemented in the near future, the cities of Aquileia, Ravenna and Rovigo will be at risk of flooding while the coastline could arrive less than 10km from Ferrara.
如果近期不採取加固措施，阿奎萊亞、拉韋納和羅維戈等城市將面臨洪災危險，同時海岸線可能退到距費拉拉不到10公里的地方。

Climate change experts fear that by the year 2100, the maximum elevation calculated will be approximately 101 cm above the current sea level for the North Adriatic.
氣候變化專家擔心，到2100年，北亞得里亞海的海平面最高將超過當前海平面101釐米左右。

Furthermore, it will be 96cm for the Gulf of Cagliari, 95cm for Oristano and 92cm for the Gulf of Taranto.
而且，卡利亞里灣、奧里斯塔諾灣和塔蘭託灣的海平面將分別上升96釐米、95釐米和92釐米。

The coastline near Venice could also go back 30 kilometres and the area between Trieste and Venice is one of the most vulnerable.
威尼斯附近的海岸線也會後退30公里，的裏雅斯特和威尼斯之間的區域將成爲最脆弱的區域之一。

It is estimated that in Europe there are about 86 million people living within 10 km from the coast.
據估計，歐洲有大約8600萬人居住在距離海岸不到10公里的地區。

In Italy, as well as in the rest of the Mediterranean region, 70 percent of the population live in the coastal area.
在意大利和地中海其他區域，70%的人口居住在濱海地區。

Italian shores are also home to major business establishments and the epicentre of thriving tourist activities.
意大利海岸還有大量的大型商業場所，這裏也是繁榮的旅遊中心。

All these activities will be increasingly threatened by coastal erosion and the risk of flooding.
這些都將日益受到海岸侵蝕和洪災風險的威脅。