里約奧運會 英國爲何獎牌大豐收大綱

Sir John Major has salvaged his reputation through the clever public-relations ruse of sitting around, mainly in The Oval, while history notices his good work. The high politics of his premiership has aged gracefully.

英國前首相約翰•梅傑(John Major，見上圖)在閒坐時——大部分是在橢圓形體育場(The Oval)——想出的巧妙公關策略挽回了自己的聲望，而歷史記住了他的功績。隨着時間的推移，他擔任首相期間的高階政治顯得越來越高明。

He kept Britain out of the euro. He established the fundaments of the Northern Ireland peace accord. He fought a war in the Gulf that did not become a protracted vision of hell.

他讓英國留在了歐元區之外。他爲達成北愛爾蘭和平協議奠定了基礎。他領導英國參加了海灣戰爭，而這場戰爭並未變成一幕漫長的噩夢景象。

Britain’s resurgence as an Olympic nation, its near-primacy in Rio trace-able to funds from a lottery he set up in 1994, polishes off his arc from national punchline to quiet respectability to the last retired prime minister who can walk into a pub without provoking a wince of pity or a citizen’s arrest.

英國重新崛起爲一個奧運強國，藉助梅傑在1994年設立的彩票所提供的資金在里約奧運的獎牌榜上名列前茅，成了他從全國笑料昇華爲受人默默敬重的前首相的弧線上的點睛之筆，如今他是可以信步邁入一家酒吧、而不致招來憐憫眼神甚至“公民逮捕”的最後一位退休首相

Twenty years ago, Britain consoled itself with gallows humour as it pipped Belarus to 36th place in the medal table of the Atlanta Games. By 2012, it was third, the natural ceiling for a country without the preponderance of China or America. It is now impudently defying that limit in second place. At the start of this week, even a merged mega-state of France and Germany would still trail Britain.

20年前，當英國在亞特蘭大奧運獎牌榜上僅以微弱優勢超過白俄羅斯排名第36位時，它只能用黑色幽默安慰自己。到2012年，英國的排名已升至第三，這是一個沒有像中國或美國那樣實力的國家所能達到的天然上限。如今，在里約奧運會，英國居然超越了這一極限，獲得的獎牌（包括金牌）數目一度超過了中國，排名升至了第二。截至本週初，甚至法德兩國合起來的獎牌數都落在英國後面。

As a case study of total and intended success, of a top-down project going to plan, there is little to match this in the annals of British technocracy. Among the wider lessons for government is that money matters. Athletes were victims of a national make-do-and-mend culture that was presumably meant to be charming. They now have expensive coaches, specialised infrastructure and enough direct income to give up other work. There was never a costless route to their present eminence, which the left can cite as a kind of social democracy in action.

作爲一項全面且符合初衷的成功（一項自上而下的項目按計劃結出碩果）的案例，奧運獎牌豐收在英國技術官僚制度的史冊上是難以找到先例的。對政府來說，這件事的普遍教訓是資金很重要。以往英國運動員是“修補一下湊合着用”的國家文化的受害者，這種文化的本意想必是爲了表現得灑脫。如今這一代運動員有高薪聘請的教練、專門的訓練設施以及足以讓他們放棄其他工作的直接收入。要達到他們現在所處的榮耀地位，不花錢的途徑是從來不存在的；左翼人士可以援引此例說明，社會民主制度是管用的。

Before the implications for public services seem too plain, conservatives should speak up. Investment galvanised British athletics but so did a pitiless elitism. UK Sport, the distributor of lottery funds that was set up in the last months of Sir John’s government, sifted winners from the rest. Money went to plausible finalists and medallists. Even then it was conditional on performance metrics. Lots of dedicated but limited competitors were left to fall out of the system.

在這一點對公共服務的潛在影響變得太明顯之前，保守黨人應大膽直言。投資刺激了英國的競技體育，但無情的精英主義也起到了作用。在梅傑政府最後幾個月期間成立的英國體育局(UK Sport)負責分配彩票資金，該局從大量運動員中遴選出勝者。資金流向有希望進入決賽並獲得獎牌的選手。即使那樣，待遇也是以成績爲條件的。很多敬業但能力有限的參賽者被這一體制淘汰。

The read-across to public administration is performance-related pay, not a rise for every teacher, and hospital league tables, not an article of credulous faith that all providers do an equally fabulous job. The state cannot allow for pure meritocracy and outright failure as sport can. It has a duty of universal provision. But public expenditure tied to strict invigilation of standards — a meeting of New Labour largesse and Sir John’s Citizen’s Charter — is a bipartisan settlement that is always almost -happening.

