諾獎得主警告美國股市經濟泡沫
A growing number of investors believe that US stocks are overvalued, creating the risk of a significant bear market, according to research by Yale University market scholar Robert Shiller.
根據耶魯大學市場研究學者羅伯特席勒(Robert Shiller)的研究，越來越多投資者相信美國股市被高估了，這製造了股市出現大熊市的風險。
The Nobel economics laureate told the Financial Times that his valuation confidence indices, based on investor surveys, show greater fear that the market is overvalued than at any time since the peak of the dotcom bubble in 2000.
這位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主告訴英國《金融時報》，他根據投資者調查編制的估值信心指數表明，目前投資者對於股市被高估的憂慮大於2000年互聯網泡沫高峯後的任何時間。
“It looks to me a bit like a bubble again with essentially a tripling of stock prices since 2009 in just six years and at the same time people losing confidence in the valuation of the market,” he said.
“在我看來這有點像是又一個泡沫，基本上股價在2009年後僅6年的時間裏上升了兩倍，同時人們正在失去對股市估值的信心，”他說。
However, he made clear it remains impossible to time any fall in the market, and cast doubt on whether stocks would drop should the Federal Reserve raise rates later this week. “I’m not looking for any big effect,” he said. “It’s been talked about for so long, everyone knows that it’s coming. It’s just not much of a big deal.”
然而，他明確表示現在還不可能預測市場會在什麼時候下跌，並且質疑了假如美聯儲(Fed)在本週晚些時候加息，股市會因此下跌的前景。“我不期望任何重大影響，”他表示，“這件事已經被談論了很長時間，每個人都知道它會到來。這實在稱不上一件大事。”
He added there was no historical evidence for a link between interest rates and share prices. “You would think that when interest rates are higher people would sell stocks, but the financial world just isn’t that simple.”
他還補充道，沒有歷史根據表明利率和股價之間存在聯繫。“你可能會認爲當利率更高的時候人們會賣出股票，但金融世界沒那麼簡單。”
