匯改十年 中國仍堅守謹慎監管之路
What a long, strange trip it has been for the renminbi since the Chinese government ended the exchange rate’s strict peg to the US dollar 10 years ago this week.
自10年前中國政府放棄盯住美元的匯率制度以來，人民幣經歷了一段相當漫長而又奇特的旅程。
At the time, economists hailed the event as a landmark step towards allowing market forces to set the exchange rate and a concession to trading partners who complained that the currency was undervalued. They were not wrong.
當時，經濟學家們稱讚此舉是向着允許市場力量決定匯率的目標邁出的具有里程碑意義的一步，也是對抱怨人民幣估值偏低的貿易伙伴做出的讓步。他們並未説錯。
Yet a decade later, it is striking that while the renminbi has appreciated by a third, government intervention remains a daily reality. While economists expect further steps by the Chinese government to loosen its grip on both the exchange rate and cross-border capital flows, the pace of change over the next 10 years is likely to be slower than in the last.
然而10年後，令人吃驚的是，雖然人民幣已經升值三分之一，但政府幹預仍是司空見慣。儘管經濟學家們期待中國政府將進一步採取措施，放鬆對匯率和跨境資本流動的控制，但未來10年的改革步伐很可能要慢於過去10年。
Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has made clear that his vision of “capital-account convertibility” — a term that normally refers to unrestricted cross-border fund flows — is compatible with keeping significant capital controls in place indefinitely. Mr Zhou also says he believes convertibility will be achieved by the end of this year. That is a signal that the most important changes have already been announced.
中國央行行長周小川已明確表示了自己的看法：“資本賬户自由兑換”(capital-account convertibility)——通常是指不受限制的跨境資金流動——與無限期保持可觀程度的資本管制並無矛盾。他還説，他相信今年底將實現自由兑換。這是一個信號，説明最重要的改革舉措都已經公佈了。
Just as July 2005 ushered in a period of “managed float” for the exchange rate, so the next decade will be characterised by “managed convertibility” for cross-border flows.
正如2005年7月開啟了“有管理浮動匯率制”時期一樣，未來10年的特徵將是對跨境資本流動實行“有管理的自由兑換”。
The underlying logic is clear: market reform is a tool to be deployed only when it delivers tangible benefits. But when such forces threaten to inflict pain on the economy, the government is ready and willing to intervene, as its heavy-handed response to the tumbling stock market also shows.
根本的邏輯很明確：市場化改革是一種工具，只有當它能帶來實際利益時才會派上用場。但當市場力量可能對經濟造成痛苦時，中國政府就準備而且願意介入，正如其對股市暴跌的強勢迴應所展示的。
The 2005 de-peg is another clear example. Chinese authorities believed a stronger currency would promote a rebalancing of the economy towards domestic consumption and away from reliance on investments and exports. But at the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, when stability was the overriding concern, the exchange rate was frozen for another two years.
2005年的脱鈎是又一個清晰的案例。中國當局相信，人民幣升值將會促進經濟再平衡，從依賴投資和出口轉向依賴國內消費。但是，2008年金融危機爆發後，當穩定成為壓倒一切的任務時，人民幣匯率又被凍結了兩年。
The performance of the Chinese currency this year is another reminder that the government’s commitment to market reforms is contingent on facts on the ground.
今年人民幣的表現再次提醒我們，中國政府對市場化改革的承諾取決於形勢。
Since late March, as various financial tempests have raged — unprecedented capital outflow from China, theGreek debt crisis, the stock market boom-bust — the renminbi has remained within a tight range around 6.20 to 6.22 per dollar.
自3月下旬以來，雖然各種金融風暴相繼來襲——中國空前的資本外流、希臘債務危機以及股市大起大落——但人民幣兑美元匯率一直保持在1美元兑6.20至6.22元人民幣的狹窄區間。
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of global currencies, has fluctuated by more than 10 per cent from peak to trough in 2015. By contrast, the renminbi exchange rate has moved within a 1.4 per cent range. Since the start of April, renminbi volatility has been even smaller — about 0.5 per cent.
