何時賣掉一隻股票呢?大綱

You already know that frictional expenses can make buying and selling stock in rapid-trading fashion seriously lower your returns.

你已經瞭解了摩擦性成本會導致快速交易方式中買賣股票大大降低你的收益。

Still, there are times when you may want to part with one of your stock positions.

然而有時你可能想要捨棄一隻股票。

How do you know when it's time to say goodbye to a favorite stock?

你怎麼才能知道何時賣掉心愛的股票呢？

These helpful tips can make the call easier.

下面這些實用的建議能幫你更容易做決定。

-Earnings were not properly stated.

-未明確收益。

-Debt is growing too rapidly.

-債務增長過快

-New competition is likely to seriously harm the firm's profitability or competitive position in the marketplace.

-新的競爭有可能嚴重損害該公司的盈利能力或市場競爭地位。

-Management's ethics are questionable. Benjamin Graham said that "you cannot make a quantitative adjustment for unscrupulous management, only avoid it." In other words, it doesn't matter how cheap a stock is, if the executives are crooks, you are likely to get burned.

-管理規範有問題。本傑明·格雷厄姆說：“你不能對不擇手段的管理做出定量調整，只能規避。”也就是說無論該股票多便宜，如果高管是騙子，你都可能被殃及。

-The industry as a whole is doomed due to a commoditization of the product line.

-由於生產線的商品化導致整個產業註定要不行了。

-The market price of the stock has risen far faster than the underlying diluted earnings per share. Over time, this situation is not sustainable.

-該股票市場價格的上漲遠遠超出了潛在的稀釋每股收益。時間一長就撐不住了。

-You need the money in the near future – a few years or less. Although stocks are a marvelous long-term investment, short-term volatility can cause you to sell out an inopportune moment, locking in losses. Instead, park your cash in a safe investment such as a bank account or a money market fund.

-你最近幾年內或更短時間內需要錢。雖然股票作爲長期投資非常不錯，但短期波動會導致你賣股票的時間不合適，造成損失。相反，你所做的投資要能夠保證資金安全，如銀行存款或貨幣市場基金。

-You don't understand the business, what it does, or how it makes money.

-你不懂商業、它是做什麼的或者怎樣賺錢的。

One important note: History has shown that it is generally not a good idea to sell because of your expectations for macroeconomic conditions, such as the national unemployment rate or the government's budget deficit, or because you expect the stock market to decline in the short-term.

重要提示：歷史證明由於對宏觀經濟因素的預期就出售股票通常不是明智之舉，比如國家失業率或者政府的預算赤字，或者因爲你預計股票市場短期內會下跌。

Analyzing businesses and calculating their intrinsic value is relatively simple.

分析企業並計算他們的隱含價值纔是相對簡單之舉。

You have no chance of accurately predicting with any consistency the buy and sell decisions of millions of other investors with different financial situations and analytical abilities.

你並不能對數百萬其他投資者任何買進和賣出的決定做出準確的一致性預測，他們有着不同的財務狀況和分析能力。