如何投資中國股票

When Tsingtao Brewery listed in Hong Kong, its float was notable for two things: it was the first-ever H-share listing and its executives skipped the usual champagne to celebrate instead with their own brand beer.

當青島啤酒(Tsingtao Brewery)在香港上市的時候，有兩點引人注目：一個是它是有史以來發行的第一隻H股，另一個是其高管們沒有像通常那樣打開香檳慶祝，而且開啓了他們自己品牌的啤酒。

H-shares were the first offshore listings for companies incorporated in China and they turn 25 next year. Since then they have been joined by a universe of A-shares, B-shares, red chips, P-chips, S-chips and N-shares. Indices that cover China are equally varied in their form and coverage. This presents a problem for investors looking at the world’s second-biggest equity market: where to start?

H股是指那些在中國內地註冊、首先在海外上市的公司，明年是H股誕生25週年。自那以來，還出現了A股、B股、紅籌股、民企股、S股和N股。涵蓋中國市場的指數同樣形式多樣，涵蓋面各有不同。這讓尋求投資這個全球第二大股市的投資者感到頭疼：從哪裏下手呢？

How people choose to measure or benchmark a market is always subjective. Big markets can happily host indices tracking different universes. New York, for example, is home to the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the broad S&P 500 as well as the outdated but ever-present Dow Jones Industrial Average. But in China’s case, those differences are even more extreme because of the share class issues.

人們如何選擇衡量一個市場或者爲其確立市場基準始終帶有主觀性。大型市場能夠輕鬆地成爲追蹤不同領域的指數的所在地。例如，紐約有科技股雲集的納斯達克綜合指數(Nasdaq Composite)、覆蓋廣泛的標普500指數(S&P 500)以及過時但一直存在的道瓊斯工業平均指數(Dow Jones Industrial Average)。但就中國來說，由於股票類別問題，那些差異表現得更爲極端。

China’s habit of gradual experimentation with capital markets means there is not a single benchmark that can be used as a form of shorthand for the country’s overall listed universe as there is for New York with the S&P 500, Tokyo’s Topix or London’s FTSE 350. Follow MSCI’s China index, which includes H-shares and N-shares, and an investor is 37 per cent to the good this year. Track the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, the home of H-shares, and that gain shrinks to 17 per cent. Follow the CSI 300, covering the top 300 A-shares, and an investor is up 13 per cent.

中國習慣於在資本市場上漸進試驗，這意味着不會有可以代表中國整體上市公司的單一基準指數，比如紐約的標普500指數、東京的東證股價指數(Topix)或者倫敦的富時350指數(FTSE 350)那樣。追蹤包含H股和N股的MSCI明晟中國指數(MSCI China index)，投資者今年有37%的盈利。追蹤恆生中國企業指數（Hang Seng China Enterprises Index，即H股指數），收益縮水至17%。追蹤覆蓋規模最大的300家A股的滬深300指數(CSI 300 index)，投資者盈利13%。

Call it an equity market, or markets, with Chinese characteristics. A-shares are mainland-listed stocks quoted in renminbi. B-shares are a now almost extinct group of mainland stocks that were quoted in US or Hong Kong dollars and could be traded by foreigners as well as mainlanders. Red chips are Chinese state-owned enterprises listed in Hong Kong, quoted in Hong Kong dollars and incorporated outside China, giving them more freedom over their capital-raising than H-share companies which require official state approval to borrow or raise equity. ICBC and its Big Four bank peers are dual-listed H- and A-shares, but many fellow SoEs including China Mobile, PetroChina and Citic are red chips. P-chips such as Tencent are the private equivalent of red chips. S-chips are Chinese stocks listed in Singapore while N-shares are those listed in New York such as Alibaba — otherwise known, like other foreign listings, as American depositary receipts.

可以將其稱爲具有中國特色的股市或者市場。A股是指在中國內地上市、以人民幣計價的股票，現在幾乎所剩無幾的B股是指在中國內地上市、以美元或港幣計價的股票，外國人和內地人都可以買賣這些股票。紅籌股是指在香港上市、以港幣計價且在境外註冊的中國國有企業股票。與借貸或發股需要官方批准的H股相比，紅籌股有更大的融資自由度。中國工商銀行(ICBC)等四大行同時發行了H股和A股股票，但包括中國移動(China Mobile)、中石油(PetroChina)和中信(Citic)在內的許多國企是紅籌股。騰訊(Tencent)等民企股除民企身份以外，其餘特徵與紅籌股相同。S股是在新加坡上市的中資股，阿里巴巴(Alibaba)等N股是在紐約上市的中資股，又稱爲美國存託憑證(ADR)，代表在美國上市的外資公司。

In theory, the class distinctions shouldn’t matter for investors beyond what the various categories allow companies to do. But the divergence between the most widely followed indices show that this is not yet the case. Changes to indices happen only slowly, too. Last week Hang Seng Indexes, the benchmarker for Hong Kong-listed stocks, confirmed it would begin to add red chips to its H-share China Enterprises Index, which is considered the China benchmark for the Hong Kong market. The changes, adding 10 stocks to the 40 strong index, will not be completed until March 2019. In June, MSCI said that A-shares would be included in its benchmark Emerging Markets Index as of next year. The weighting of 0.73 per cent is small but it was a milestone that gave mainland stock markets their first international stamp of approval by in theory forcing the $1.5tn of funds that track the index to consider onshore stocks.

理論上，除了公司所屬不同類別所允許的行爲不同，不同類別股票的差異不應對投資者有影響。但投資者最普遍追蹤的幾種股指之間的表現差異表明事實並非如此。股指成分股的變動也非常緩慢。上週，香港上市股票的基準恆生指數(Hang Seng Index)證實，將開始把紅籌股納入其中國企業指數，後者被視爲香港股市上中資股的基準。這一變動將把10只股票納入一個由40多隻成份股組成的指數，要等到2019年3月才完成。今年6月，MSCI明晟表示，明年將把中國內地A股納入其基準新興市場指數(Emerging Markets Index)。0.73%的權重很小，但這是一個里程碑，標誌着中國內地股市首次獲得國際認可，從理論上來說，這將迫使追蹤該指數的1.5萬億美元資金將中國A股納入自己的考慮。

Scepticism about the quality of many Chinese companies remains high but interest in China is growing. As well as the efforts of index providers to capture China in investor-friendly ways, banks are scrambling to come up with bite-sized forms such as themed baskets of stocks with which to tempt investors. Tech and consumer-related stocks are hot, manufacturers and banks less so.

市場仍嚴重懷疑很多中國內地企業的質量，但對中國的興趣正在升溫。與指數供應商努力以對投資者有利的方式反映中國市場一樣，銀行正爭相推出容易入手的產品吸引投資者，例如主題股票籃子。科技和消費類股票火爆，而製造商和銀行則不那麼受歡迎。

Back when Tsingtao listed in 1993, China-related deals — which was as far as China themes went then — were new and intriguing. Its offering was 110 times subscribed and it jumped 28 per cent on its debut. Enthusiasm for Chinese companies soon faded in a wax-and-wane pattern that has repeated itself many times since, but because of the different share classes, it happens in different places at different times. The hunt for a genuine China benchmark continues.

1993年青島啤酒上市時，與中國內地相關的交易（這就是當時的中國主題了）新鮮且有趣。當時該公司的股票獲得110倍認購，上市首日股價大漲28%。對中國內地企業的熱情很快消退，此後多次出現這種大起大落，但由於不同的股票類別，發生的時間和地點有所不同。人們仍在尋找一個真正的中國市場基準。