公共管理部門從中應該汲取的經驗是績效工資（而不是每位老師都加薪）和醫院排行榜（而不是盲目相信所有提供商都做得同樣出色）。國家不能像體育那樣允許出現純粹的精英治理和徹底的失敗。國家負有照顧全民的普遍義務。但受制於嚴格監督標準的公共支出——新工黨的慷慨與梅傑的公民憲章(Citizen’s Charter)倡議相遇——是一個永遠近乎達成的兩黨共識。

Even the politicians newly taken with industrial policy have something to crib from our Olympic model. Although Max Whitlock took Britain’s historic total of gymnastic golds from zero to two in the time it takes to watch a film, UK Sport generally builds on areas of strength instead of planting greatness where it has never flowered. The British specialisms are cycling, rowing and bits of track and field. The economic equivalents are financial services, higher education and sophisticated manufactures. It would be nice to win at beach volleyball but then it would be nice to make steel at competitive prices. Neither warrants throwing good and scarce money after bad.

就連那些新近對產業政策產生興趣的政客們，也可以借鑑我們的奧運模式。儘管馬克斯•惠特洛克(Max Whitlock)僅用看一場電影的時間就將英國體操歷史上的金牌數從零提升至兩塊，但英國體育局通常只看重優勢項目，而不是在從未開花結果的項目上爲將來的偉大成就播種。英國運動員擅長的是自行車、賽艇以及少量田徑項目。其在經濟上對應的是金融服務、高等教育和高端製造。贏得沙灘排球將是好事，但如果能以有競爭力的價格生產鋼鐵也是好事。這兩個領域都不值得投入寶貴的資金追逐較小的希望。

If investment under a discriminating eye is the technical lesson of Britain’s Olympic story, there is a moral too. Anything worth doing takes time to show up in tangible results. In that lag, the authors of the change may be supplanted by do-nothings who reap all the glory. Voters were relaxed about ditching Conservative for Labour rule in 1997 precisely because of the economic tranquility that was hard earned by the outgoing government’s structural reforms.

如果說帶着挑剔的眼光投資是英國奧運成功的技術經驗，那麼還有一條道義上的經驗。任何值得做的事情都需要時間才能展現出實實在在的成果。由於這一時間差，變革的始作俑者可能被那些收穫所有榮耀卻什麼都沒做的人取代。1997年，英國選民輕鬆地放棄保守黨，轉而選擇工黨，恰恰是因爲保守黨執政期間推行的結構性改革好不容易實現了經濟穩定。

The Tories were helped to victory at the most recent election by an NHS that, improved by years of Labour money, experienced no winter crisis of capacity. Even the London Games, won by a Labour government in 2005, fostered enough national bonhomie to see the Conservatives through the economic stagnation and botched Budgets of 2012.

保守黨依託英國國家醫療服務體系(NHS)的表現贏得了最近的大選，而NHS恰恰是在工黨執政期間多年大舉投入之下改進了表現，近年沒有出現冬季接診能力危機。就連工黨政府2005年申辦成功的倫敦奧運，也培育了足夠的舉國歡欣鼓舞，讓保守黨政府挺過了經濟停滯以及2012年的糟糕預算。

Serious governments are self-abnegating. They know that difficult decisions bring immediate infamy and deferred, if any, acclaim. The trick is to trust history to reach the right verdict in the end. Behind Whitlock, Mo Farah, Sir Bradley Wiggins and the embarrassment of riches slung around their necks are some less famous deeds by some less storied people, including the prime minister of an extravagantly hated government more than 20 years ago. If only to incentivise all politicians to take the long view, we should say so.

認真的政府需要自我否定。他們知道，艱難的決定會立刻帶來惡名，並使讚揚（如果有的話）來得更晚。關鍵在於相信歷史最終將作出公正的定論。在惠特洛克、莫•法拉(Mo Farah)、布拉德利•威金斯爵士(Sir Bradley Wiggins)以及他們脖子上掛着的獎牌背後，是一些不那麼赫赫有名的人物的不那麼出名的事蹟，包括20多年前受人憎恨的保守黨政府的首相。哪怕只是爲了激勵所有政客把眼光放長遠，我們也應該這麼說。