國際投資者不懼中國股市泡沫

Concerns have resurfaced about a bubble building in China’s stock market, but international investors appear relaxed about the possibility of a correction.

有關中國股市正在形成泡沫的擔憂再度浮現，但國際投資者似乎並不擔心發生回調的可能性。

Their confidence comes despite explosive growth in China’s mainland stock market, which has more than doubled in size over the past 12 months. The Hong Kong-listed H-shares market has risen by a third over the same period.

他們對中國內地股市抱有信心，儘管該市場呈現爆炸性增長——其規模在過去12個月裏擴大了一倍以上。同期，香港上市的H股的市場規模擴大了三分之一。

Vanessa Donegan, head of Asian equities at Columbia Threadneedle, the fund house, admits dangers could be lurking, given the rapid rise in valuations. “The overseas investment community is cognisant there is a bubble building. One has to be quite careful,” she says.

基金公司天利投資(Columbia Threadneedle)亞洲股票主管瓦妮莎•多尼根(Vanessa Donegan)承認，鑑於中國股市估值迅速攀升，該市場可能潛存危險。她說：“海外投資界認識到這裏正在形成泡沫。投資者必須非常小心。”

The share price rally has been driven in part by Chinese retail investors turning to the stock market following the clampdown by regulators last year on the domestic wealth-product market. This trend has accelerated due to fears about oversupply in China’s housing market, pushing investors to shift their money elsewhere.

中國股價上漲有一部分是受中國散戶投資者的帶動，去年監管部門整頓國內理財產品市場後，這些投資者將目光轉向了股市。另外，由於擔心中國住房市場供應過剩，投資者不得不將資金轉向別處，這進一步推動了股市的上漲趨勢。

The extension of China’s Stock Connect programme to include the Rmb5tn ($806bn) Chinese mutual fund industry in March has helped funnel more cash into Hong Kong. The programme was introduced last November to allow investors in Hong Kong and Shanghai to trade in each other’s markets, but was initially only open to wealthy retail investors.

今年3月，中國的“滬港通”計劃擴大了範圍，將5萬億元人民幣（合8060億美元）的中國公募基金涵蓋在內，這已幫助將更多資金輸運到香港。該計劃於去年11月出臺，允許香港股市和上海股市的投資者在對方市場上進行交易，但最初只開放給富有的散戶投資者。

Ms Donegan says: “Often a rising tide of liquidity can lift all companies, bad and good, and [the share price of] China’s [state-owned enterprises] can move up pretty dramatically just on the idea of some reform.”

多尼根說：“通常情況下，流動性上升趨勢可拉昇所有的公司，不管是好的還是差的，而且中國（國有企業的股價）光靠改革的題材就能出現相當明顯的上漲。”

She joins a number of international fund managers who believe China’s share-price rally has some way to go, despite the country’s decelerating economic growth.

不少國際基金經理與多尼根觀點一致，他們相信中國的股價反彈還有一定空間，儘管中國經濟增長速度正在放緩。

It is difficult to get a handle on what is cheap or expensive; there could be an accident in the propertysector

至於哪支股便宜哪支貴，現在很難說，而房地產板塊可能會遭遇不測。

Many investors point to healthcare, pharmaceuticals, new energy and technology — notably ecommerce and robotics — as sectors less vulnerable to the bursting of a potential bubble.

許多投資者提到醫療保健、製藥、新能源以及科技——尤其是電子商務和機器人——板塊，認爲它們不那麼容易受到潛在泡沫破裂的衝擊。

Helen Zhu, head of China equities at BlackRock, the world’s biggest fund house, is particularly positive on Hong Kong-listed mid-cap banks, as well as property and utility companies. She is less convinced by companies in construction, capital goods, transport and energy.

全球最大基金公司貝萊德(BlackRock)的中國股票主管朱悅(Helen Zhu)尤其看好香港上市的中等市值銀行，以及房地產和公用事業公司。她對建築、資本品、運輸和能源板塊比較缺乏信心。

Investor faith is underpinned by the fact that China’s government is expected to carry out a radical overhaul of its state-owned assets, forcing companies in areas such as oil and banking to consolidate and list on public markets. The total number of state-run businesses could fall from around 140 today to a dozen, according to James Chong, Greater China director at Martin Currie, the Edinburgh-based fund house.