2015年以來，美元指數（衡量美元對一籃子貨幣匯率變化程度）從峯值至谷底的波動幅度超過了10%。相比之下，人民幣匯率僅在1.4%的區間內波動。自4月初以來，人民幣的波動幅度甚至更小，只有約0.5%。
Analysts say concern over capital outflows is a key reason that the central bank has tightened its grip on the exchange rate.
分析師們表示，對資本外流的擔憂是導致央行收緊匯率控制的關鍵原因之一。
Even as China ran a merchandise trade surplus worth $263bn in the first six months of 2015, its foreign exchange reserves fell by $150bn. That suggests that inflows from trade have been overwhelmed by investment outflows, a sign of flagging confidence.
即便中國2015年上半年商品貿易順差達到2630億美元之際，但其外匯儲備減少了1500億美元。這似乎表明，貿易帶來的資本流入趕不上投資資本的流出，這是信心不足的跡象。
If the People’s Bank of China allowed these moderate outflows to weaken the renminbi, that could encourage the outflows, leading to a vicious cycle.
如果中國央行允許這些規模不大的資本流出壓低人民幣匯率，那將會鼓勵資本外流，形成一個惡性循環。
Many of the exchange-rate reforms adopted over the past decade have had little impact on the government’s ability to control the exchange rate.
過去10年採取的許多匯率改革措施，對中國政府操控匯率的能力沒什麼影響。
In March 2014 the People’s Bank of China widened the band in which the renminbi trades against the dollar. Following this change, the spot exchange rate was permitted to fluctuate by 2 per cent above or below the central bank’s daily fixing, up from 1 per cent previously and just 0.3 per cent in 2005.
2014年3月，中國央行擴大了人民幣兑美元交易價浮動幅度。這意味着，即期匯率被允許在央行當日人民幣兑美元中間價上下2%的幅度內浮動，高於此前的1%，而2005年時的幅度僅為0.3%。
Yet the wider band hardly makes government intervention more difficult. The PBoC need only set its fixing farther away from the spot rate to achieve the same effect. That is exactly what it has done this year. The renminbi spot rate has traded weaker than the PBoC fix by an average of 1.5 per cent in 2015 — a gap that would not have been possible before March 2014.
然而，較寬浮動區間並未加大政府幹預的難度。中國央行只需將當日中間價設定在更加遠離即期匯率的水平，就可收到同樣的效果。這正是該行今年所做的。2015年，人民幣即期匯率交易價比央行的中間價平均低1.5%——這種差距在2014年3月之前是不可能出現的。
Yet the fact that the spot rate has traded weaker than the PBoC fixing every day since late November is a clear sign that the midpoint is acting as a constraint on market pressure for the currency to weaken.
然而，去年11月底以來，即期匯率天天低於央行設定的每日中間價，這是一個明確的跡象，説明央行的中間價起到了約束人民幣下行市場壓力的作用。
Analysts broadly agree that the Chinese government is likely to continue with incremental measures to reduce restrictions on cross-border capital flows and allow greater exchange rate flexibility.
分析師普遍認為，中國政府很可能繼續採取漸進措施，減少對跨境資本流動的限制，允許更大的匯率彈性。
Just last week the PBoC announced that foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds could invest in China’s domestic bond market without prior approval. Outbound flows will also be further liberalised, as authorities prepare a plan that will allow individual Chinese residents to directly purchase overseas financial assets for the first time.
日前，中國央行宣佈，外國央行和主權財富基金無需事先批准就可以投資中國國內債券市場。對外投資也將進一步放開，當局正在籌劃一項計劃，將首次允許中國居民個人直接購買海外金融資產。
Yet both these programmes will be subject to quota restrictions, a caveat that symbolises China’s resolutely cautious approach.
然而，這兩項計劃將受制於額度限制，這種“附帶條件”象徵着中國堅守的謹慎態度。
