中国私募股权调整收购目标

Like impatient drivers, money flows seek out new routes when existing ones are blocked. The $1bn purchase of Dick Clark Productions, the US producer of shows including the Golden Globe Awards, by China’s Dalian Wanda was officially canned this month. Similarly, the sale to a Chinese buyer of a lithium project in Mali was scrapped in January when capital proved hard to export. As overseas acquisitions become increasingly challenging amid Beijing’s clampdown on moving money offshore, expect trapped funds to find new targets — notably in private deals.

与不耐烦的司机一样，资金流动在现有通道堵塞之后会寻找新的通道。中国大连万达(Dalian Wanda)以10亿美元收购举办金球奖(Golden Globe awards)的美国迪克?克拉克制片公司(Dick Clark Productions)的交易，本月正式告吹。同样，由于事实证明资本很难输出，今年1月马里一个锂项目出售给中国买家的交易也被取消。随着中国政府打击资金外流，海外收购变得日益困难，此际，预计受困的资金会寻找新的目标，尤其是在私募股权交易中。

China’s private equity universe has already been growing. Preqin, an alternative asset data provider, says that venture capital deal volumes in Greater China began to rival those of the US as early as 2015. On Thursday, consultant Bain & Co noted that growth in investment has been especially strong for Chinese start-up firms. Nearly one-fifth of early-stage PE investments worldwide, around $15bn, were made in China.

中国私募股权行业已经在增长。另类资产数据提供商Preqin表示，大中华区的风险资本交易规模都快赶得上美国在2015年的规模了。从事咨询业务的贝恩公司(Bain & Co)本周四指出，对中国初创企业的投资增长尤其强劲。全球近五分之一的私募股权早期阶段投资发生在中国，规模约为150亿美元。

The flood of money has inevitably affected valuations. While multiples of enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for PE deals in the US averaged 10 times, in Asia-Pacific that figure was 17. According to both Preqin and Bain, a majority of PE investors are concerned about valuations.

资金流动不可避免地影响了估值。尽管美国私人股本交易所投资企业以息税折旧及摊销前利润计算的市盈率平均是10倍，但亚太地区的这个数字是17倍。Preqin和贝恩的数据均显示，绝大多数私募股权投资者对估值问题感到关切。

In China, prices are even more stretched. Acquisition multiples in 2016 were nearly 30 times, up from 26 in 2015. Buyers including insurers — which invest their own capital rather than having to satisfy external investors — competed with PE firms to push up prices.

在中国，估值甚至更离谱。2016年收购市盈率接近30倍，而2015年为26倍。包括保险公司——保险公司使用自有资本投资而不用满足外部投资者——在内的的买家与私募股权公司竞争推升了价格。

Elevated valuations are unlikely to return to reasonable levels soon. Two of the four largest funds currently raising capital originate in China. With overseas acquisitions under scrutiny at home and facing protectionism abroad, still more Chinese companies will be seeking out domestic targets.

已经抬高的估值不太可能很快回到合理水平。在目前筹资的4大基金当中，有两家源于中国。随着海外收购面临国内审查和国外保护主义的阻挠，还会有更多中国公司寻求国内收购目标。

Those not restricted to China might want to look elsewhere in Asia. Japan, for instance, is drawing investors for its relatively cheap valuations and improved corporate governance.

那些不被限制为只能投资中国的人可能想要考虑其他亚洲国家。例如，日本以其相对低廉的估值和良好的公司治理吸引了投资者的兴趣。