支撐投資者信心的一個事實是，預計中國政府將對國有資產實施大刀闊斧的改革，強令石油和銀行業等領域的企業進行整合、而後公開上市。馬丁可利(Martin Currie)大中華區主管莊明(James Chong)表示，中央政府掌管的國企的總數可能會從目前的約140家降到十幾家。馬丁可利是一家總部位於愛丁堡的基金公司。

Mr Chong adds that Chinese monetary policy has strengthened confidence in the stock market. The People’s Bank of China last month cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves by one percentage point, to 18.5 per cent. Mr Chong believes further cuts are likely, enabling banks to lend more easily to companies and in turn propping up equity valuations.

莊明補充稱，中國的貨幣政策了增強了股市的信心。上月，中國央行將存款準備金率下調1個百分點，至18.5%。莊明相信，中國央行很可能會進一步下調存準率，使銀行更容易向企業放貸，這反過來將支撐股票的估值。

Robert Horrocks, chief investment officer at Matthews Asia, the San Francisco fund house, says: “Some parts [of the stock market] are overheated, for sure.

舊金山基金公司馬修斯亞洲(Matthews Asia)的首席投資官何如克(Robert Horrocks)稱：“（中國股市的）某些板塊肯定是過熱的。

“However, given the intensely bearish sentiment about China that we had going into this bull run, and the practical steps China has been taking to improve both its economy and the markets, I am sceptical of the immediate desire to write off the rally as just another bubble. There is still plenty of value out there if you pick the right names.”

“然而，考慮到我們進入這波牛市時對中國所持的強烈悲觀看法，以及中國爲改善經濟和市場而採取的實際舉措，我對眼下一些人希望把這輪反彈貶爲只是另一個泡沫的做法持懷疑態度。如果你選對了股票，仍可挖掘出大把的價值。”

Other investors are more cautious but stop well short of displaying nervousness. Gemma Godfrey, head of investment strategy at Brooks MacDonald, the UK wealth manager, says: “Chinese stocks have further upside but the road ahead will be bumpy. With the strength of the dollar, the fall in commodity prices, and an eventual rate rise in the US, the outlook for emerging markets is tenuous.”

其他投資者要更謹慎一些，但已不再表現得那麼緊張。英國財富管理公司Brooks MacDonald的投資策略主管傑瑪•戈弗雷(Gemma Godfrey)稱：“中國股市還有進一步上漲空間，但前路崎嶇。在美元堅挺、大宗商品價格下滑以及美國最終將加息的情況下，新興市場的前景充滿變數。”

Heinz Ruettimann, head of emerging market strategy research at Julius Baer, the Swiss private bank, adds: “Everyone is expecting a pullback in the stock market after such a good run. The question is how severe can this pullback be? It is difficult for investors to get a handle on what is cheap or expensive and there could be an accident in the property sector.”

瑞士私人銀行寶盛(Julius Baer)的新興市場策略研究主管海因茨•呂提曼(Heinz Ruettimann)補充稱：“在經歷如此好的漲勢後，每個人都在預期股市會發生回調。問題是這次回調會有多嚴重？對投資者來說，現在弄明白哪支股便宜哪支貴真的很難，而房地產板塊可能會遭遇不測。”

He believes that the government has the credibility and the room to manoeuvre to avoid a large negative event in the stock market. “[Beijing] has embraced pension and healthcare reforms and [an overhaul of] its state-owned enterprises. You really see a $10tn economy that is progressing,” he says.

他相信，中國政府有相應的可信度和迴旋餘地來避免股市發生重大負面事件。他表示：“（北京方面）已積極採取養老金和醫療改革，並（徹底改造）國有企業。你確實可以看到，這個規模達10萬億美元的經濟體正在不斷取得進展。”