澳佳宝该担心中国海淘税吗

The risk with small companies is that they may never get big. Australian investors jumped into several small companies last year, making them a lot larger in terms of market value. Now, they worry that revenues and profits may not catch up — especially where growth is closely linked to China.

小公司的风险在于他们可能永远不会变成大公司。澳大利亚的投资者去年蜂拥投资了几家小公司，令它们的市值涨了很多。现在，他们担心这些公司的收入和盈利可能跟不上预期——尤其是在增长高度依赖中国的情况下。

Blackmores, the health supplement producer, is one such name. Last year it returned 470 per cent against a mining-dominated local benchmark that was down nearly a tenth. On Tuesday, it took a pounding on confirmation that China is raising taxes on foreign goods bought over the internet and shipped through free trade zones.

保健品生产商澳佳宝(Blackmores)就是这样一家公司。去年它的股价飙涨470%，而澳大利亚以矿商为主的基准股指下降了近十分之一。周二，该公司股价受到重创，原因是中国将提高跨境电商通过自由贸易区配送的境外商品所需缴纳的税率。

Chinese shoppers are price conscious, so news that the cost of goods they buy over the internet might rise is of concern. Bears also suggest this may herald more general regulatory scrutiny of such wares. But, as JPMorgan points out, the effective change so far is minimal. On transaction sizes most applicable to ordinary retail buyers, the tax rises from 10 per cent to 12 per cent — still lower than the 17 per cent value added tax payable in Chinese shops. There are also exemptions for certain goods. Phillips Capital says none of Blackmores’ products are affected.

中国消费者的价格意识较强，因此有关他们网上购物成本将上涨的消息令人担忧。悲观人士还提出，这可能意味着对此类商品更为广泛的审查。然而，正如摩根大通(JPMorgan)所指出的，迄今为止实际变化很小。从适用于普通消费者的多数交易规模来说，税率从10%提升至12%——仍低于在中国国内商店消费所需缴纳的17%的增值税。而且对特定货物还能豁免。辉立资本(Phillips Capital)表示，澳佳宝的产品并未受到影响。

More than price, Chinese shoppers are conscious of quality. Goods sourced overseas are popular, particularly consumables related to health, because production standards are perceived to be more stringent. Blackmores has benefited from this. For the six months ended December, the company estimates that two-fifths of revenues were from China. That one country now contributes more sales than all of Asia did two years ago.

不仅是价格，中国消费者还关心商品质量。海购商品很受欢迎，尤其是健康相关的消费品，因为人们普遍认为国外的生产标准更严格。澳佳宝正得益于此。该公司估计，去年下半年营收的五分之二来自中国。如今中国贡献的销售额超越了两年前整个亚洲的销售额。

After such a stellar run, Blackmores shares had got ahead of themselves, but at 23 times next year’s earnings for 26 per cent growth, some of the regulatory risk is now discounted. The question is how much. The company will weather this storm, but the next one — if it comes to pass — may put a bigger dent in its valuation.

在出现如此大幅的涨势后，澳佳宝的股价有点超前了，但鉴于股价是明年预期盈利的23倍、而增长达到26%，一部分监管风险已被计入价格。问题是多少。该公司会渡过这场风暴，但下一场风暴（如果出现的话）可能对其估值有更大打击。